2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2787777 1-Oct-2021 18:48

mattwnz:

We seem to be pinning hope on very high vaccination. But a lot of people though aren't going to get vaccinated, I already know quite a few who aren't, and people who I didn't expect not to be. Some are hoping a better vaccine will come along. So I can't see us getting to very high levels without something else occurring.

I don't see it that way. With the daily and continual flouting, its not pinning hopes, its being backed into a corner. Its one thing being Govt and MoH and having all that power, but they actually have very little power. They cant stop me sneaking over to yours and having a BBQ and beers. We "ask" you to obey the rules, that's a bit like saying locks keep honest people out. Honest people up there are eliminating Covid, they aren't the problem.

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#2787778 1-Oct-2021 18:50

heavenlywild:

Either way the Aussies will be putting pressure on the NZ govt to get moving:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/126556511/australia-to-reopen-international-borders-next-month

LOL, not even going to read that. Both countries are WAY OFF that. Math 101

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#2787779 1-Oct-2021 18:51

ajobbins: It is because as time goes on, some previously unlinked cases become linked as they track down the links. The number is derived by subtracting the total number of unlinked cases in the outbreak from the total number of cases on any given day.

Ah I see.

Based on your graph the net unlinked case over time is zero? As the number doesn't go up after the first few days.

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#2787781 1-Oct-2021 18:53

Buster:

trig42:

Level 2, of course, will ruin it.

And keeping the border closed will just SLOW the spread to the rest of NZ, it won't stop it. Once we go LVL2 in Auckland, it will spread in restaurants and bars. It will get to a worker crossing the border and go with them to other parts of the North Island. Give it two weeks.

I think the Auckland border will stay in force a while longer and yes Covid will get across, but when it does I would expect an attempt will be made to trap it (some level of lockdown on a local scale), contact trace, and wipe it out. Eventually this probably wont work but it might the first few times. Be silly not to give it a shot.

I'd anecdotally expect other regions to comply well. Not because they are better but because Auckland is a reminder.

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#2787784 1-Oct-2021 18:59

mattwnz:

IMO I think the government need to really explain what is going on with their elimination strategy, or are they just suppressing it and buying time, hoping they will get well over 90% vaccination rates in the next month or two. Guess we will find out next week. Except we do know that they aren't opening the border.

Elimination works, ask the rest of NZ. But not in Auckland, and that's a fault with a select few up there. I guess AKL will accept that they cannot beat it, so will go the suppression regime with vaccinations. Right or wrong its not me to speculate. The next issue is if Auckland goes down that track and you want to open the borders, you need the rest of NZ to catch up the vaccination level.

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#2787785 1-Oct-2021 19:01

Batman:
ajobbins: It is because as time goes on, some previously unlinked cases become linked as they track down the links. The number is derived by subtracting the total number of unlinked cases in the outbreak from the total number of cases on any given day.

Ah I see.

Based on your graph the net unlinked case over time is zero? As the number doesn't go up after the first few days.

It fluctuates a bit day to day, but what I guess it's saying is that they are more or less keeping pace now with linking cases.

You'll note the number today is 30 unlinked in the outbreak, but that the number they will talk about in the pressers is 9 - which is the number from the last two weeks only. After 2 weeks, they stop talking about the case as unlinked in the press conference but it stays in the total reporting in the official press release only. I could speculate on the motivations on why they are reporting it in that way - but I am probably overly cynical about things now.

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#2787788 1-Oct-2021 19:18

ajobbins:

but I am probably overly cynical about things now.

I feel they need to talk well, to avoid the "I may as well give up and see my neighbour" mentality.

Its not working, for whatever reason some seem to feel

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#2787886 1-Oct-2021 19:28

ajobbins:

It fluctuates a bit day to day, but what I guess it's saying is that they are more or less keeping pace now with linking cases.

You'll note the number today is 30 unlinked in the outbreak, but that the number they will talk about in the pressers is 9 - which is the number from the last two weeks only. After 2 weeks, they stop talking about the case as unlinked in the press conference but it stays in the total reporting in the official press release only. I could speculate on the motivations on why they are reporting it in that way - but I am probably overly cynical about things now.

thanks. i haven't been following the linked vs unlinked cases as it doesn't mean anything to me other than

"i know there are random cases out there and you have no idea where they got the infection from but i'm getting no information from MOH so i don't even bother trying to find out"

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#2787890 1-Oct-2021 20:00

tdgeek:
heavenlywild:

Either way the Aussies will be putting pressure on the NZ govt to get moving:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/126556511/australia-to-reopen-international-borders-next-month

LOL, not even going to read that. Both countries are WAY OFF that. Math 101

How is Australia a long way off? NSW is over 85% first dose. They will likely be opening up to international travel sometime in late October or early November. That’s hardly a long way off.

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#2787892 1-Oct-2021 20:20

Here's a scenario.

Australia an NZ both vaccinate to 90%.
NZ is overwhelmed with Covid anyway.
Australia is Covid free.

Australia throws open its border with NZ. Yeah Right.

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#2787894 1-Oct-2021 20:25

Buster: Here's a scenario.

Australia an NZ both vaccinate to 90%.
NZ is overwhelmed with Covid anyway.
Australia is Covid free.

Australia throws open its border with NZ. Yeah Right.

So what?

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#2787895 1-Oct-2021 20:27

Buster: Here's a scenario.

Australia an NZ both vaccinate to 90%.

both are possible - though with Australia mandates and restrictions i say is more likely

NZ is overwhelmed with Covid anyway. Australia is Covid free.

not sure why Australia is covid free. covid will happen, just that people don't get very sick.

Australia throws open its border with NZ. Yeah Right.

Australia has said they will open borders, so it will happen

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#2787899 1-Oct-2021 21:06

Vaccinate or increase your chance of dying. End of story.

Open the borders. Everyone's been given enough time to get jabbed. Ok, give everyone until 1 Dec 2021.

Give people a carrot and a stick.

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#2787902 1-Oct-2021 21:32

heavenlywild: Vaccinate or increase your chance of dying. End of story.

Open the borders. Everyone's been given enough time to get jabbed. Ok, give everyone until 1 Dec 2021.

Give people a carrot and a stick.

Approaching things digitally would be dumb and unnecessary. Taking things more slowly and adjusting the approach based on what is happening is much more sensible and likely to be successful.

I’d love to be home for Christmas but throwing the borders open all at once is a recipe for continual yo-yoing of restrictions when the health system is inevitably overwhelmed.

Buster

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#2787903 1-Oct-2021 21:39

heavenlywild: Vaccinate or increase your chance of dying. End of story.

Open the borders. Everyone's been given enough time to get jabbed. Ok, give everyone until 1 Dec 2021.

Give people a carrot and a stick.

And what about the children?

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