2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 1791 | 1792 | 1793 | 1794 | 1795 | 1796 | 1797 | 1798 | 1799 | 1800 | 1801 | ... | 2429

5705 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3666

Lifetime subscriber

#2785456 28-Sep-2021 09:07

wellygary:

Buster:

Might end up with a relatively small list of vaccinated people that can't be connected to anything.

Apparently new NHIs are generated if they cannot match to an existing one...

If you get as COVID Jab its pretty much guaranteed to be matched to an NHI...

Correct. Typically, a new NHI is created when someone is brought into ED unconscious and cannot be positively identified. There are also some people who have deliberately created 2 or more medical identities to e.g. be able to get multiple prescriptions of opioids. Some people have 3 or 4 NHIs.

There is a "merge" process whereby NHIs are linked together if they are identified as belonging to the same patient. There is also an "unmerge" if a merge is subsequently found to be wrong. Merges and unmerges are notified to all DHBs to update their systems.

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2785459 28-Sep-2021 09:20

GV27:

tdgeek:

But you also need to factor in, that it hasn't been here for 330 days, and we are at level 2 and that will remain so for some time, until AKL has 0-4 cases each day

This isn't quite true though, weren't there some near-misses with MIQ workers getting infected around the time of the fishing crew arrivals?

Viking Bay? Near misses happen, that's unavoidable, but nothing has got out of MIQ for 330 odd days. Unless the media has that wrong

Technofreak

6657 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3477

Trusted

#2785473 28-Sep-2021 09:37

mattwnz:

Yeah well...officials also predicted 'up to' 120 total cases for this outbreak about 5 weeks ago. Way out on that one https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-up-to-120-cases-expected-7-already-confirmed-nzs-outbreak-can-be-traced-back-to-nsw/XVC6J2XZVGGK3BQ5YBC47R64H4/

It seems we weren't as fast and early to lockdown as we thought we were, when you compare use to Queensland who have managed to eliminate Delta after their outbreak.

IMO it largely comes down to testing, and Aucklands testing numbers are poor and dropping, when you factor in that some of these tests are also likely MIQ returnees, and retests for close contacts etc. It was reported that only 24% of people in the suburb that was asked to be tested by the PM, bothered to get tested which is very poor. Only now do they seem to be going door to door testing. But there hasn't really been any recent major calls to the public to get out and get tested especially in problem areas, especially when that is what could be preventing a level change..

That's not my recollection of what they said. They said that when the first case was identified they expected there could be around 120 already infected in the community. That wasn't an end figure that was a starting figure.

In other words, if the infection didn't spread any further from that point, we could expect to see another 120 infections identified. Naturally the virus was going to be spreading so effectively when the first infection was identified the authorities expected there was already 120 people out there potentially spreading it.

Sony Xperia XA2 running Sailfish OS. https://sailfishos.org The true independent open source mobile OS
Samsung Galaxy Tab S6
Dell Inspiron 14z i5

frankv

5705 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3666

Lifetime subscriber

#2785476 28-Sep-2021 09:39

Technofreak:

Perhaps someone can cast some light on this for me.

I've been trying to get a comparison between the impact of the annual flu and Covid to get figures to counter the argument that Covid isn't really any different to the flu.

Since we haven't had enough Covid in New Zealand (thankfully) to produce any useful figures I have been going through the US data.

[snip]

Am I missing something?

Are a lot of people dying that are not getting hospitalised?

From https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm -- 2019 influenza and pneumonia total was 49,783.

From https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm -- 2020 covid19 deaths was 377,883

From https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm -- excess deaths over expected in 2020 was in the range 676,466 - 848,138, depending how you calculate "expected deaths", which depends on the age profile of the population and I guess a bunch of socio-economic factors. So covid deaths are hugely under-reported.

So, depending on what figures you use, covid is 7.6 to 13 to 17 times worse than the flu, even when people are wearing masks and getting locked down.

However, anti-vaxxers claim that the covid numbers are inflated by doctors/hospitals claiming it to get $$$ and/or by counting every death where covid was present as a "covid death".

What I found unanswerable was that there had been 504,000 more actual deaths in the USA in 2020 cf 2019. Typical year-on-year increases in prior years had been of the order of 20,000 - 25,000.

NB: for some CDC yearly counts, their "year" for some stats starts in February, I think. In other cases it start 2 January 2020, for ease of doing weekly stats.

Batman

Mad Scientist
30014 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6217

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2785494 28-Sep-2021 09:44

Technofreak:

mattwnz:

Yeah well...officials also predicted 'up to' 120 total cases for this outbreak about 5 weeks ago. Way out on that one https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-up-to-120-cases-expected-7-already-confirmed-nzs-outbreak-can-be-traced-back-to-nsw/XVC6J2XZVGGK3BQ5YBC47R64H4/

It seems we weren't as fast and early to lockdown as we thought we were, when you compare use to Queensland who have managed to eliminate Delta after their outbreak.

IMO it largely comes down to testing, and Aucklands testing numbers are poor and dropping, when you factor in that some of these tests are also likely MIQ returnees, and retests for close contacts etc. It was reported that only 24% of people in the suburb that was asked to be tested by the PM, bothered to get tested which is very poor. Only now do they seem to be going door to door testing. But there hasn't really been any recent major calls to the public to get out and get tested especially in problem areas, especially when that is what could be preventing a level change..

That's not my recollection of what they said. They said that when the first case was identified they expected there could be around 120 already infected in the community. That wasn't an end figure that was a starting figure.

yes every day they throw out a number that is not cumulative, and it confuses people.

also people comparing the AKL response to the WTG response is completely ignoring the fact that when WTG had "covid" it was seeded by 3 people which they know all about, everywhere they've been, when they got infected.

unlike AKL, when they had that 1 case, they have no idea where it's seeded, and applying the same tool to AKL + WTG + rest of country, got WTG to zero, luckily nobody took it to the other parts of the country, and AKL the measure did not work on the underworld, the underprivileged, unfortunately it seems that there's where the virus was hiding the whole time.

GV27

5978 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4212

#2785498 28-Sep-2021 09:52

Batman:

unlike AKL, when they had that 1 case, they have no idea where it's seeded, and applying the same tool to AKL + WTG + rest of country, got WTG to zero, luckily nobody took it to the other parts of the country, and AKL the measure did not work on the underworld, the underprivileged, unfortunately it seems that there's where the virus was hiding the whole time.

Given the compliance issues there aren't going to disappear, I'd really like to know what the plan is if we aren't at *whatever we need to be at next Monday* to move to L3.

Leaving things week-to-week will torch any compliance resolve Auckland has left, which I suspect is waning with each passing day of uncertainty.

Lenovo

Shop now for Lenovo laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

frankv

5705 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3666

Lifetime subscriber

#2785502 28-Sep-2021 09:58

One reason I can think of is that these two groups have a higher proportion of people who succumb before they can be admitted to hospital.

In the big New York / New Jersey outbreak in April 2020, they got to the point where hospitals were overwhelmed and turning away new cases. Hence at the time death rates in those states were in the region of 7-10%. (Even now, New York's death rate overall is 2.2%). Turning patients away would skew the stats on hospitalisations vs deaths.

Technofreak

6657 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3477

Trusted

#2785507 28-Sep-2021 10:07

frankv:

Technofreak:

Perhaps someone can cast some light on this for me.

I've been trying to get a comparison between the impact of the annual flu and Covid to get figures to counter the argument that Covid isn't really any different to the flu.

Since we haven't had enough Covid in New Zealand (thankfully) to produce any useful figures I have been going through the US data.

[snip]

Am I missing something?

Are a lot of people dying that are not getting hospitalised?

From https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm -- 2019 influenza and pneumonia total was 49,783.

From https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm -- 2020 covid19 deaths was 377,883

From https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm -- excess deaths over expected in 2020 was in the range 676,466 - 848,138, depending how you calculate "expected deaths", which depends on the age profile of the population and I guess a bunch of socio-economic factors. So covid deaths are hugely under-reported.

So, depending on what figures you use, covid is 7.6 to 13 to 17 times worse than the flu, even when people are wearing masks and getting locked down.

However, anti-vaxxers claim that the covid numbers are inflated by doctors/hospitals claiming it to get $$$ and/or by counting every death where covid was present as a "covid death".

What I found unanswerable was that there had been 504,000 more actual deaths in the USA in 2020 cf 2019. Typical year-on-year increases in prior years had been of the order of 20,000 - 25,000.

NB: for some CDC yearly counts, their "year" for some stats starts in February, I think. In other cases it start 2 January 2020, for ease of doing weekly stats.

As you have noted it is hard to get a hard figure but all the data shows Covid is much worse than the seasonal flu.

Some have pointed out the total Covid figures will be depressed due to measures like mask wearing social distancing, and more recently the vaccines etc, and these will skew the numbers I came up with. I realise that and there are other similar limitations with my numbers but I needed to start somewhere.

Using public data I wanted to be able to show that Covid was indeed much worse than the the flu and I'm happy enough with the numbers I got. I can factor them by half and still make a case. For interests sake I will look at the European data and do some more refining of my calculations

When I take in isolation the infection figures I came up with I can see how some people can get sucked in by some of the data and the "experts" spruiking their cherry picked data and saying Covid is no worse than the flu. They won't be taking into consideration the effects of masks, social distancing etc in suppressing transmission.

Sony Xperia XA2 running Sailfish OS. https://sailfishos.org The true independent open source mobile OS
Samsung Galaxy Tab S6
Dell Inspiron 14z i5

Technofreak

6657 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3477

Trusted

#2785510 28-Sep-2021 10:14

Batman:

yes every day they throw out a number that is not cumulative, and it confuses people.

also people comparing the AKL response to the WTG response is completely ignoring the fact that when WTG had "covid" it was seeded by 3 people which they know all about, everywhere they've been, when they got infected.

unlike AKL, when they had that 1 case, they have no idea where it's seeded, and applying the same tool to AKL + WTG + rest of country, got WTG to zero, luckily nobody took it to the other parts of the country, and AKL the measure did not work on the underworld, the underprivileged, unfortunately it seems that there's where the virus was hiding the whole time.

People don't listen to what was said. I'm stunned by the level of comprehension displayed by some people. Then it gets repeated and repeated then becomes "fact". We can blame the likes of Facebook for a lot of "facts".

The NZHerald doesn't help with that headline about the outbreak, because reading that without reading the article could make you think they were expecting 120 total.

The media need to be a bit more considered with some of their headlines especially around Covid. There's too much attention grabbing.

Sony Xperia XA2 running Sailfish OS. https://sailfishos.org The true independent open source mobile OS
Samsung Galaxy Tab S6
Dell Inspiron 14z i5

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2785511 28-Sep-2021 10:17

GV27:

Leaving things week-to-week will torch any compliance resolve Auckland has left, which I suspect is waning with each passing day of uncertainty.

Thats the conundrum. Lack of compliance has caused this, and the end result will add to lack of compliance. Downward spiral.

Oblivian

7345 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2117

ID Verified

#2785514 28-Sep-2021 10:30

tdgeek:

Thats the conundrum. Lack of compliance has caused this, and the end result will add to lack of compliance. Downward spiral.

Just like how they make feel good stories like this stick out. But will be taken wrong by a few.

We've done good (aka 'I know we've been breaking the rules, but we'll take the pat on the back anyway - let me out already!') so good news, we're planning to let you do even more (so therefore my badness was justified even though it was "only me", and I can do it more now, right?)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-alert-level-review-on-way-with-new-vaccine-passport-deputy-prime-minister-grant-robertson/MSIFAHGCUCWT6YYW7F6L3NDUWY/

HP

Shop now for HP laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

GV27

5978 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4212

#2785515 28-Sep-2021 10:33

Oblivian:

Just like how they make feel good stories like this stick out. But will be taken wrong by a few.

We've done good (aka 'I know we've been breaking the rules, but we'll take the pat on the back anyway - let me out already!') so good news, we're planning to let you do even more (so therefore my badness was justified even though it was only me, and I can do it more now, right?)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-alert-level-review-on-way-with-new-vaccine-passport-deputy-prime-minister-grant-robertson/MSIFAHGCUCWT6YYW7F6L3NDUWY/

Yea I found that really weird - vague overtures towards freedoms some time in November, but no immediate clarity around the next seven days. A number of ways to interpret it - everything's fine, we're planning for even more relaxations so it's not that bad vs. it's going to run beyond next week and Nov is the earliest you can expect to have looser travel restrictions?

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2785518 28-Sep-2021 10:42

GV27:

Yea I found that really weird - vague overtures towards freedoms some time in November, but no immediate clarity around the next seven days. A number of ways to interpret it - everything's fine, we're planning for even more relaxations so it's not that bad vs. it's going to run beyond next week and Nov is the earliest you can expect to have looser travel restrictions?

Maybe they could give a formula? At up to x cases per day for x days = Alert level 2? That makes it black and white, each 1pm presser updates the public at 1-05pm when cases are announced. Thats the only clarity that can exist IMO. End of the day, no matter what positives are put out there, to achieve what is required for such positive's to turn to reality, it needs cases to stop spreading. Maybe they need to dispense with the upbeatness and and just draw that line

wellygary

8821 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 5303

#2785522 28-Sep-2021 10:46

tdgeek:

GV27:

Leaving things week-to-week will torch any compliance resolve Auckland has left, which I suspect is waning with each passing day of uncertainty.

Thats the conundrum. Lack of compliance has caused this, and the end result will add to lack of compliance. Downward spiral.

Although there does appear to be a ray of hope....

This morning the Locations of Interest was 108, that's the lowest I've seen in this tail,

Also there was no locations added first thing this morning and yesterday only saw 2 locations added....

( there were 16 locations from the 11th September that will fall off tomorrow, so we could finally get down to double figures... )

Technofreak

6657 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 3477

Trusted

#2785524 28-Sep-2021 10:56

frankv:

What I found unanswerable was that there had been 504,000 more actual deaths in the USA in 2020 cf 2019. Typical year-on-year increases in prior years had been of the order of 20,000 - 25,000.

This type of evidence is impossible to refute. Also that number is in the same order of magnitude as the other calculations for Covid deaths. One piece of data correlates with the other.

Fortunately we don't have the same level of Covid infections and/or deaths in New Zealand but as a consequence we therefore are unable to produce similar figures. In fact our deaths have possibly decreased due to the lack flu caused by the border closures. Our isolation from the real impact of Covid and where the data comes from doesn't help when it comes to trying to convince some people of the severity of Covid.

Sony Xperia XA2 running Sailfish OS. https://sailfishos.org The true independent open source mobile OS
Samsung Galaxy Tab S6
Dell Inspiron 14z i5

1 | ... | 1791 | 1792 | 1793 | 1794 | 1795 | 1796 | 1797 | 1798 | 1799 | 1800 | 1801 | ... | 2429