|
|
Trusted Lifetime subscriber
Trusted Lifetime subscriber
Trusted Lifetime subscriber
Trusted Lifetime subscriber
Trusted Lifetime subscriber
Trusted Lifetime subscriber
Lifetime subscriber
Scott3:
Our world in data (which has slightly favorable NZ population number), Has us as having passed the USA for first doses, and fast closing in on the EU and Israel.
We have been hitting vaccination out of the park over the last month.
And from the 1pm press conference we know that Auckland (objectively the area of most concern) is slightly ahead of the country overall on first doses. (77% of eligible if I recall correctly vs 74% for the nation overall). Government has a stretch goal for Auckland of 90% of eligible by the time that our level 3 status is reviewed in just under two weeks.
We are seeing signs that we are starting to the hard bit of the vaccination program in terms of getting first doses into people. Yesterday Second doses passed first doses (25,674 vs 24,522), which I can't recall having recently. Hopefully all the government effort will have us at least approaching that stretch goal.
If the decision to go to level 3 tonight does lead to increasing case numbers, (possibly with daily cases topping 1000 in November / December), Our vaccination level is going to be super important.
We know that UK and Israel vaccine numbers arn't quite enough. We have the advantage of fairly fresh vaccines, a fairly low population density. But both those countries have the advantage of some natural immunity form actual infections.
-------
Regarding the general state of play.
All the Media experts are using fairly guarded negitive terms "moving to level 3 is a risk", I think the skepticism here of Auckland ability to decrease case numbers is fairly in line with this.
Watched the TV1 press conference feed today. They had yesterdays number of cases infections in the community in the ticker as 9. Good to see them highlighting this important data point.
So the sequence for 17 Sept - 21 sept data releases are: 9,7,6,6,9. We are not even close to being on top of this.
We also know that the virus has now found it's way into two rival gangs. Obviously a massive challenger for containment attempts.
Haven't found the health order for Level 3 yet. Very interested to see if they mandate vaccinated over 65's to stay home, but think it is probiably just a suggestion.
You might have noticed from the same series of graphs, our vaccination rate has dropped from a peak of around 1.6 doses per 100 people per day in late August and early September, to something closer to 1.0 now.
Meanwhile it's easier to get a vaccination now than it was in the beginning of September. Now that we appear to be past our peak, maybe someone can do some curve fitting to predict where we might be in a few weeks or months.
It would be good to know the vaccination rates for each area and whether there is a correlation with people coming out of level 3/4. Perhaps they feel there no longer any rush to get vaccinated. It would not surprise me if the same is beginning to happen in Auckland, where many people perceive it to be a "South Auckland" problem.
#include <standard.disclaimer>
ID Verified
#include <standard.disclaimer>
|
|
|
