2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2411606 2-Feb-2020 17:07

China has a considerable backlog of tests and whilst it has the reagents needed it's struggling with the workload. Rumor has it they can't do more than ~2k/day

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Fred99

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#2411613 2-Feb-2020 17:26

Beccara:

China has a considerable backlog of tests and whilst it has the reagents needed it's struggling with the workload. Rumor has it they can't do more than ~2k/day

They have 137,594 "quarantined". Not sure how feasible it would be to do >100,000 CTs in a hurry, as if they haven't already met clinical criteria, then it looks like that's what they'll need to be put on the "suspected" list (waiting for rRT-PCR). News reports refer to "x-ray", but AFAIK it's not a quick simple chest x-ray to see the characteristic signature of the disease. Then, presumably a radiologist has to look at each scan.

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#2411618 2-Feb-2020 17:33

Yeah it's a CT to dig into the lower lungs for the signs, TBH I doubt they are even doing that for any but a small minority

GV27

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#2411623 2-Feb-2020 17:42

Beccara:

China has a considerable backlog of tests and whilst it has the reagents needed it's struggling with the workload. Rumor has it they can't do more than ~2k/day

The other distinct possibility is that other regions haven't bedded in their number-gathering and testing as well as the others who have been dealing with this for some time. There are plenty of innocent yet terrifying explanations for a momentary dip in the counts.

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#2411625 2-Feb-2020 17:45

Beccara: And our first confirmed death outside China aswell, Dude in Manila died yesterday as I understand it

I read this as dude in Marina; actually dude was in Manila the capital of the Philippines.

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#2411634 2-Feb-2020 18:15

Fred99:

Just being announced as "breaking news" on Stuff that NZ is to introduce travel restrictions very similar to Aus/US - which although on the surface seem draconian and unfortunately will reinforce the escalation of racism/bigotry already rearing its ugly head, it seems necessary under the circumstances:

The outbreak in China is not under control.
The disease can definitely be passed on by asymptomatic carriers.
The rRT-PCR test being used is not reliable enough. (false negatives)
Much about the virulence of the disease is unknown - final mortality rate, % of infected needing ICU, long term health impacts on "recovered" patients etc.

The travel advisory "Do Not Travel" has been extended to cover all of mainland China.

Details of travel restrictions now live in various media.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/new-zealand-restrict-travellers-china-coronavirus-spreads-worldwide

In short, broadly similar to those in the USA & Australia. Less restrictive than Philippines which has included Hong Kong & Macau in its ban.

Sad that we (as with many other countries) have gone against WHO advice regarding travel restrictions.

That said, I think this is the correct call (if a little slow) for NZ, given the long asymptotic time, and unreliable testing methods of those showing symptoms.

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#2411637 2-Feb-2020 18:18

mattwnz:

gzt:
mattwnz:
gzt: It would be a good outcome if airlines were required to install superduper aircon biofilters in all planes. The amount of productivity lost and issues due to flight flu...

Yes, this is actually my fear of flying, is getting sick from it. Too many people fly when they knowing have an illness which IMO is so selfish. But who cancel's a flight when their child has a cold or the flue, and could transmit it to other passengers.

It's no fun travelling with sick kids. Many people cancel if they can I think.

The key will be travel insurance. It usually covers illness iIrc. Does it cover horrible colds or flu? Don't know.

10 hours in the air to most nearest major centers so flight flu is worse for NZ imo.

I was meaning when people are still well enough to travel, but still infectious. Often people will still go to work if they have a cold, because it doesn't affect productivity and other people will also likely have colds in the office. But it is different when travelling when people are in close proximity to another and the airflow is being circulated around the cabin. .

Do you propose we have screening and bans for colds?

tdgeek

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#2411638 2-Feb-2020 18:19

Batman:

Beccara:

There's strong evidence that the Virus was seen as early as Dec 12th. The China stats are troublesome to say the least

this guy details the real timeline. also doctors were arrested for reporting the outbreak in december. also anyone who posts news about the outbreak have also been arrested.

Can you confirm its the real timelime?

tdgeek

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#2411640 2-Feb-2020 18:23

Fred99:

Just being announced as "breaking news" on Stuff that NZ is to introduce travel restrictions very similar to Aus/US - which although on the surface seem draconian and unfortunately will reinforce the escalation of racism/bigotry already rearing its ugly head, it seems necessary under the circumstances:

The outbreak in China is not under control.
The disease can definitely be passed on by asymptomatic carriers.
The rRT-PCR test being used is not reliable enough. (false negatives)
Much about the virulence of the disease is unknown - final mortality rate, % of infected needing ICU, long term health impacts on "recovered" patients etc.

The travel advisory "Do Not Travel" has been extended to cover all of mainland China.

Its late but at least its here. Our low population does I guess give us leeway. But I abhor the racism that surfaced. Clearly NZ is a racist state is it not? Shame. Saw that with the March 15 terriorist attack. See it now. What was it like when the Middle East had an outbreak? And Australia? Nothing I recall. Shame. Pkus 1 to the may of us that arent racist.

tdgeek

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#2411642 2-Feb-2020 18:27

GV27:

Fred99:

Confirmed cases, suspected cases (meeting strict clinical features - but not yet confirmed by rRT-PCR)) and the number under medical observation show still don't show a decline in epidemic growth rate.

My back of envelope workings suggest they dipped momentarily - should have hit 10K within China on Friday but have now continued at 1.3x after crossing the 10K threshold. In all likelihood I don't think the number of infections dropped off as the virus spread to new places within China - whether that Friday number was low by error or by design, it's feels slightly out of place.

10,000 cases and the fatality rate probably is within probability variance. Good day, bad day, and the variance in medical care across nations. Although SARS was more deadly, this one is spreading more.

tdgeek

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#2411644 2-Feb-2020 18:29

Beccara:

Yeah it's a CT to dig into the lower lungs for the signs, TBH I doubt they are even doing that for any but a small minority

Can you blame them? They have medical staff to cater for the usual issues. Then this happens and magnifies the demand without magnifying the medical staff. Same would apply to any country.

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tdgeek

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#2411645 2-Feb-2020 18:31

Scott3:

Fred99:

Just being announced as "breaking news" on Stuff that NZ is to introduce travel restrictions very similar to Aus/US - which although on the surface seem draconian and unfortunately will reinforce the escalation of racism/bigotry already rearing its ugly head, it seems necessary under the circumstances:

The outbreak in China is not under control.
The disease can definitely be passed on by asymptomatic carriers.
The rRT-PCR test being used is not reliable enough. (false negatives)
Much about the virulence of the disease is unknown - final mortality rate, % of infected needing ICU, long term health impacts on "recovered" patients etc.

The travel advisory "Do Not Travel" has been extended to cover all of mainland China.

Details of travel restrictions now live in various media.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/new-zealand-restrict-travellers-china-coronavirus-spreads-worldwide

In short, broadly similar to those in the USA & Australia. Less restrictive than Philippines which has included Hong Kong & Macau in its ban.

Sad that we (as with many other countries) have gone against WHO advice regarding travel restrictions.

That said, I think this is the correct call (if a little slow) for NZ, given the long asymptotic time, and unreliable testing methods of those showing symptoms.

Agree, we either work globally to contain it, or we treat it as just the flu. AKA do we want to be reading this in the news in 2 years time or 2 months?

DimasikTurbo

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#2411660 2-Feb-2020 18:57

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-china-gilead-sciences/gilead-working-with-china-to-test-ebola-drug-as-new-coronavirus-treatment-idUSKBN1ZU2RX

mattwnz

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#2411670 2-Feb-2020 19:17

tdgeek:

Do you propose we have screening and bans for colds?

I was just pointing out the realities of air travel and the high risk of flight flu. People should probably use their own judgement if they should be flying and whether they are likely to infect anyone else. But there are sometimes people who do fly that know they probably shouldn't be.

Batman

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#2411672 2-Feb-2020 19:20

tdgeek:

Batman:

Beccara:

There's strong evidence that the Virus was seen as early as Dec 12th. The China stats are troublesome to say the least

this guy details the real timeline. also doctors were arrested for reporting the outbreak in december. also anyone who posts news about the outbreak have also been arrested.

Can you confirm its the real timelime?

Can anyone?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak#1%E2%80%9318_December_2019

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