2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2787748 1-Oct-2021 17:03

heavenlywild:They got pushed by the Aussies about opening up a bubble. You just wait. Christmas without family = political suicide. Meanwhile the Aussies can come and go freely,

Please no body bring up the line "oh so you are accepting deaths". Everything we do has an element of risk. Get vaccinated, carry on with life.

Aussies aren't coming here freely at the moment and won't be, Christmas or not, until there is some kind of Covid equilibrium reached between the two countries. It will definately be political suicide to invite the NSW and Victorian Covid response to NZ as things are just now.

Handle9

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#2787751 1-Oct-2021 17:09

Buster:
trig42:

Level 2, of course, will ruin it.

And keeping the border closed will just SLOW the spread to the rest of NZ, it won't stop it. Once we go LVL2 in Auckland, it will spread in restaurants and bars. It will get to a worker crossing the border and go with them to other parts of the North Island. Give it two weeks.

I think the Auckland border will stay in force a while longer and yes Covid will get across, but when it does I would expect an attempt will be made to trap it (some level of lockdown on a local scale), contact trace, and wipe it out. Eventually this probably wont work but it might the first few times. Be silly not to give it a shot.

Yip. Every day of delay gives another day for vaccinations to be completed.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2787753 1-Oct-2021 17:18

Handle9:
cokemaster: It’s going to be interesting to see what prevails as time goes on: Aucklanders desire to get out or Rest of New Zealand’s desire for Auckland to stay put.

It’ll become irrelevant. If it’s rooted in Auckland the rest of NZ will get it sooner or later and restrictions won’t make sense.

Borders exist between states in Oz, where they can keep it at bay. Eg South Australia and Queensland. The only reason NZ followed the elimination approach is because our health system couldn’t have coped with suppression . Vaccination reduces the load a lot, but relies on a very high vaccination rate which I can’t see NZ getting up to without other intervention. Hospitals are going to fill up with unvaccinated people. UK who have high vaccination and some natural immunity is planning for winter lockdowns if their hoptitals risk being overwhelmed.

heavenlywild

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#2787755 1-Oct-2021 17:27

Don't forget our hospitals are already broken for many many years.

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2787757 1-Oct-2021 17:41

heavenlywild: Don't forget our hospitals are already broken for many many years.

Our hospitals might not have much swell capacity but mostly what is sucking up resources is big people (who are making poor health/lifestyle choices) and all the flow on ailments they have.

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2787761 1-Oct-2021 18:00

GV27:Also, whatever NSW does, it's going to be without Gladys.

Funny. When I voiced my scepticism (in this thread) over her future a while back I was told I knew nothing about Australian politics (which is very nearly correct) but I have some level of common sense.

ajobbins

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#2787763 1-Oct-2021 18:05

I have put my graphs up here:

https://covidstats.jdk.nz/

Twitter: ajobbins

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Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

GV27

5897 posts

Uber Geek

#2787764 1-Oct-2021 18:10

Handle9:

Yip. Every day of delay gives another day for vaccinations to be completed.

It also comes at huge social and economic cost; if the settings within a region will make it easier for it to spread in the community, then there's no moral justification to isolate that region from the rest of the country. What's good enough for the response in one part of the country is good enough for another, unless we're saying the lives of Aucklanders matter less.

mattwnz

20164 posts

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#2787765 1-Oct-2021 18:11

ajobbins:

I have put my graphs up here:

https://covidstats.jdk.nz/

It is interesting that new daily cases seem to go up and down somewhat in line with the testing numbers, which am guessing go up and down due to the weekend. I don't think that is a good sign.

I am not the first person to see this link either when the graphs are combined https://twitter.com/dpfdpf/status/1443777455798435846?s=20

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2787767 1-Oct-2021 18:16

GV27:

Handle9:

Yip. Every day of delay gives another day for vaccinations to be completed.

It also comes at huge social and economic cost; if the settings within a region will make it easier for it to spread in the community, then there's no moral justification to isolate that region from the rest of the country. What's good enough for the response in one part of the country is good enough for another, unless we're saying the lives of Aucklanders matter less.

One could argue that borders in Australia between states shouldn't also close. But the fact is that the borders being closed allows covid to be ring fenced in a particular geographic area. The south island haven't had a detected covid case in a year, but is in level 2 because Auckland is in level 3 and there is an increased risk. Yet many businesses in the SI don't think this is fair either. But IMO it makes no sense to just allow covid out, as it will cost the economy more to do this, and the contact tracing would be under even more strain.

Batman

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#2787769 1-Oct-2021 18:20

ajobbins:
I have put my graphs up here:

https://covidstats.jdk.nz/

In the third set the unlocked cumulative doesn't look to be cumulative?

ajobbins

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#2787772 1-Oct-2021 18:36

Batman:
ajobbins:

I have put my graphs up here:

https://covidstats.jdk.nz/

In the third set the unlocked cumulative doesn't look to be cumulative?

It is because as time goes on, some previously unlinked cases become linked as they track down the links. The number is derived by subtracting the total number of unlinked cases in the outbreak from the total number of cases on any given day.

Twitter: ajobbins

GV27

5897 posts

Uber Geek

#2787773 1-Oct-2021 18:36

mattwnz:

One could argue that borders in Australia between states shouldn't also close. But the fact is that the borders being closed allows covid to be ring fenced in a particular geographic area. The south island haven't had a detected covid case in a year, but is in level 2 because Auckland is in level 3 and there is an increased risk. Yet many businesses in the SI don't think this is fair either. But IMO it makes no sense to just allow covid out, as it will cost the economy more to do this, and the contact tracing would be under even more strain.

It makes about as much sense to let Covid out as it does to keep an area behind a hard border but also make it easier for Covid to spread behind it.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2787774 1-Oct-2021 18:40

GV27:

mattwnz:

One could argue that borders in Australia between states shouldn't also close. But the fact is that the borders being closed allows covid to be ring fenced in a particular geographic area. The south island haven't had a detected covid case in a year, but is in level 2 because Auckland is in level 3 and there is an increased risk. Yet many businesses in the SI don't think this is fair either. But IMO it makes no sense to just allow covid out, as it will cost the economy more to do this, and the contact tracing would be under even more strain.

It makes about as much sense to let Covid out as it does to keep an area behind a hard border but also make it easier for Covid to spread behind it.

IMO I think the government need to really explain what is going on with their elimination strategy, or are they just suppressing it and buying time, hoping they will get well over 90% vaccination rates in the next month or two. Guess we will find out next week. Except we do know that they aren't opening the border.

tdgeek

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#2787775 1-Oct-2021 18:43

mattwnz:

Basically it seems to be a holding pattern, and hoping. Maybe eventually they will get back down to zero, but seems unlikely at this stage. They are now priming people up for future days of higher numbers. I wish more people would dob the flouters in. I hear of stories where people say they see people breaking the lockdown rules, but they didn't report them.

We seem to be pinning hope on very high vaccination. But a lot of people though aren't going to get vaccinated, I already know quite a few who aren't, and people who I didn't expect not to be. Some are hoping a better vaccine will come along. So I can't see us getting to very high levels without something else occurring.

Yeah I agree. Its a great pity. Delta doesn't stop Level 4 working, yes you need to be solid, but its the people that cause these issues.

So, there are two choices in Auckland. Go back to level 4 until its contained. Easy to say, but hard for them. Or let it go, open up, accept the deaths, that's obviously hard.

Most equations we learnt in our education had correct answers, this doesnt. The best equation causes issues, no matter what it is.

The next issue is the rest of NZ. While they may accept its hard for Aucklanders, do they want the borders relaxed so it goes everywhere else?

Rock and a hard place is a gross understatement.

Im no expert but I'd allow Level 3 to continue, and be HARSH when flouters are found. Fines are not a great deterrent. if you cannot be trusted you will be locked up somewhere, not a prison, but removed from circulation. Do these intermingling families want that? No. Maybe that threat, I mean in this PC world, "encouragement" may force more to comply.

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