2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2799352 22-Oct-2021 12:40

JPNZ:

SJB:

Bloomfield is saying there will be around 180 cases per day in 2 weeks. As the numbers are doubling every 2 weeks that makes about 1,000 cases per day by Christmas.

What's the hospitalization rate at the moment? Will the Health Service be able to cope?

Here is an excerpt from Dr Rawiri Taonui on stuff today

"With a record 102 new cases announced on Thursday, the City of Sails has passed the threshold of a runaway Delta event. Key risk indicators are off the scale. This is the second record in three days.

The average number of daily cases is six times higher than the average during week one of Delta alert level 3, cases with exposure in the community are four times higher. Daily unlinked cases are 12 times higher, fortnightly unlinked cases 20 times higher and hospitalisations four times higher. The Ministry of Health is no longer tracking unlinked clusters because it no longer knows where or how many there are. The 891 positive cases in isolation exceeds quarantine capacity, many are in less secure isolation units.

The upward curve of Delta cases has steepened. Delta will go exponential. We will see more record days. Cases will exceed 150 then 200 per day over the next week. To the week ending October 12, the weekly total of Delta cases increased 44.9 per cent. To the week ending October 19, they jumped 53.4 per cent. The current week increase is 37 per cent and rising.

If the Delta increase continues at 37 per cent over the next two weeks (more likely it will be higher), there will be 4000 cases by November 2. And if the Government does not take decisive action, Delta could reach 10,000 to 15,000 cases by the end of November."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/300436182/covid19-how-mori-will-pay-the-price-of-abandoning-level-4

He's pretty vociferous in that article. Lets hope his figures are wrong.

But I do agree with his comments regarding the effect having a L4 lockdown would have had.

We've snatched a massive defeat from the jaws of victory because the 'go hard' approach proved too hard for our politicians to swallow.

Hugely disappointing.

sen8or

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#2799353 22-Oct-2021 12:41

networkn:

Gurezaemon:

Looking at Whangarei, the broad trends are depressingly clear. Better-off suburbs are yellow or light green, poorer suburbs are dark green.

I really don't really know what to do about this honestly. The vaccine is free, we have been messaging hard out for months, we have had vaxathons, offered taxi chits, offered grocery vouchers, GP's are calling 1:1 to get people who are on lists as unvaccinated (which seem depressingly outdated).

I don't believe there would be many who genuinely are unaware of the messaging talking about the importance of it. There are some. A friend of mine was working at the Vaxathon site, someone walks past and asked 'what's happening here', gets told, queued up, and got a vaccination on the spot, but you can't turn on the tv, radio, open Facebook or any other social media without hearing about covid and vaccinations!

You will always get some who do the right thing because its the right thing to do for the general good of the population, then there are those that will only do the right thing if there is something in it for them. The "protection against the virus" is a bit of an intangible, they might not catch it anyway and if they do, they might not get that sick so there is still nothing in it for them (this assumes they don't think of anyonelses welfare except their own).

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#2799354 22-Oct-2021 12:42

JPNZ:

Here is an excerpt from Dr Rawiri Taonui on stuff today

"With a record 102 new cases announced on Thursday, the City of Sails has passed the threshold of a runaway Delta event. Key risk indicators are off the scale. This is the second record in three days.

The average number of daily cases is six times higher than the average during week one of Delta alert level 3, cases with exposure in the community are four times higher. Daily unlinked cases are 12 times higher, fortnightly unlinked cases 20 times higher and hospitalisations four times higher. The Ministry of Health is no longer tracking unlinked clusters because it no longer knows where or how many there are. The 891 positive cases in isolation exceeds quarantine capacity, many are in less secure isolation units.

The upward curve of Delta cases has steepened. Delta will go exponential. We will see more record days. Cases will exceed 150 then 200 per day over the next week. To the week ending October 12, the weekly total of Delta cases increased 44.9 per cent. To the week ending October 19, they jumped 53.4 per cent. The current week increase is 37 per cent and rising.

If the Delta increase continues at 37 per cent over the next two weeks (more likely it will be higher), there will be 4000 cases by November 2. And if the Government does not take decisive action, Delta could reach 10,000 to 15,000 cases by the end of November."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/300436182/covid19-how-mori-will-pay-the-price-of-abandoning-level-4

What action? The only way to get it back to levels they want is level 4 lockdown for 6 - 8 weeks or level 5 lockdown for 4 weeks

Level 5 would mean taking a part of Auckland surrounding it with electrified fences and barb wire and moving all the unvaccinated into there until covid is eliminated.

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#2799355 22-Oct-2021 12:43

SJB:

We've snatched a massive defeat from the jaws of victory because the 'go hard' approach proved too hard for our politicians to swallow.

Hugely disappointing.

It was too hard for many people to swallow, hence the ongoing and continual flouting and intermingling

Hugely disappointing

invisibleman18

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#2799357 22-Oct-2021 12:47

networkn:

I really don't really know what to do about this honestly. The vaccine is free, we have been messaging hard out for months, we have had vaxathons, offered taxi chits, offered grocery vouchers, GP's are calling 1:1 to get people who are on lists as unvaccinated (which seem depressingly outdated).

There are not many options left to persuade someone who hasn't had one by now with all the bribes and freebies. It would never happen but IMO the most effective option left would be to hit them in the pocket. No vax? No Winz (not only Winz customers still refusing I know).

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#2799360 22-Oct-2021 12:53

invisibleman18: would never happen but IMO the most effective option left would be to hit them in the pocket. No vax? No Winz (not only Winz customers still refusing I know).

That is not the first time I've seen that suggested after today's announcement.

You may liken it to those that don't have a valid reason not to be, abusing tge system, and also abusing these requirements are essentially abusing their own employer or hand that feeds them

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#2799361 22-Oct-2021 12:57

@Eva888:

I think that many people are scared of the vaccine rather than just being anti Vaxx. I had success with two couples by explaining what I did and this made them feel less fearful.

After reading a blog post by a doctor describing the mechanism of the vaccines which MAY cause clotting in very few. The doctor mentioned that he took low dose aspirin for a month after his vaxx. That’s what inspired me to do the same and it gave me a level of comfort. Husband was on blood thinners so not an issue. In our case we were nervous because one offspring has had DVts three times. She was told she has a gene that makes her susceptible and naturally, she got this gene from parents.

I think giving someone a simple tool that reduces a perceived danger makes them feel more in charge and could push many to take it. Worth a suggestion.

What did these people think about MMR (measles, mumps, rubeola) vaccines? Tetanus vaccine? Polio vaccine?

It seems the risk of clot from the vaccine (AstraZeneca) is no different than the risk in the general population "Over 20 million doses of the AZ vaccine have been given in the UK so far. According to the MHRA, the risk of a serious blood clot as a result of the jab is approximately one in 250,000 people vaccinated, or four in a million. It’s also worth noting that Covid-19 itself carries a significant risk of blood clots; according to a study in the journal Thorax, the prevalence of pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis in people with the virus was 7.8% and 11.2%, respectively. What’s more, around 10,000 people usually develop blood clots in the EU in any given month, while an estimated 3,000 blood clot cases occur monthly in the UK. The general population’s risk of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) – one of the blood clot types observed in Vaxzevria recipients – is around five in a million; slightly higher than the risk associated with the vaccine."

Also for aspirin, the latest recommendation is not for everyone to take it for heart conditions or anything like that anymore. Aspirin brings a serious risk of internal bleeding.

"People aged 60 or older who are at risk of heart disease should not start a daily low-dose aspirin regimen to prevent a first heart attack because the risk of internal bleeding outweighs its benefits, a U.S. expert panel recommended on Tuesday. The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) said it plans to update its 2016 recommendation as there is new evidence that the risk of potentially life-threatening internal bleeding from regular aspirin use increases with age."

From the report: "Even at low- or very low-doses, aspirin increases the risk of bleeding and other harms. Major GI bleeding risk increases by about 58% and hemorrhagic stroke by about 27% among participants in very low-dose aspirin trials, but absolute bleeding events will vary depending on individual bleeding risks."

There is a handy calculator for Aspirin risk of bleeding here.

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#2799409 22-Oct-2021 13:09

GV27:

So... when all the Auckland DHBs get to 90% double-jabbed (so a week then +3 weeks assuming we can hit 95% in the next seven days), we get to move into the Red Alert?

...or 29th November review at cabinet level.

This just on the Herald..

"Ministry of Health data released today shows that to hit 90 per cent of first doses across the three DHBS another 18,032 people need to be vaccinated while another 225,836 second doses were needed to get to 90 per cent.

Director general of health Ashley Bloomfield has previously said about 5 per cent of those who got their first dose did not go back for a second."

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#2799410 22-Oct-2021 13:10

Well, no matter what happens, it seems likely that everyone in NZ is getting COVID vaccinated. Those who chose not to get it, will get natural immunity when they contract it, the rest of us have immunity, or have (hopefully) enough protection.

The issue is how many people die. Elderly who are double vaxxed are still at reasonable risk, and those who aren't vaccinated.

I am really sad that we are likely to see some pretty scary numbers of people dying.

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#2799412 22-Oct-2021 13:16

129 new cases today

120 in Auckland and 9 in the Waikato

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Oblivian

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#2799413 22-Oct-2021 13:17

freitasm:

What did these people think about MMR (measles, mumps, rubeola) vaccines? Tetanus vaccine? Polio vaccine?

There's a certain amount of facepalm that goes on when I see some of the 20+ stay at home, pro my body my choice types etc going off on their tangents

When in actual fact, if they dug up their very own vaccine records from plunket or DHB, will likely find they didn't have a choice as a child. And have had the very 'poison' they are suddenly against. For all if not most of those.

Back before 'the internets' people listened to the doctor. Even if there was 1/8th the science behind some of the tech and changes made to those vaccines since to make them more efficient (Or in cases less long term harm). You get more ick in eating unknown sourced dirt, lead, plastics and sand particles in the local sandpit as a kid.

But no, don't you go putting anything that's been tested or refined that I've already had near us!

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GV27

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#2799415 22-Oct-2021 13:17

JPNZ:

This just on the Herald..

"Ministry of Health data released today shows that to hit 90 per cent of first doses across the three DHBS another 18,032 people need to be vaccinated while another 225,836 second doses were needed to get to 90 per cent.

Director general of health Ashley Bloomfield has previously said about 5 per cent of those who got their first dose did not go back for a second."

We only had 2,700 first does yesterday in Auckland. Unsure about today.

Suggests we have at least another week before we hit 90% 1st doses and then three weeks before they be double jabbed and then a bit longer to account for slippage.

KrazyKid

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#2799419 22-Oct-2021 13:23

I'll post this again - it was previously posted a few pages ago in this thread.
It wasn't me who initially posted it, but it's great.

Here is a link to mathematically daily calculations of the Reff for NZ.

It also has some mathematical modelling the impact of the vaccinations.
It predicts a peak of daily cases mid November assuming restrictions remain the same (eg 5 weeks of schools open/exams in Auckland may change things)

Dingbatt

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#2799420 22-Oct-2021 13:25

tdgeek:

SJB:

We've snatched a massive defeat from the jaws of victory because the 'go hard' approach proved too hard for our politicians to swallow.

Hugely disappointing.

It was too hard for many people to swallow, hence the ongoing and continual flouting and intermingling

Hugely disappointing

Team of 3 million by any chance?

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

tdgeek

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#2799423 22-Oct-2021 13:30

Dingbatt:

Team of 3 million by any chance?

Are you disputing the flouting and family/neighbour intermingling that has kept the vast majority of compliant AKL locked down so long?

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