2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2785195 27-Sep-2021 19:37

Batman:

interesting high court statement (assuming it is as it says and i think i understand it)

"He also said there was no requirement in the New Zealand Bill of Rights or any other piece of legislation that said that secondary legislation could not contain a provision that limiting one or more rights set out in the bill of rights."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126502673/former-border-worker-who-lost-her-job-after-not-getting-jabbed-loses-high-court-challenge

There is nothing inherent in the bill of rights act that prevents parliament from over riding the rights described in it. NZ doesn't really have a constitution like somewhere like the US or even Australia.

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#2785197 27-Sep-2021 19:39

clinty:

This was covered off (obliquely) in todays briefing ( sorry no transcript yet, here is the youtube time code ) by Dr Bloomfield

Someone at Auckland Public health did some modelling around a couple of the active sub clusters and the overall outbreak

One of the sub cluster ( possibly the one that keeps turning up in Police/Corrections) appears to have an R value of around 1 - which is what is giving us this "long tail". The rest of the out break is well below 1

ie - one cluster is causing the issue. Dr Bloomfield said there was good engagement with this cluster - so hopefully this will start to come down, although he said still another 45-50 cases may appear

Clint

The problem is that Dr B has been telling us that for weeks now, "another 50 cases".. the problem is they seem to keep coming

Dr Ashley Bloomfield: About 50 more Covid cases expected among ‘very close contacts’

SUN, SEP 12 • SOURCE: 1 NEWS
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/dr-ashley-bloomfield-50-more-covid-cases-expected-among-very-close-contacts

That lower number of 14 cases today is encouraging," Dr Ashley Bloomfield said. Based on the number of close household contacts we are expecting about 50 to 60 more cases just with this group, he said.

Tuesday, 21 September 2021
https://www.odt.co.nz/star-news/star-national/14-new-cases-outbreak-breach-fines-increased

Oblivian

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#2785198 27-Sep-2021 19:40

Batman:

interesting high court statement (assuming it is as it says and i think i understand it)

"He also said there was no requirement in the New Zealand Bill of Rights or any other piece of legislation that said that secondary legislation could not contain a provision that limiting one or more rights set out in the bill of rights."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126502673/former-border-worker-who-lost-her-job-after-not-getting-jabbed-loses-high-court-challenge

Correct. The bill of rights is the base framework, for example minimum, or where no other legislation exists.

So you can override it with a health order for instance. Always facepalm at people shouting 'a breach of the bill of rights!'.

https://www.justice.govt.nz/about/learn-about-the-justice-system/how-the-justice-system-works/the-basis-for-all-law/the-new-zealand-bill-of-rights-act/

The rights and freedoms protected by the Bill of Rights Act are not absolute rights but are subject to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society.

Technofreak

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#2785200 27-Sep-2021 20:10

ajobbins:

Technofreak:

The overall death rate for the flu was 10.4/100,000 compared to Covid which was 203.6/100,000. Covid is about 20 time worse than the flu.

The hospitalisation rate for the flu was 149.9/100,000 and for Covid only 65.8/100,000. Covid is just half as bad as the flu

The number of cases for the flu was 10,856.9/100,000 and for Covid 12,879.3/100,000. Covid is slightly worse than the flu.

Are a lot of people dying that are not getting hospitalised?

Considering only a fraction of those hospitalised go on to die, yet the death figure far exceeds the hospitalisation figure, it appears one of those numbers is WAY off

Agreed, hence part of the reason for my post.

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Handle9

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#2785204 27-Sep-2021 20:19

Handle9:
Ge0rge:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/451916/mandatory-vaccination-order-under-spotlight-in-high-court

Seems that it's not done with yet.

Looks like that one got closed out as well https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126502673/former-border-worker-who-lost-her-job-after-not-getting-jabbed-loses-high-court-challenge

This article on Newsroom provides a good summary of the issues for businesses. It's a pretty difficult area for many of them to navigate.

Technofreak

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#2785205 27-Sep-2021 20:30

Batman:

Technofreak:

Perhaps someone can cast some light on this for me.

does your hospitalization rate (which seems way off) match the one here? under hospitalizations

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

No it doesn't. I presume you mean this figure of 2,988,684 new admissions?

I added up the weekly hospital admission numbers from here https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254477/weekly-number-of-covid-19-hospitalizations-in-the-us-by-age/ which apparently come from the CDC. They only total 217,000.

I've found numbers for total Covid cases varying between 33,000,000 and 42,500,000. That in it self is quite a large variation but still doesn't explain the hospitalisation numbers I came up with.

I had been onto that page you linked and had looked right past that number of 2,988,684. When you look at it, that number is close to being in line with what's happened here in New Zealand. Very roughly we have 10% of those with Covid in hospital. There some thing awry with the statista hospitalisation data

My main reason for using the Statista data was it was broken down into age groups which gives a much better over view of what is happening. For example the over all death rate per 100,000 is 203.6 but for 18-49 year olds it is only 27.3 with a big jump for 50-64 of 181/100,000 and 990/100,000 for over 65.

As suggested by someone else I will take a look at the European figures as well.

It does possibly seem that over all the infection rate isn't much worse than the flu, BUT if you do get it your chance of requiring hospital treatment rises significantly as does your risk of dying.

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#2785206 27-Sep-2021 20:31

Technofreak:
Perhaps someone can cast some light on this for me.

I've been trying to get a comparison between the impact of the annual flu and Covid to get figures to counter the argument that Covid isn't really any different to the flu.

Since we haven't had enough Covid in New Zealand (thankfully) to produce any useful figures I have been going through the US data.

I used the 2018/18 flu year as a yardstick and looked at the various age groups and compared this to the Covid data. The figures I have found show a significant increase in deaths as might be expected. However the number of cases per 100,000 and hospitalisations per 100,000 is very similar to or less than the flu which I find rather odd considering the number of deaths.

To give examples.

The overall death rate for the flu was 10.4/100,000 compared to Covid which was 203.6/100,000. Covid is about 20 time worse than the flu.

The hospitalisation rate for the flu was 149.9/100,000 and for Covid only 65.8/100,000. Covid is just half as bad as the flu

The number of cases for the flu was 10,856.9/100,000 and for Covid 12,879.3/100,000. Covid is slightly worse than the flu.

Interestingly, measures (besides lockdowns) that work against covid19 (masks, washing your hands, staying home while sick) would also work against the flu.

Looking at flu tracker and stories from this year/2020 vs earlier years, we've had a lot loss flu.. Now if people keep up the big 3 things against covid, it'll work against the flu as well.

Technofreak

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#2785210 27-Sep-2021 20:41

kyhwana2:

Interestingly, measures (besides lockdowns) that work against covid19 (masks, washing your hands, staying home while sick) would also work against the flu. Looking at flu tracker and stories from this year/2020 vs earlier years, we've had a lot loss flu.. Now if people keep up the big 3 things against covid, it'll work against the flu as well.

That's one reason why I chose a flu year where Covid and any measures like mask wearing, sanitising of hands etc weren't a factor.

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Technofreak

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#2785263 27-Sep-2021 20:49

Now I not that the CDC Total New Admission figure of 2,988,684 has a footnote; The start of consistent reporting of hospital admissions data was August 1, 2020.

This data does not include any admission before the 1st of August 2020. That is obvious when you look at data linked from that page, there are no graphs with data prior to 1/8/2021.

Shit it's hard to get good data to compare. All the other figures like total report cases and deaths start at day zero.

As a rough stab I'd say, without doing a lot of digging, the total admissions are probably around 4,300,000. I still need to find an age group break down. I think it's there on the CDC site somewhere.

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Handle9

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#2785264 27-Sep-2021 20:51

Technofreak:

Now I not that the CDC Total New Admission figure of 2,988,684 has a footnote; The start of consistent reporting of hospital admissions data was August 1, 2020.

This data does not include any admission before the 1st of August 2020. That is obvious when you look at data linked from that page, there are no graphs with data prior to 1/8/2021.

Shit it's hard to get good data to compare. All the other figures like total report cases and deaths start at day zero.

As a rough stab I'd say, without doing a lot of digging, the total admissions are probably around 4,300,000. I still need to find an age group break down. I think it's there on the CDC site somewhere.

This article in the Lancet is somewhat useful.

Technofreak

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#2785343 27-Sep-2021 21:51

Handle9:

Technofreak:

Now I not that the CDC Total New Admission figure of 2,988,684 has a footnote; The start of consistent reporting of hospital admissions data was August 1, 2020.

This data does not include any admission before the 1st of August 2020. That is obvious when you look at data linked from that page, there are no graphs with data prior to 1/8/2021.

Shit it's hard to get good data to compare. All the other figures like total report cases and deaths start at day zero.

As a rough stab I'd say, without doing a lot of digging, the total admissions are probably around 4,300,000. I still need to find an age group break down. I think it's there on the CDC site somewhere.

This article in the Lancet is somewhat useful.

Thanks for that. I've had a quick read, I'll read again tomorrow in more detail.

In the meantime my very rough back of the fag packet calculations show these figures. I've had to make estimates with some of the age group figures as the CDC and Statista totals didn't match. I've used the Statista percentages to factor the CDC totals. I think they're pretty close.

It's getting late, I'll recheck tomorrow and dig up some European figures that will hopefully verify my numbers. I'm not looking for absolute accuracy but figures that give a good indication.

Some of the hospitalisation figures don't track as expected for the 50-64 and 65+ age groups. One reason I can think of is that these two groups have a higher proportion of people who succumb before they can be admitted to hospital.

It would appear that the chances of catching Covid aren't much higher than the flu, but once you have it the risks rise significantly.

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ajobbins

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#2785359 27-Sep-2021 23:36

Technofreak:

It would appear that the chances of catching Covid aren't much higher than the flu, but once you have it the risks rise significantly.

The other data challenge you have is that you are summarising stats that start at a time when nobody (other than trial participants) were vaccinated through continually rising vaccination rates that clearly have an impact on all the metics commonly tracked (infection, hospitalisation, death).

Looking at longer term data in aggregate isn't going to give an accurate view.

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#2785360 27-Sep-2021 23:46

Technofreak:

It would appear that the chances of catching Covid aren't much higher than the flu, but once you have it the risks rise significantly.

your calculations are they based on public health measure (?what measures) vs no public health measure

mattwnz

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#2785366 28-Sep-2021 02:00

wellygary:

About 50 more Covid cases expected among ‘very close contacts’

Yeah well...officials also predicted 'up to' 120 total cases for this outbreak about 5 weeks ago. Way out on that one https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-up-to-120-cases-expected-7-already-confirmed-nzs-outbreak-can-be-traced-back-to-nsw/XVC6J2XZVGGK3BQ5YBC47R64H4/

It seems we weren't as fast and early to lockdown as we thought we were, when you compare use to Queensland who have managed to eliminate Delta after their outbreak.

IMO it largely comes down to testing, and Aucklands testing numbers are poor and dropping, when you factor in that some of these tests are also likely MIQ returnees, and retests for close contacts etc. It was reported that only 24% of people in the suburb that was asked to be tested by the PM, bothered to get tested which is very poor. Only now do they seem to be going door to door testing. But there hasn't really been any recent major calls to the public to get out and get tested especially in problem areas, especially when that is what could be preventing a level change..

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#2785368 28-Sep-2021 06:33

Some of these attempts at estimation miss the fact that New Zealand's population skews older than the comparisons. The death rates will be consequently higher.

Personally I think the number of deaths quoted are unacceptable, without even taking those factors into account.

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