2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2781990 22-Sep-2021 07:44

Scott3:

alexx:

You might have noticed from the same series of graphs, our vaccination rate has dropped from a peak of around 1.6 doses per 100 people per day in late August and early September, to something closer to 1.0 now.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita?country=NZL+AUS+USA+GBR+JPN+PRT+ESP+DNK

Meanwhile it's easier to get a vaccination now than it was in the beginning of September. Now that we appear to be past our peak, maybe someone can do some curve fitting to predict where we might be in a few weeks or months.

It would be good to know the vaccination rates for each area and whether there is a correlation with people coming out of level 3/4. Perhaps they feel there no longer any rush to get vaccinated. It would not surprise me if the same is beginning to happen in Auckland, where many people perceive it to be a "South Auckland" problem.

We should expect a big second bulge in our vaccination rate curve in a couple of weeks. The recommended 6 week gap after that couple of weeks of massive numbers straight after our outbreak was detected.

I am most interested in our first dose numbers at the moment as they are a leading metric. Seems most people that get one dose follow through and finish the course.

The way I see it (if we fail at dropping cases) we have about 2 months before stuff starts to get really intense. People that get their first dose today, and run a 6 week spacing

I haven't watched the 1pm presentations for quite a few days now but I'm curious if the PM is still quoting the total % of those who have been jabbed + those with bookings? That data has been tainted for weeks now, and I'm really surprised she was still using it last week.

With so many people not cancelling their bookings after being jabbed at drive up locations and anti vaxxers trying to undermine the system by poisoning the data first dose bookings are a bit of a shambles now.

I wonder if or when they'll move the default back to 3 weeks, as with no shortage of vaccines now our priority right now needs to be to get everybody with two jabs rather than first jabs into as many people as we can.

Fred99

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#2781992 22-Sep-2021 07:51

Handle9:
Fred99:

Yep. Parliament can ignore high court rulings, but at their peril. National tried with rulings against EQC etc, a decade ago it didn't end up very well. Actually I'm not even sure if it's ended yet.

If they design the legislation and respective amendments correctly the high court would likely not rule against them.

There would be no reason to just as the ERA saw no reason to rule against customs.

I wouldn't underestimate antivaxxers determination to resist all attempts at coercion to get vaxxed, through the courts and also through protest/civil disobedience.

"Beware the zealots" (and they'll be saying the same).

Fred99

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#2781995 22-Sep-2021 07:58

sbiddle:

With so many people not cancelling their bookings after being jabbed at drive up locations and anti vaxxers trying to undermine the system by poisoning the data first dose bookings are a bit of a shambles now.

Is this based on data - or assumption and anecdote?

(Wouldn't surprise me if it's at least partly true)

sbiddle

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#2781999 22-Sep-2021 08:16

RNZ had an interview with Bloomfield before that had some pretty frank admissions. Hopefully this time we can have the discussion about endemic Covid rather than the PM trying to shut him down the last time he raised the issue.

He's said we may never go back to zero cases, and my interpretation of his comments (which could well be taken differently by others) was that we pretty much should not expect a L1 with full freedoms until vaccination rates are at least 90%

tdgeek

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#2782003 22-Sep-2021 08:29

sbiddle:

RNZ had an interview with Bloomfield before that had some pretty frank admissions. Hopefully this time we can have the discussion about endemic Covid rather than the PM trying to shut him down the last time he raised the issue.

He's said we may never go back to zero cases, and my interpretation of his comments (which could well be taken differently by others) was that we pretty much should not expect a L1 with full freedoms until vaccination rates are at least 90%

Id assume Level 1 after the vaccination project is complete means free travel if vaccinated, self isolate at home instead of MIQ if infected (based on the trial soon to commence), so if they are the case, not possible to have zero cases. Elimination moves to the opening up phase

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#2782005 22-Sep-2021 08:32

Driving to work today, and seeing all the cafes open with people outside waiting for coffees and whatnot without a mask in Auckland make my heart sink.

The staff were, to their credit, all wearing masks that I noticed.

Many of our hospitals are at near or at capacity already (Without significant numbers of Covid patients) and there were a lot of medical staff waiting in the lobby to get back into the country and a lot missed out.

I have grave concerns about the next 3 months. If we had already been in lockdown 4.5 weeks, another 1.5 weeks wouldn't have seemed out of line if it meant a much better chance of stamping it out. Even some people not complying under L4 rules, is still less interaction in the public than L3 will bring for Auckland.

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#2782013 22-Sep-2021 08:51

Some people are stupid.

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trig42

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#2782016 22-Sep-2021 09:00

3rd Gang now - Hells Angels Prospect:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300412629/covid19-spreads-to-third-gang-as-hells-angels-prospect-infected

This is where the spread is happening.

IMO it would have been over two weeks ago if it hadn't got into the gangs. This rate, we'll be level 3 (or 4) until November, or 90% vax.

FFS. Maybe the army isn't a horrible idea (I know it will never happen, but it's really frustrating).

GV27

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#2782018 22-Sep-2021 09:10

This really has a teetering-on-the-edge feel to it at the moment. Lots of movement in Auckland this morning.

heavenlywild

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#2782020 22-Sep-2021 09:14

sbiddle:

RNZ had an interview with Bloomfield before that had some pretty frank admissions. Hopefully this time we can have the discussion about endemic Covid rather than the PM trying to shut him down the last time he raised the issue.

He's said we may never go back to zero cases, and my interpretation of his comments (which could well be taken differently by others) was that we pretty much should not expect a L1 with full freedoms until vaccination rates are at least 90%

Agree with your interpretation.

Looks like PM Ardern and the ministers are refusing to tell the frank truth. Dr Bloomfield must be frustrated if he says zero cases is difficult while Ardern keeps on saying it is still on the cards.

The PM is losing credibility every single day.

Batman

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#2782022 22-Sep-2021 09:18

trig42:
3rd Gang now - Hells Angels Prospect:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300412629/covid19-spreads-to-third-gang-as-hells-angels-prospect-infected

This is where the spread is happening.

IMO it would have been over two weeks ago if it hadn't got into the gangs. This rate, we'll be level 3 (or 4) until November, or 90% vax.

FFS. Maybe the army isn't a horrible idea (I know it will never happen, but it's really frustrating).

My take is prison next

wellygary

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#2782027 22-Sep-2021 09:30

sbiddle:

Scott3:

We should expect a big second bulge in our vaccination rate curve in a couple of weeks. The recommended 6 week gap after that couple of weeks of massive numbers straight after our outbreak was detected.

I am most interested in our first dose numbers at the moment as they are a leading metric. Seems most people that get one dose follow through and finish the course.

The way I see it (if we fail at dropping cases) we have about 2 months before stuff starts to get really intense. People that get their first dose today, and run a 6 week spacing

I haven't watched the 1pm presentations for quite a few days now but I'm curious if the PM is still quoting the total % of those who have been jabbed + those with bookings? That data has been tainted for weeks now, and I'm really surprised she was still using it last week.

With so many people not cancelling their bookings after being jabbed at drive up locations and anti vaxxers trying to undermine the system by poisoning the data first dose bookings are a bit of a shambles now.

I wonder if or when they'll move the default back to 3 weeks, as with no shortage of vaccines now our priority right now needs to be to get everybody with two jabs rather than first jabs into as many people as we can.

I've been watching the 1 dose Vax+booked numbers for a while and in about 2 weeks there will not be any "booked" left ...

They are vaxxing twice as fast as new bookings are coming in... (the net gain is only crowing by about 10~12K per day..)

its gonna make getting to 90% hard...

Although 90% of "what" is the big question, everyone admits the HSU count the MoH are using is low, so while it makes the numbers look good, in reality it leaves us with a less than accurate denominator...

cshwone

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#2782029 22-Sep-2021 09:35

networkn:

Driving to work today, and seeing all the cafes open with people outside waiting for coffees and whatnot without a mask in Auckland make my heart sink.

The staff were, to their credit, all wearing masks that I noticed.

Many of our hospitals are at near or at capacity already (Without significant numbers of Covid patients) and there were a lot of medical staff waiting in the lobby to get back into the country and a lot missed out.

I have grave concerns about the next 3 months. If we had already been in lockdown 4.5 weeks, another 1.5 weeks wouldn't have seemed out of line if it meant a much better chance of stamping it out. Even some people not complying under L4 rules, is still less interaction in the public than L3 will bring for Auckland.

Very disappointing. Since L2 started in Wellington my subjective observations in the Wellington CBD is that the vast majority are wearing masks even outdoors as they walk around. Certainly in shops and places like Lambton Court (the food place) compliance is 100%.

Even at home here in Masterton everyone is observing the rules rigorously.

Buster

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#2782033 22-Sep-2021 09:48

At this point I am not optimistic we will rid ourselves of Covid this year and into 2022 either. Pleasantly surprised at the Govt remaining reasonably firm and trying to stay the course. At least good decisions are being made in a bad situation. I mean, they got some/most of it right.

It's like we are in this brief period with an opportunity to vaccinate for all we are worth (hopefully to a lower age), but it's never going to be quite enough, because we won't get 100% uptake and also the vaccine isn't 100% effective against the changing Virus.

Some (many more than now) are going to be in a world of hurt as we enter the new normal.

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#2782037 22-Sep-2021 10:05

wellygary:

its gonna make getting to 90% hard...

Although 90% of "what" is the big question, everyone admits the HSU count the MoH are using is low, so while it makes the numbers look good, in reality it leaves us with a less than accurate denominator...

I think if and when they allow all people over 6 months to vaccinate it would get better overall.

Whether you get to 90 we'll see. But the less non eligible the better the overall

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