2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2789097 4-Oct-2021 14:06

wellygary:

mattwnz: How can they say the outbreak has essentially ended and it is now a second outbreak. It's part of the same outbreak as they are come from the same initial outbreak and they never eliminated it. Sounds like the kiwibuild reset logic.

I guess she is trying to say we have stopped the exponential growth ( and future growth) in cases from the week of cases spreading before the L4 lockdown,

now we have a long rumbling outbreak that will bounce between 10 and 40 while we remain in Level 3.....

But it is ow clear there is not enough suppression under L3 to drive this back to 0 cases.... so we're promised that today will talk about "transition" ... hopefully we get told what we are transitioning to.. because otherwise it sounds awfully like "living with the virus"

Yeah. Living with it was the plan in Dec when the rollout is complete and we start to ease restrictions. You cannot have elimination and opening up. As I see it, its transitioning to vaccines being the tool of choice, before we are ready for that. Maybe L3 where its being applied can incorporate Level 2 or Level 1 gatherings, IF you are fully vaccinated. Good for freedom good for business and a vaccine incentive. Given that apparently 97% of these Auckland cases are not vaccinated, that adds creedence to a vaccinated level and a non vaccinated level. PM even mentioned that you can bring the second jab forward, is that a hint?

Rikkitic

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#2789098 4-Oct-2021 14:10

Ge0rge:
GV27:

This is exactly the kind of attitude that makes it so hard for people to deal with on-going lockdowns. Just because they haven't been hard for you doesn't mean they aren't an enormous struggle for many other people.

All that needed to happen for this outbreak to be controlled was for people to follow the rules, stay at home and don't be a dick. Apparently this was too much to ask.

I have to say I agree with both viewpoints being expressed here. Those who aren't particularly affected by lockdowns (like myself) can easily underestimate the cost to those who are. At the same time, it is an unavoidable fact that if everyone had scrupulously followed the rules at the beginning, the whole country would be Covid-free today. I am sorry to say you are both right and it may already be too late for any of that to matter.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

GV27

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#2789100 4-Oct-2021 14:13

Ge0rge:

So yeah, forgive me if I'm a little flippant towards those who think the rules don't apply to them.

You won't get any disagreement from me about people who have gone out of their way to flout lockdowns or get in the faces of emergency/essential workers on the frontlines of our response.

But I'm also not going to shy away from the fact that complying with lockdown has been an incredibly isolating and mentally challenging period for myself and my family either. I have been fortunate that this time we haven't faced anywhere near as much financial stress as we did in the last one, but we have had a sick infant this time around, with no access to GP appointments or pediatric referrals until L3.

So I'm understandably touchy about people who want to portray lockdowns as being as simple as 'just do X' when just doing X can also take an enormous personal, emotional and financial toll.

I'm sorry for what you've had to put up with, but I won't pretend that what I've had to deal with this lockdown has been easy either.

alasta

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#2789101 4-Oct-2021 14:16

tdgeek:

Yeah. Living with it was the plan in Dec when the rollout is complete and we start to ease restrictions. You cannot have elimination and opening up. As I see it, its transitioning to vaccines being the tool of choice, before we are ready for that. Maybe L3 where its being applied can incorporate Level 2 or Level 1 gatherings, IF you are fully vaccinated. Good for freedom good for business and a vaccine incentive.

I was thinking this would be the ideal way forward, but the problem is how to police it. When you spot a group of people gathering, how do you know whether they're vaccinated? The police aren't realistically going to have time to go around checking everyone's vaccination passport so it might have to be limited to controlled environments such as ticketed events.

Given that apparently 97% of these Auckland cases are not vaccinated, that adds creedence to a vaccinated level and a non vaccinated level. PM even mentioned that you can bring the second jab forward, is that a hint?

It would be interesting to know whether the booking web site is still defaulting to a six week interval. I personally opted for three weeks because I felt like this was going to get out of control sooner or later.

GV27

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#2789103 4-Oct-2021 14:26

alasta:

It would be interesting to know whether the booking web site is still defaulting to a six week interval. I personally opted for three weeks because I felt like this was going to get out of control sooner or later.

I think it is, but you can probably just walk in somewhere if you want to bring your second one forward. That's my plan anyway.

tdgeek

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#2789104 4-Oct-2021 14:26

alasta:

I was thinking this would be the ideal way forward, but the problem is how to police it. When you spot a group of people gathering, how do you know whether they're vaccinated? The police aren't realistically going to have time to go around checking everyone's vaccination passport so it might have to be limited to controlled environments such as ticketed events.

Time is off the essence, but if my Covid app knows who I am, it should be able to verify my jab status and add it to my app, a new non private part of my Covid app that's used for Vaccine ID. Alternatively a laminated Photo ID card. If I go to Bunnings in a L3 area, but its open for me, scan and enter/show card and enter, that does need to door person though. The non vaccinated are in Level 3 so should be home or at the supermarket or Macca's drive through only so Bunnings as normal isn't open for them as is the case now . But they can click and collect

FineWine

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#2789111 4-Oct-2021 14:52

Nth Island, apart from the current Auckland Waikato level 3 zones, stay in level 2 till higher vaccine and testing rate compliance. Plus average 7 day positives - linked and unlinked - below 10.

Only then the above level 3 zones drop to level 2 and current level 2 Nth Island areas drops to level 1

Then even higher vaccine and testing rate and compliance in Auckland Waikato level 2 zones and average 7 day positives - linked and unlinked - below 5.

Sth Island goto level 1 now with the following conditions:

- All flights and Ferry boarding to Sth Island must have proof of double vaccine and negative 48/72 hour test. Starting NOW not February.

Elimination is now a dream so we learn to live with it. Masks become the fashion de rigueur, scanning becomes the new seat belts.

Digital vaccine passports incorporated into the current COVID NZ app in the form of a QR code or similar ability or paper proof of, using current bank note technology.

Bugger the PC privacy mutts and link it all to your NHI.

The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) who issue the international passport standards, to include the ability to incorporate vaccine status within your passport, visually and digitally.

Heavy fines and or stiff community service and or incarceration for non compliance.

No jab No government benefits.

All work contracts changed and resigned - no jab no work.

It is my right to be healthy. It is nobodies right to endanger that.

😷 IMO 😷

Addendum: and/or current credit card digital technology with embedded chip and printed QR code along with photo and name.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Equinox IT

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quickymart

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#2789112 4-Oct-2021 14:55

Thank Christ.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/10/destiny-church-leader-brian-tamaki-set-to-face-charges-over-anti-lockdown-protest.html

Fred99

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#2789114 4-Oct-2021 15:01

GV27:

alasta:

It would be interesting to know whether the booking web site is still defaulting to a six week interval. I personally opted for three weeks because I felt like this was going to get out of control sooner or later.

I think it is, but you can probably just walk in somewhere if you want to bring your second one forward. That's my plan anyway.

That's been my plan too. But I'm in Chch and we (in this household) can isolate ourselves pretty well for many weeks if covid arrives here over the next month or so. That's not so easy for some people. And if it does, then I expect the city to be locked down L3 immediately. I'm about 6 weeks from having dose one now, second dose booked in 2 weeks time, so an 8 week gap.

networkn

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#2789131 4-Oct-2021 15:13

frankv:

AirNZ is making it a condition. I guess the unvaccinated can fly JetStar (for the time being).

I find it wildly ironic that our Government-owned national airline won't let unvaccinated fly (which I 100% agree with) but will accept 25% of its staff may not be vaccinated.

ezbee

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#2789138 4-Oct-2021 15:29

Certain countries are going to get quite upset if their vaccination certificates are not accepted.
Discrimination they will cry, though it could be that their systems are not up to the task.

How not to do vaccine certificates. Give a certificate for queuing up, rather than vaccinating.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/pakistans-fake-vaccine-certificates/

""
Over four hours later, a health care worker entered Amjad’s details into the system and ushered him toward another long queue to receive his shot. Instead, he went straight to work and, showing the vaccine receipt as proof, lied to his employer about getting jabbed.
""

mattwnz

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#2789140 4-Oct-2021 15:31

Buster:

Technofreak:

From the Spinoff

I'm not sure I get the logic. That's not how I recall things were presented during previous lockdowns.

Level 4 worked pretty well for the first two and a half weeks (among the initial clusters and the Church too maybe) but then case numbers stubbornly kept appearing (they are hinting gang community - five active sub-clusters?). Gave it two and a half more weeks but no improvement. Move on. Level 3. The obvious difference between this and previous lockdowns is vaccination.

Now there are apparently 7 active sub clusters, when only 5 days ago there were apparently only 3 active sub clusters, so it has more than doubled.

I think it is clear many people aren't getting tested and it is now spreading faster under level 3. So the actual case numbers are likely a lot higher. Level 4 the R0 was under 1, so it should have eventually died out under level 4, and with some extra interventions on flouters, and Auckland could have got back to level 2. But with the uptick in cases it must now be over 1. I saw a video of police taking in a sick woman on the streets today, and the number of stories of cases popping up randomly are a major concern . I really hope we are not heading in the direction of Melbourne.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300422286/covid19-australia-victoria-has-1377-new-cases-melbourne-now-worlds-most-locked-down-city

alexx

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#2789141 4-Oct-2021 15:32

Victoria - 1377 new cases and four deaths.
NSW - 623 new cases and six deaths.

Hope their mental heath is good, mine wouldn’t be if those were the numbers for New Zealand.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

mattwnz

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#2789142 4-Oct-2021 15:34

ezbee:

Certain countries are going to get quite upset if their vaccination certificates are not accepted.
Discrimination they will cry, though it could be that their systems are not up to the task.

How not to do vaccine certificates. Give a certificate for queuing up, rather than vaccinating.
https://thediplomat.com/2021/09/pakistans-fake-vaccine-certificates/

""
Over four hours later, a health care worker entered Amjad’s details into the system and ushered him toward another long queue to receive his shot. Instead, he went straight to work and, showing the vaccine receipt as proof, lied to his employer about getting jabbed.
""

This is also one of the problems with having multiple types of vaccine in a single country like Australia has, where one may be accepted by another country, and the other may not be due to not being as effective.

MikeB4

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#2789143 4-Oct-2021 15:34

quickymart:

Thank Christ.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/10/destiny-church-leader-brian-tamaki-set-to-face-charges-over-anti-lockdown-protest.html

That is probably what he wants so he can be the martyr. The prosecution should seek permanent suppression of all details.

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