2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2791924 8-Oct-2021 18:58

vexxxboy:

do you think the uptake would have been any better when the need wasnt there to get vaccinated , because even now the majority in the areas it is needed are still not getting vaccinated. South Auckland was in group 4 from the outset and the uptake has always been low.

There were numerous pleas begging to prioritise South Auckland in the rollout for literally this exact reason.

But if you want to pretend we'd be in the same boat if Group 4 became eligible months before it actually did, then sure.

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#2791925 8-Oct-2021 18:58

MaxineN: I'm starting to get the impression that everyone around the country should be getting tested at this rate.

Few reasons why I stand by this.

We're an extremely mobile country even under restrictions.
We also have a virus that is extremely mobile and can easily catch unvaccinated people off guard and spread forming the clusters we have right now that are growing.
I also think we've lost track and are very behind this virus. I don't think this will be over in 2-3 months time even with high vaccinations.

I'm pretty disappointed that our vaccination plan was so slow because we knew delta was going to land in Aotearoa and we knew it was going to be when not if but I'm thinking that we might have prevented the clusters we had now if we ramped up faster.

I'm not the ministry of health or someone with a crystal ball so I'm not going to stand like I could have predicted both versions but what I am saying is that the government could have done better and there are things that should have been done better but this outbreak has gone beyond Auckland because of idiots and because of the fact that we are an extremely mobile country.

Yep.

Rules are good. It stops an honest person like me, breaking into your house. But it doesn't stop a burglar. Covid wise many people are not doing the right thing.

I just watched the presser. How can you continue this when you get an infection and no cooperation? You cannot. Get vaccinated and be part of the 3%

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#2791926 8-Oct-2021 18:59

HelloThere:

Hipkins has already said he doesn't know if they hand gang connections so unless you have insider information I don't see why you think it.

No, he said he hasn't been told. It's very easy to tell someone you don't want to be told something so you can avoid questions about it on the spot.

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#2791928 8-Oct-2021 19:01

spronkey:

I think we're definitely at the point where much more widescale surveillance testing will be required if we want to keep the reproduction rate near 1.

All the following metrics were showing strong improvements until about a week after the switch to Level 3:

# of daily new cases that had exposure events was slowly trending down under Level 4 (Mid-teens to ~6-7)
# of daily new unlinked cases was trending toward zero under Level 4 (~10 to ~2)
# of cases still under investigation had dropped from 200+ to mid-60s and was dropping quickly
# of contained and closed subclusters was increasing steadily
# of known contacts from last 14 days was trending down (1300ish to 950ish)
# of locations of interest was dropping quickly (~450 -> ~100)
# in hospital was dropping steadilg (~45 -> ~12)
Every one of those metrics is now back to where it was in the first week of September, and all of them are trending upwards:

# daily new with exposures is now averaging ~15 and rising quickly
# daily new unlinked is averaging ~7 and rising
# cases under investigation is rising by 15-20 per day and growing
# active subclusters has gone from 4-5 to 10-12
# 14-day contacts has gone from 950ish to 1750ish
# LoIs has gone from ~100 to ~200
# in hospital went from ~12 -> ~32, dropped yesterday but is almost certainly going to start rising again
These metrics are very similar in relative terms to the tipping points of both the NSW and Victorian outbreaks.

I am furiously disappointed, we were so close, and we just gave up.

No we didn't. Thats disparaging Aucklanders. SOME have been slack. They spread it. Not enough to double cases every 7 days but enough to forget about elimination. So now, get vaccinated. 97% of ALL cases are unvaccinated, that's what needs to happen.

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#2791931 8-Oct-2021 19:11

alasta:

I wonder what vaccination rates were in NSW/Victoria when they were at the same stage of their outbreaks that we are at currently. If you were to compare that to our prevailing vaccination rate then it might be an indication of whether our peak will be as bad as theirs.

No idea, but you would need to compare their response with ours, how harsh the lockdowns were, how early or late and the level of non compliance

But as a Kiwi who has a lot of ties to AKL and AUS, its not the same.

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#2791933 8-Oct-2021 19:13

Did you also catch this muppet falsified the border paperwork. And falsified details for test. So needed to be chased by police some time after the fact.

They've done everything they possibly could to evade.

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#2791934 8-Oct-2021 19:13

ezbee:

So far its not been as bad as it could be, not a good as it could be.
At this stage with large Families or groups acting as one large Family, numbers may fluctuate greatly.
A couple of days lower numbers and it starts looking like a flat line again ?

There are many factors we don't have inside knowledge of.
However at this point contact tracing effectiveness is probably very critical.

How far behind their tracing work are contact tracers ?
Are we training and recruiting more to deal with a case explosion, if work doubles or triples ?
Wider geography must increase workload greatly.

How ready are we to stand up large volumes of tests across whole of New Zealand, vs contained geography so far.

When you get more cases and more flouting, tracing, which will always be important is historical. Enforcing Level 3, and vaccinations is where we are at now. There has been too much low compliance to chase it, IMHO

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#2791935 8-Oct-2021 19:15

GV27:

HelloThere:

Hipkins has already said he doesn't know if they hand gang connections so unless you have insider information I don't see why you think it.

No, he said he hasn't been told. It's very easy to tell someone you don't want to be told something so you can avoid questions about it on the spot.

The person concerned is being dealt with by police, it would be very unwise for a minister to get too involved - parliament's job is to make laws - not enforce them or interfere with the judicial process.

Of course it was probably a gangster on a meth delivery run. Doesn't need to be said. You *know that, I know that, everybody knows that. Minister says or implies that - then there's a problem.

*know = suspect, whatever.

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#2791936 8-Oct-2021 19:16

Why is it not level 4? What happened to 'go hard'?

tdgeek

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#2791937 8-Oct-2021 19:17

Batman: That's not what the govt says as far as I know and everyone here's been telling me

Maybe I got insider information? Or I keep up to date.

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#2791938 8-Oct-2021 19:20

SJB:

Why is it not level 4? What happened to 'go hard'?

There's no evidence of community transmission. I don't expect they would anyway, but at this point in time I reckon that there might be a surprisingly strong community response in Northland against L3 flouters.

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#2791939 8-Oct-2021 19:20

mattwnz:

It has now been confirmed it Northland in level 3 for 4 days. The case has apparently not been cooperative and may have had another traveller. FFS how are they able to leave Auckland?

Fraud. If Facebook, Instagram etc can get taken down, if passports can be copied, if spam happens, it can happen. I get your point but you need to berealitic, honesty is not 100% given. If it was, there would be no crime and no mysteries to solve, its life.

[Mod edit (MF) FUG breach - no funny names]

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#2791940 8-Oct-2021 19:23

HelloThere:

vexxxboy:

sounds like a gang member on a drug run , he isnt telling the police anything from who he was with and were he has been.

Why do you assume it's a male? It could be a female.

I "think" that it was actually two females. From what CH said on the presser. The sex doesnt actually matter anyway.

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#2791941 8-Oct-2021 19:23

Oblivian: Did you also catch this muppet falsified the border paperwork. And falsified details for test. So needed to be chased by police some time after the fact.

They've done everything they possibly could to evade.

And I hope they get the book thrown at them hard.

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

tdgeek

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#2791943 8-Oct-2021 19:25

Batman:
HelloThere:

Northland in L3 due to the low vaccination rates which is below the national average. Not confirmed yet but Hipkins believes they were able to get a permit to travel by providing false information.

Sometimes an outbreak can improve vaccination rates. Sometimes not.

It does. We dont scan, we dont test, we dont follow the rules, but once all that has caused issues, we do. Too late then.

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