2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2781183 20-Sep-2021 15:19

Batman:
Reanalyse:
I suppose one question is that if thirty-three days at Level 4 have not led to zero cases, how many days will ?

If you keep doing the same thing every day and expect a different result.... Most likely you get the same result.

The experts keep saying after a day of a high number of cases, that numbers will keep bouncing around. But it appears that the numbers are reasonably consistent for the last few weeks. They know the problem areas but little has been done to crack down on those areas. A level drop potentially increases the risk a level rise for the rest of NZ in the future as case numbers will likely increase. Delta is and was possible to eliminate but living conditions and poverty and other underground stuff seem to be playing a major part and this goes back to government. Helicopter payments were needed to keep people at home, and prevent the need to work. Level 3 and 4 is all about people staying at home, to break the chains of transmission.

Scott3

3970 posts

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Lifetime subscriber

#2781184 20-Sep-2021 15:21

A big question if we go for a suppression strategy is should we try and save the south island?

Require 14 days MIQ for, and a really good reason for any southbound travel.

Tweak freight networks so that they can run as normal without personnel movement (i.e. Gotta have a South island based driver to collect your truck at the south island ferry terminal, rather than the same driver riding the ferry).

Move all MIQ to the north island (excepting people who are destined for the south island). - perhaps run a red zone flight down every day...

Would mean the south island could enjoy the luxuries and economic output of level 1 (two weeks after the changes are put in, to be sure no recent travelers brought the virus in), while the north island bounces around in levels 2 / 3.

Also means that resources. Could be allocated / sent north when required. (ICU nurses, PPE / Vaccines if we ever run low etc.)

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2781185 20-Sep-2021 15:22

Batman:
trig42:
Has it got into the gangs? This will go on till Christmas if they don't stop the bubble popping.

I'm frustrated now. I've been at home for 5 weeks (not that I mind being home), but I'm seeing my employer dying slowly from a thousand cuts, and I won't be the only one.

Gangs for sure. It's in the prison. Where did the Waikato guy catch it? From the prison for sure.

I recall there was a prison worker that tested positive a few weeks ago.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2781187 20-Sep-2021 15:25

On2or3wheels:
heavenlywild:
She needs to give us a carrot. Vaccinate by x date and you'll be able to travel, or others could come in without MiQ, or whatever.

Really, is the get vaccinated or you might die not enough.

Not for many. I live in an area where there seem to be quite a lot of people who don't want to get vaccinated. We may need some of the hard hitting adverts on TV like they have in Oz. They should have played these during level 4 to stop people breaking the rules.

trig42

5814 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#2781194 20-Sep-2021 15:40

Not many people watch TV any more.

That's also part of the issue. The Government really isn't getting their message to the people they need to see (and understand) it.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2781202 20-Sep-2021 15:50

trig42:

Not many people watch TV any more.

That's also part of the issue. The Government really isn't getting their message to the people they need to see (and understand) it.

Many seem to only use social media and seem to be getting brainwashed. There are certainly some very selfish things going on that is letting everyone who has complied down badly. Little seems to have been made of this by the media, which I think have been very poor during this outbreak.

sen8or

1789 posts

Uber Geek

#2781206 20-Sep-2021 15:56

You'd have to be fairly "off the grid" to have not seen and/or heard the Govt message about getting vaccinated, broadcast media (TV & radio), social media, print media, posters everywhere, word of mouth etc etc etc

The big issue is mixed messaging, the noisey / vocal anti-vaxers (and not just the tin foil hat brigade, but those specifically against Covid) will readily point anyone who will listen to some obscure facebook / insta story written by "an expert" as to why the vaccine is bad. Unfortunately this group has a louder voice on social platforms

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mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2781209 20-Sep-2021 16:05

Scott3:

A big question if we go for a suppression strategy is should we try and save the south island?

Require 14 days MIQ for, and a really good reason for any southbound travel.

Tweak freight networks so that they can run as normal without personnel movement (i.e. Gotta have a South island based driver to collect your truck at the south island ferry terminal, rather than the same driver riding the ferry).

Move all MIQ to the north island (excepting people who are destined for the south island). - perhaps run a red zone flight down every day...

Would mean the south island could enjoy the luxuries and economic output of level 1 (two weeks after the changes are put in, to be sure no recent travelers brought the virus in), while the north island bounces around in levels 2 / 3.

Also means that resources. Could be allocated / sent north when required. (ICU nurses, PPE / Vaccines if we ever run low etc.)

What makes the SI any different to the rest of NZ that is covid free? Eg Wellington region , where there are only 2 ways in.

Batman

Mad Scientist
29766 posts

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Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2781220 20-Sep-2021 16:16

Gangs on fast food delivery runs

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-gang-members-caught-at-auckland-border-with-100000-cash-and-kfc/SDP5QP7DGWQ45ABSDR3XV6RYOU/

heavenlywild

5063 posts

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Trusted

#2781222 20-Sep-2021 16:22

Level 3 for Auckland folks. Elimination is dead I am afraid.

I hope I am wrong but the case numbers will only go up from here.

JPNZ

1547 posts

Uber Geek

#2781223 20-Sep-2021 16:28

As I mentioned previously it had to happen. She sowed the seed last week and elimination is almost impossible with delta.

I'm personally glad, its more than fair time we as a country got on with vaccinations and living with the virus like the rest of the world has.

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Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2781226 20-Sep-2021 16:32

JPNZ:

As I mentioned previously it had to happen. She sowed the seed last week and elimination is almost impossible with delta.

I'm personally glad, its more than fair time we as a country got on with vaccinations and living with the virus like the rest of the world has.

That's very clearly not the message being given.

heavenlywild

5063 posts

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Trusted

#2781227 20-Sep-2021 16:33

Fred99:

JPNZ:

As I mentioned previously it had to happen. She sowed the seed last week and elimination is almost impossible with delta.

I'm personally glad, its more than fair time we as a country got on with vaccinations and living with the virus like the rest of the world has.

That's very clearly not the message being given.

Might not be in so many words but their strategy has certainly loosened compared to before.

Update: Wait, Ardern just said zero tolerance does not equal zero cases. She never said that before even though she keeps on saying that's always been the case, what spin.

JPNZ

1547 posts

Uber Geek

#2781229 20-Sep-2021 16:34

Fred99:

That's very clearly not the message being given.

As I said thats my opinion, I never quoted anyone.

So do you honestly believe we will get to the point of elimination?

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JPNZ

1547 posts

Uber Geek

#2781230 20-Sep-2021 16:36

heavenlywild:

Update: Wait, Ardern just said zero tolerance does not equal zero cases. She never said that before even though she keeps on saying that's always been the case, what spin.

Just heard that... unbelievable

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