2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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309 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#2791842 8-Oct-2021 15:49

tdgeek:
GV27:

Am I right in thinking the unlinked cases can be interpreted as 'unexpected'?

People seem to be comfortable with these numbers because they 'expected 45 cases linked to household contacts' but they seem to be reporting that separately.

Possibly unexpected is how I see it. They seem to have found no obvious link to a close contact, but they may find it later, friend of a friend to that close contact, which probably surfaces a few more enquiries later

The expected cases are "safe"-ish. That's the family.

They really need to be reporting "daily new infected households" . This will tell us how much covid is spreading through out the community.
If new infected households are:
-zero then any new covid cases are just family members and expected;
-increasing then covid is spreading at least through neighbours, work mates, friends and relations. Under level 3 this should not be occuring;
-accelerating then it is complely out of control.

MaxineN

Max
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#2791843 8-Oct-2021 15:55

I'm starting to get the impression that everyone around the country should be getting tested at this rate.

Few reasons why I stand by this.

We're an extremely mobile country even under restrictions.
We also have a virus that is extremely mobile and can easily catch unvaccinated people off guard and spread forming the clusters we have right now that are growing.
I also think we've lost track and are very behind this virus. I don't think this will be over in 2-3 months time even with high vaccinations.

I'm pretty disappointed that our vaccination plan was so slow because we knew delta was going to land in Aotearoa and we knew it was going to be when not if but I'm thinking that we might have prevented the clusters we had now if we ramped up faster.

I'm not the ministry of health or someone with a crystal ball so I'm not going to stand like I could have predicted both versions but what I am saying is that the government could have done better and there are things that should have been done better but this outbreak has gone beyond Auckland because of idiots and because of the fact that we are an extremely mobile country.

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

spronkey

117 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 48

#2791847 8-Oct-2021 16:10

I think we're definitely at the point where much more widescale surveillance testing will be required if we want to keep the reproduction rate near 1.

All the following metrics were showing strong improvements until about a week after the switch to Level 3:

# of daily new cases that had exposure events was slowly trending down under Level 4 (Mid-teens to ~6-7)
# of daily new unlinked cases was trending toward zero under Level 4 (~10 to ~2)
# of cases still under investigation had dropped from 200+ to mid-60s and was dropping quickly
# of contained and closed subclusters was increasing steadily
# of known contacts from last 14 days was trending down (1300ish to 950ish)
# of locations of interest was dropping quickly (~450 -> ~100)
# in hospital was dropping steadilg (~45 -> ~12)

Every one of those metrics is now back to where it was in the first week of September, and all of them are trending upwards:

# daily new with exposures is now averaging ~15 and rising quickly
# daily new unlinked is averaging ~7 and rising
# cases under investigation is rising by 15-20 per day and growing
# active subclusters has gone from 4-5 to 10-12
# 14-day contacts has gone from 950ish to 1750ish
# LoIs has gone from ~100 to ~200
# in hospital went from ~12 -> ~32, dropped yesterday but is almost certainly going to start rising again

These metrics are very similar in relative terms to the tipping points of both the NSW and Victorian outbreaks.

I am furiously disappointed, we were so close, and we just gave up.

alasta

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#2791850 8-Oct-2021 16:24

I wonder what vaccination rates were in NSW/Victoria when they were at the same stage of their outbreaks that we are at currently. If you were to compare that to our prevailing vaccination rate then it might be an indication of whether our peak will be as bad as theirs.

KrazyKid

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#2791852 8-Oct-2021 16:48

I was just thinking the same thing earlier and looked it up. At the start of the NSW outbreak in July they had given about 2.2 million doses. They are now at 10.8 million doses. If NSW is at 90% first doses they would have been around 20% first doses vaccinated at the start of their outbreak.

Someone has probably got a more accurate number or there.

Of course they are bending their curve with vaccinations AND level 3 lockdown.

ezbee

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#2791857 8-Oct-2021 16:57

So far its not been as bad as it could be, not a good as it could be.
At this stage with large Families or groups acting as one large Family, numbers may fluctuate greatly.
A couple of days lower numbers and it starts looking like a flat line again ?

There are many factors we don't have inside knowledge of.
However at this point contact tracing effectiveness is probably very critical.

How far behind their tracing work are contact tracers ?
Are we training and recruiting more to deal with a case explosion, if work doubles or triples ?
Wider geography must increase workload greatly.

How ready are we to stand up large volumes of tests across whole of New Zealand, vs contained geography so far.

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Fred99

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#2791859 8-Oct-2021 17:05

KrazyKid: I was just thinking the same thing earlier and looked it up. At the start of the NSW outbreak in July they had given about 2.2 million doses. They are now at 10.8 million doses. If NSW is at 90% first doses they would have been around 20% first doses vaccinated at the start of their outbreak.

Someone has probably got a more accurate number or there.

Of course they are bending their curve with vaccinations AND level 3 lockdown.

Close enough I reckon. Maybe a bit higher by the time they were finding 20-50 cases/day, but much lower than Auckland now.

Anyway, both Sydney and Melbourne are >3x the population of Auckland with far more high-density housing - Melbourne in particular with lower cost housing close to the CBD. Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth have things under control for now.

Fred99

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#2791862 8-Oct-2021 17:15

I was talking to the CE of a hospital this morning - just a general chat. The expectation is that it's going to be utter chaos and despair. A sense of impending doom. FWIW, with no Covid locally there's been an uptick of about 50% in ED arrivals, unsure if it's "worried well" turning up at the wrong place, or people not going to GP clinics.

One way or another the thumbscrews are going to have to be tightened for "hesitants". High hopes for the mega vaccination clinics tomorrow, but we'll see. If that doesn't solve the problem, then it's time for "shock and awe".

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 164

#2791864 8-Oct-2021 17:20

I thought it was Saturday 16th Oct.

vexxxboy

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#2791866 8-Oct-2021 17:23

MaxineN: I'm starting to get the impression that everyone around the country should be getting tested at this rate.

Few reasons why I stand by this.

We're an extremely mobile country even under restrictions.
We also have a virus that is extremely mobile and can easily catch unvaccinated people off guard and spread forming the clusters we have right now that are growing.
I also think we've lost track and are very behind this virus. I don't think this will be over in 2-3 months time even with high vaccinations.

I'm pretty disappointed that our vaccination plan was so slow because we knew delta was going to land in Aotearoa and we knew it was going to be when not if but I'm thinking that we might have prevented the clusters we had now if we ramped up faster.

I'm not the ministry of health or someone with a crystal ball so I'm not going to stand like I could have predicted both versions but what I am saying is that the government could have done better and there are things that should have been done better but this outbreak has gone beyond Auckland because of idiots and because of the fact that we are an extremely mobile country.

dont think ramping up vaccination rates sooner would have made much difference, the areas in Auckland being hit are still only at 30-40% vaccinated months after vaccinations were ramped up. Keeping Auckland at level 4 would have done nothing to the cases , from anecdotal evidence the areas that had the cases were not at level 4 anyway and they weren't going to eliminate Delta so they did what was best for the majority of Auckland and moved to level 3. What is coming is going to be along race and poverty lines.The worse off you are , the worse Covid will effect you.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Fred99

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#2791867 8-Oct-2021 17:27

Buster:

I thought it was Saturday 16th Oct.

Yeah - it is too. I hadn't taken much notice TBH, apart from one anti-vaxxer, everyone I know has had at least one shot.

Dyson

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ezbee

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#2791868 8-Oct-2021 17:31

So we have tax free evangelical groups who also claim substantial worker subsidies.
Thanks the rest of New Zealand for their support by supporting another superspreading event.
To lower our vaccination rate.
In a pandemic.

Meanwhile over at Sikh Temple in Takanini
https://www.stuff.co.nz/tarana/300392643/sikh-society-distributing-free-food-packs-for-families

Brian Tamaki's crowd urged to learn from south Auckland churches, Sikh and Muslim communities and do 'something positive'
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/10/covid-19-brian-tamaki-s-crowd-urged-to-learn-from-south-auckland-churches-sikh-and-muslim-communities-and-do-something-positive.html

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 164

#2791870 8-Oct-2021 17:34

I see there are a million doses available for distribution. Anyone wanting a first dose could just go and get it.

If the vaccination program has been too slow, a lack of vaccine has not been the issue for the last three months.

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 164

#2791871 8-Oct-2021 17:37

Fred99:

Buster:

I thought it was Saturday 16th Oct.

Yeah - it is too. I hadn't taken much notice TBH, apart from one anti-vaxxer, everyone I know has had at least one shot.

They are looking for a big push from now till then anyway.

MaxineN

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#2791875 8-Oct-2021 17:50

vexxxboy:

dont think ramping up vaccination rates sooner would have made much difference, the areas in Auckland being hit are still only at 30-40% vaccinated months after vaccinations were ramped up. Keeping Auckland at level 4 would have done nothing to the cases , from anecdotal evidence the areas that had the cases were not at level 4 anyway and they weren't going to eliminate Delta so they did what was best for the majority of Auckland and moved to level 3. What is coming is going to be along race and poverty lines.The worse off you are , the worse Covid will effect you.

Maybe. Maybe not. We can't really speculate on what's already happening and I do agree with you. But I absolutely am going to keep criticizing the governments current effort for the rest of the reasons in my previous post because we need to really catch up and we need to do better.

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

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