2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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423 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2795370 14-Oct-2021 16:41

Hey party time right now everyone! Apparently! Around 20 zoomers on the Shore around 3 houses away from me ffs. Reported for what good it will do with current volume. "Two households" ... yeah right.

tdgeek

29746 posts

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#2795382 14-Oct-2021 16:44

wellygary:

Auckland is going to have a really crappy November, but the hope is that vax rates will be high enough in December to "bend the curve"- but where the curve is by then is anyone's guess..

The vaccine ID is due November, so hopefully that will be on time or ahead of time, so that some people can have some more freedom, and some others are forced to vaccinate.

wellygary

8315 posts

Uber Geek

#2795384 14-Oct-2021 16:46

PolicyGuy:

The second group is the real problem. They are mostly poor, mostly brown, mostly young. A quarter of them don't have a large-screen device in their home, and those that do use it to watch Netflix etc. They don't watch the News on TV, they don't read any newspaper or visit sites like Stuff or the Herald. Any "news" content they consume is on Facebook or Instagram, possibly Twitter. If you prod them, they'll remember their Aunty had a thing called a "radio", their own entertainment is streamed. Every few weeks, they may remember to empty the letter box at the gate into the rubbish or recycling bin: they won't read anything in it, they know from bitter experience that only Bad News comes in the mail. They aren't on the electoral roll. A third of them aren't even registered with any primary health care provider, they only time they have contact with the health system is at admission to an ED. They have crappy casualised jobs for minimum pay and believe that if they take a day off work for Sick Leave their casual shifts will evaporate. There are eight or more of them living in a three-bedroom house, or in other inadequate housing.
They are the end result of the thirty-year experiment we have been running in post-Keynsian economics.
They are, ummm, "challenging" to engage with

:(

Yip, although they are not totally unknown to the System,

They will pay tax, and many will likely have had interactions with MSD for things like the accommodation Supplement,

They are also not unreachable, but the Government is going to have do what people like John Tamihere are advocating and start knocking on doors...

In many areas it will be fairly easy, you simply remove all the addresses were you have people who have been vaxxed and then start targetting the houses where there are no vaxxed people in the system....

But for gawds sake don't let the Ministry of Health do it, we have developed a good system of ethnic health providers and this is their bread and butter...

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2795397 14-Oct-2021 16:54

cokemaster:

We know:

Vaccines work.
Effective lockdowns can suppress the virus.
Contact tracing can significantly aid in locating potentially exposed individuals.
Masks can also reduce the probability of being infected.
However the billion dollar question is how we can use these tools effectively? How do we engage the public? I don't have an answer but a circuitbreaker is required, otherwise we are going to be in lockdown a lot longer.

Add to that we know the demographics and we did in lvl4. Although itts one thing knowing who, where, why, when etc, its another thing wishing somebody would have or still will, do something about it. Which unfortunately is a Govt role, its not political, more its a flaw in action. People are CRYING for what is actually being done. Daily numbers and updates are all well and good, but actual road maps of action are what people desire.

Given we already know where in Auckland the biggest hotspot is and whom, we need at minimum a leaflet drop advising the above, especially the effectiveness of both Vaccines but highlighting Masks as equally effective and together dramatically reduce the chance of high viral load infection. We know (and have known) a huge percentage (evades my brain fog, is it 70%?) would/will not get covid tested with flu like symptoms.

Conversely I think too much may info may weigh down other personality types, as an example, trying to explain how the Span flu weakened and became what we call Seasonal Flu etc (just using it as an example) might be too much, where some people may need such information to dispel the disinfo they have already eaten (as Dr Ghandi says, you never tell people what they must do). It is a fine line on how much virology type information some people want and what some people desire (but real info, not disinfo). I am sure the Govt has a Psych they can refer the content too.

A lot of the anti vax stuff I read are simply people who do not understand the simple science, ie according to Mayo Clinic Moderna is 76% and Pfizer 42% effective at immunisation from Delta, one persons comment was, what is the point of a vax that is only 42% effective and why didnt we obtain Moderna. Which of course is completely ignoring the fact both dramatically reduce the chances of exreme infection/death, as do masks. Nor does reading a headline like that, explain the Pfizer vax was developed for Alpha.

Given most of us know Moderna contains 3.333x the dose, pfizer MAY copy and or release a booster based on the current dominant strain, Delta (which Moderna has suggested will be released for poor nations first as it is the dominant strain ripping them apart). and on it will go until Covid becomes much the same as the Span Flu with weak reminents, that is if we cannot develop a single dose efficacy like with small pox (which didnt happen over night).

But for now, state simple things (not exclusive too) like the following and why (and refer to the hotline for further information). Clearly needs to be in dominant languages as does availability on the hotline (I presume this already exists....)

1. Wear a mask in public and get vaxxd

2. Social distance (this is hugely important in the current demographic hot spot)

3. Get tested if you have any symptoms (even if they seem not "flu" like, refer to xyz list)

4. Ring the following hotline should you need further information

5. The future against covid looks bright and in time vaccines and masks will reduce the impact of covid ie hope

Hope, whilst I wouldnt call this pandemic over sensationalised, I would say a lot of people have real covid fatigue and mental health is on the decline, hope that one day we will be back closer to our old norms following the above, is enough to keep some people going. Id think putting things like Modernas expectation of mid next year as a tad premature lol (although quite possible, given the main thing is to squash current dominant strain, which in poorer large populations will have a much greater chance to mutate further. Im not sure if a laymans guide to virology would be helpful, especially for the Dr "self researchers" who have chomped on the disinfo apple.

Meanwhile, we (govt/moh) should be rolling out our extra hospitals, ICU and staff that we planned for (recently, cough) and advise the community that this is what is happening and why (vs modelled expectations etc), again, some knowledge of what is going on provides both hope and some trust in the Govts competency.

A lot of this has already been covered, but there is definitely people not hearing it, for a myriad of reasons. For now we need to target where it is mostly effecting.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2795399 14-Oct-2021 16:59

arcon:

A serious discussion on improving the situation can't happen if we're not open to improving how the government handles things - which invariably involves some level of criticism or blame for want of a better word. This doesn't have to imply that another government could to it better (which would be political and not helpful).

The messaging has not been tough enough on consequences for rule breakers where it needs to be, and is still not adapting. Sure it might not stop the hardcore bad apples but the "tarnished apples" who might be thinking about rule breaking could absolutely be dissuaded. Second time I've felt the need to talk apples today. I hate apples. Even Sav Blanc, it reminds me of apples lol.

1000000% agree, which is what i said above. Inaction and putting out said lack of action is not political, its a flaw in practical action. People need to hear what is being done for the future, but many people, especially the fricken captain obvious parts of Auck, simply need physical messaging and in multiple languages. Had all that been done in lvl4, Im so very confident we would have been out of lockdown by now.

Technofreak:

Something along the lines of, no jab no bed

watch this space :-). Said my nostrildamous on it a couple weeks back.

if Middlemore alone (south auck) which is already a hospital beyond capacity, is expecting 1400 cases a week and 45 ICUs at 80%, without being accused of being political, Im hoping the Govt has done the captain obvious and planned for this months ago.

MileHighKiwi

782 posts

Ultimate Geek

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#2795402 14-Oct-2021 17:04

cokemaster:

a circuitbreaker is required, otherwise we are going to be in lockdown a lot longer.

A circuit breaker won't be applied to Auckland because of the political fall out. Anyone who disagrees with that is naive. That doesn't mean places like Wellington can't go to 3, which I expect soon, but I don't see Auckland going back now, the Govt has started down a path and IMO won't turn back - there simply won't be enough buy in this time.

mattwnz

20147 posts

Uber Geek

#2795403 14-Oct-2021 17:05

arcon:

Hey party time right now everyone! Apparently! Around 20 zoomers on the Shore around 3 houses away from me ffs. Reported for what good it will do with current volume. "Two households" ... yeah right.

Auckland is set to become another Victoria, even though they have only been in lockdown for a far shorter period of time, so shouldn't have the same lockdown fatigue. I feel if they had stayed in level 4 for longer and really stamped down on the flouting, and gave more support to the poor, they could have contained it, and Auckland may have stamped it out and could be in level 2. Or if still in level 3, close to elimination. . I noticed the finance minister say today that NZs lockdowns were the most strict currently being used in the OECD, but he failed to say NZs ICU capacity is the second lowest to cope with the oncoming spike in cases. It all basically comes down to the health capacity. Its like a slow train crash, and experts haven't been listened to as much this time. I can't see the Auckland border being opened for a long time now, because it makes no sense to let it spread freely out into the rest of the country, as that would cost even more money.

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TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2795404 14-Oct-2021 17:07

MileHighKiwi:

but I don't see Auckland going back now, the Govt has started down a path and IMO won't turn back - there simply won't be enough buy in this time.

I concur. Given we knew where, who, why and when the numbers were growing in Auckland and we had cases dropping to single digits, yet we did nothing about fixing the W's back then, it would be outrageous if they backtracked on their mistake now. Even if it was the right thing to do (with funding, consequences etc that i talked about couple pages back)

mattwnz

20147 posts

Uber Geek

#2795405 14-Oct-2021 17:09

MileHighKiwi:

cokemaster:

a circuitbreaker is required, otherwise we are going to be in lockdown a lot longer.

A circuit breaker won't be applied to Auckland because of the political fall out. Anyone who disagrees with that is naive. That doesn't mean places like Wellington can't go to 3, which I expect soon, but I don't see Auckland going back now, the Govt has started down a path and IMO won't turn back - there simply won't be enough buy in this time.

That is why the government shouldn't be now handling this, as it now shouldn't' be political IMO. Many experts seem to be wanting Auckland to do a circuit breaker.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2795406 14-Oct-2021 17:10

mattwnz:

Auckland is set to become another Victoria, even though they have only been in lockdown for a far shorter period of time, so shouldn't have the same lockdown fatigue. I feel if they had stayed in level 4 for longer and really stamped down on the flouting, and gave more support to the poor, they could have contained it, and Auckland may have stamped it out and could be in level 2.

Seems so blimmin obvious it makes my blood boil. All they had to do is address the remaining demographic (and give some real consequences to actual flouters, of which are less of an impact). Why did they not do the above actions of outlined when they had us at 8 cases in a day. Why? You answered why and its the truth. Inaction is not political unless it is for political reasons.

mattwnz:That is why the government shouldn't be now handling this, as it now shouldn't' be political IMO. Many experts seem to be wanting Auckland to do a circuit breaker.

Some of whom work for the Govt on covid and were evidently blindsided by the lvl3 announcement.

wellygary

8315 posts

Uber Geek

#2795408 14-Oct-2021 17:13

MileHighKiwi:

That doesn't mean places like Wellington can't go to 3, which I expect soon, but I don't see Auckland going back now, the Govt has started down a path and IMO won't turn back - there simply won't be enough buy in this time.

If it is gonna happen it will be in the next week, the Vax rates in Wellington are getting really good,

We went from 6 areas 95%+ first to 20 areas in the past week, and in those areas 2nd doses went from 58% to 72%... I would expect many to hit 90% double dosed inside 2 weeks....

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/capital_and_coast_sa2_uptake_map_20211013_0.pdf

National rawdata by areas is here

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/pages/uptake_sa2_dhb_website_20211013_0.xlsx

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2795410 14-Oct-2021 17:13

Dear oh dear. Just drove past a group of anti-vaxxers waving banners for the NZDoctorsSOS group.

They all looked obese and 10 years older than me. Prime virus fodder. Covid will utterly destroy them - this might be the last conspiracy theory these morons will be able to waste their time on - annoying others. They were getting loudly razooed by passing motorists, trying to waddle themselves bit further from the road, but then copping flack from cyclists behind them.

mattwnz

20147 posts

Uber Geek

#2795411 14-Oct-2021 17:14

TeaLeaf:

MileHighKiwi:

but I don't see Auckland going back now, the Govt has started down a path and IMO won't turn back - there simply won't be enough buy in this time.

I concur. Given we knew where, who, why and when the numbers were growing in Auckland and we had cases dropping to single digits, yet we did nothing about fixing the W's back then, it would be outrageous if they backtracked on their mistake now. Even if it was the right thing to do (with funding, consequences etc that i talked about couple pages back)

Remember a few weeks ago the messaging was the Covid Delta has a long tail, to explain why cases were bouncing around in the low 10s, and that there were only a few active clusters remaining. Now that messaging has disappeared, and now when we have the highest number of cases in weeks, they say this is not unexpected as cases grow. When did this shift occur, because apparently level 3 is still elimination and stamping it out. They know it is mainly spreading from flouting and people going to other peoples houses, but they don't seem to be enforcing it. The people that were caught outside Auckland, they seem to have mainly been reported by the public. So why aren't other people in Auckland reporting these people and if they are, why aren't he police doing anything to enforce the rules, and why did the government bring in new large fines but delay bringing them in yet? It is going to be a waste of time having these larger fines by the time the fines is endemic in Auckland.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2795416 14-Oct-2021 17:20

mattwnz:

Remember a few weeks ago the messaging was the Covid Delta has a long tail, to explain why cases were bouncing around in the low 10s, and that there were only a few active clusters remaining. Now that messaging has disappeared,

Yep i do remember, and I am with you, as are most people on here. Im hoarse in my finger tips from typing consequences.

But there is the other group, which is the main group, who are not flouters, they are poor and the struggling.

PolicyGuy:

The second group is the real problem. They are mostly poor, mostly brown, mostly young.

Nailed it. Which is why imo it is a lack of understanding by those that lead from afar who have zero cultural understanding of why the numbers largely exist in one area. These people deserve better. To put the boot in, they have the most over run hospital in NZ. Many speak little english. Heck 8, try 16 in a 3 bed. And thats not their fault. Nor did we support people enough financially (and never have) for those who cant work or covid has lost their employment. Yet nobody is putting up their hand to help them. They are normal every day kiwis, who deserve better imo.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2795420 14-Oct-2021 17:25

Fred99:

Dear oh dear. Just drove past a group of anti-vaxxers

They all looked obese and 10 years older than me. Prime virus fodder. Covid will utterly destroy them - this might be the last conspiracy theory these morons will be able to waste their time on - annoying others. They were getting loudly razooed by passing motorists, trying to waddle themselves bit further from the road, but then copping flack from cyclists behind them.

I forget her name, she was one of the largest antivax/covid leaders in the US, 60k followers (who of course would have followers etc), she developed covid and all too late wanted to turn her message around.

Its going to tear these folk who simply dont believe it exists a new one. Evidently according to Rogan, you just need ivermectin and high dose vit C drip lol. Fool thinks he knows everything, but every scientist he gets on, he interrupts so they feed his narrative.

has everyone seen his "by definition, its unamerican" video? nearly everything he cites is the complete opposite of reality.

At least we do not have that level of stupidity in NZ, well not at a celebrity level.

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