2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2787256 30-Sep-2021 18:27

Handle9:

The covid response has always been intensely political. You are messing with peoples rights to move, associate and work.

Well "everything is politics".

For the most part though, there's been consensus between parties and widespread public support (almost unanimous) for the elimination strategy.

The media has consistently been putting grievances from minorities adversely affected on the front pages, and while that's not to say that those affected don't deserve full sympathy and support - and details of NZ's response such as affecting those exposed to scrutiny - IMO at times it's been unhinged and unbalanced.

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#2787257 30-Sep-2021 18:27

mattwnz:

But aren't they still planning on having MIQ and home isolation (they are currently doing trials for select people) next year anyway, as well as a lot of testing and suppression?. The death numbers are low ATM, because in this case the MOH have said that it is mainly younger people catching it, and the health system hasn't been overwhelmed in NZ yet. But once it hits rest homes etc, it causes a lot of death. A lot of the death last year was from older people, although it does also kill younger people. In Oz the numbers of deaths are not great. Vaccination will however help reduce this a lot, as long as vaccines are effective against other variants, and opening up potentially brings in more variants. We have just been dealing with Delta from just a single case getting in. Hopefully vaccines will continue to improve.

We are more open than Australia as we have more MIQ spaces and unlike Oz, we don't charge returning NZers for MIQ. China are still very closed off, and they are following elimination, and even testing kiwifruit for the virus.

What would you do? Its either elimination or live with it.

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#2787258 30-Sep-2021 18:29

mattwnz:

That is why payments from the government were needed, which were then paid to everyone, or targeted to certain areas. They did helicopter payments in other countries to help with the effects of lockdowns. They also discussed this on TV news a couple of nights ago. IMO it was false economy not to do helicopter payments. Instead what they did was the wage subsidy, which was far more helpful for middle income earners. Many who saved this money and once lockdown ended, they had all this cash saved to go out and buy houses.

What?? The Wage Subsidy "saved this money and once lockdown ended, they had all this cash saved to go out and buy houses."

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#2787259 30-Sep-2021 18:32

Maybe someone has already done this somewhere, but I threw some of the key stats going back to start of Sept that the MoH publish each day in their press release into a Google Sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTNCVXunDgqEcj0dDkIwkXX3tQt3r2cYBOqWBnfMVlDZCWiID0MgyfCirrDxErLDi8pS4H59fAuTP08/pubhtml

Interesting to visualise. The testing numbers are interesting, massive peaks are throughs with Monday consistently being a low testing number day.

Case number 7 day rolling average has basically been flat for the last 3 weeks.

Note dates relate to press release date, so numbers are for the 24 hours to 9am that day

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#2787329 30-Sep-2021 19:56

ajobbins:

Maybe someone has already done this somewhere, but I threw some of the key stats going back to start of Sept that the MoH publish each day in their press release into a Google Sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTNCVXunDgqEcj0dDkIwkXX3tQt3r2cYBOqWBnfMVlDZCWiID0MgyfCirrDxErLDi8pS4H59fAuTP08/pubhtml

Interesting to visualise. The testing numbers are interesting, massive peaks are throughs with Monday consistently being a low testing number day.

Case number 7 day rolling average has basically been flat for the last 3 weeks.

Note dates relate to press release date, so numbers are for the 24 hours to 9am that day

wow. this shows we were going nowhere, with level 4, and nowhere with level 3.

gzt

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#2787336 30-Sep-2021 20:22

wellygary:
Scott3:
"This will provide motivation for fraud - an anti-vaxxer could easily book a vaccine appointment and pay someone to receive it on their behalf, for example."

I was thinking about that the other day, but for it to work you need find
a) Someone who wants to give up their ability to have their own vax passport, or
b) Is prepared to have 4 doses, (so they can get their own)...

Both are pretty big points for the "vaxee" to agree to..

The number of insane level anti-vaxx people is so low it's not worth worrying about. In any case, it's far better to focus on achieving a high vaccination rate and keeping it high.

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Oblivian

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#2787397 30-Sep-2021 21:29

Yeah. Those people who don't like the idea of being monitored for 2 weeks..

Two new exposure events have been identified at Middlemore Hospital after two patients tested positive on Wednesday night.

And one of the two chose to "self-discharge" after learning about their positive result.

Sixty-six patients have been identified as close contacts. Currently there are 34 who remain at the hospital and they have been moved to an isolation ward.

Though, I'm not even sure 2 weeks is the norm with one of the school kids going symptomatic AFTER the 12 day negative.

mattwnz

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#2787398 30-Sep-2021 21:40

Time for some new dedicated Covid centre’s to take the load and risk of hospitals and staff. Hospitals and staff in NSW seem to be having a bad time ATM

gzt

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#2787401 30-Sep-2021 21:51

Batman: i wouldn't worry about it. if everyone has immunity, it'll be alright, your chances are no different from RSV for example.

There are still many unknowns with Covid-19. For example we do know - vaccinated people can still become infected asymptomatically and pass on the virus to other people vaccinated or not. We don't know - will the virus mutate in these conditions and how severe will those mutations be?

mattwnz

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#2787402 30-Sep-2021 21:56

Apparently vaccination could cut the R0 by about 50 percent. But I have heard conflicting info about this.

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#2787426 30-Sep-2021 22:34

mattwnz: Time for some new dedicated Covid centre’s to take the load and risk of hospitals and staff. Hospitals and staff in NSW seem to be having a bad time ATM

Do you want to take the staff out of the hospitals and put them in a shed? There is a finite amount of people, putting some in a “Covid centre” doesn’t solve anything.

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Scott3

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#2787428 30-Sep-2021 22:38

ajobbins:

Maybe someone has already done this somewhere, but I threw some of the key stats going back to start of Sept that the MoH publish each day in their press release into a Google Sheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTNCVXunDgqEcj0dDkIwkXX3tQt3r2cYBOqWBnfMVlDZCWiID0MgyfCirrDxErLDi8pS4H59fAuTP08/pubhtml

Interesting to visualise. The testing numbers are interesting, massive peaks are throughs with Monday consistently being a low testing number day.

Case number 7 day rolling average has basically been flat for the last 3 weeks.

Note dates relate to press release date, so numbers are for the 24 hours to 9am that day

That Trend line is stubbornly horizontal for the last couple of weeks:

Daily cases (showing which have exposure events)

Batman:

wow. this shows we were going nowhere, with level 4, and nowhere with level 3.

Full impact of level 3 will only just start to be impacting the results now. Takes a few days from exposure to start to show symptoms, get tested, and results to hit the stats.

Batman

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#2787433 30-Sep-2021 23:01

gzt:
Batman: i wouldn't worry about it. if everyone has immunity, it'll be alright, your chances are no different from RSV for example.

There are still many unknowns with Covid-19. For example we do know - vaccinated people can still become infected asymptomatically and pass on the virus to other people vaccinated or not. We don't know - will the virus mutate in these conditions and how severe will those mutations be?

in general if left alone (eg 3rd world) mutations that make virus less lethal get passed on and mutations that make virus more lethal die off with their victims.

but we are not leaving the virus alone (1st world) so who knows

mattwnz

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#2787439 30-Sep-2021 23:26

Handle9:
mattwnz: Time for some new dedicated Covid centre’s to take the load and risk of hospitals and staff. Hospitals and staff in NSW seem to be having a bad time ATM

Do you want to take the staff out of the hospitals and put them in a shed? There is a finite amount of people, putting some in a “Covid centre” doesn’t solve anything.

It depends on how it is done. The UK setup special temp covid hospitals. But the DPM said they have been bringing in lots of medical staff over the last year to support the increase in medical staff required. But it is stupid that as soon as staff are exposed to someone with covid in the hospital, that they then have to step down those staff, when NZs health system is poor, and already has the second worst ICU capacity in the OECD after Mexico. I feel it is the calm before the storm especially based on the mess that is occurring in Victoria and NSW. China is also teaching us a lesson on how to deal with covid and keep cases fief to zero.

Oblivian

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#2787440 30-Sep-2021 23:28

The day is not complete without another reminder of our oecd UCU status.

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