2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2799558 22-Oct-2021 16:14

wellygary:

And Hence the building Anger,

We had an announcement On Monday to say there was going to be an announcement today that then told us the announcement was on November 29....

That's 6 weeks more of lockdowns for Auckland, (which is 74% fully vaxxed) - while Melbourne just ended theirs at 70%....

The pot in Auckland must be more than close to boiling over...

Indeed, 80% fully vaccinated would have been a far better target IMHO. 90% fully vaccinated NZ wide is nothing short of a myth

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kyhwana2

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#2799561 22-Oct-2021 16:18

JPNZ:

wellygary:

And Hence the building Anger,

We had an announcement On Monday to say there was going to be an announcement today that then told us the announcement was on November 29....

That's 6 weeks more of lockdowns for Auckland, (which is 74% fully vaxxed) - while Melbourne just ended theirs at 70%....

The pot in Auckland must be more than close to boiling over...

Indeed, 80% fully vaccinated would have been a far better target IMHO. 90% fully vaccinated NZ wide is nothing short of a myth

Not sure that 80% of eligible population would've been enough though.. (86% of eligible pop is only 72% of total pop). So 90% is still like, 1/4 of NZ's pop unvaccinated.

Scott3

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#2799563 22-Oct-2021 16:35

I think the guts of today's announcement was pritty good, but issues with how long it is going to take to get the vaccine passport working. that the messaging was a bit confusing / complex.

When Auckland meets the vaccination targed Auckland will go from "level 3, step 1" to "Red light". When the rest of NZ Meets its target, they will go from step 2 (or step 3 for some of the waikato) to "orange light".... We now have 3 different covid-19 restrictions systems, of which multiple could be used concurrently.

I think the government (rightly in light of recent data) has been backpedaling / delaying it's opening up plan. Scools were meant to open on the 18th, but not now only vaccine age kids are going back on the 26th. The 90% vaccinated goal has become 90% fully vaccinated, which has 90% for worst of DHB in Auckland (for Auckland) and for the worst dhb outside of Auckland.

This makes the target much harder to reach... Auckland as a whole has had 89% first doses, but counties manuaku DHB only 87%. Each percentage point is taking weeks at the moment...

For the rest of NZ, It is going to be deep into Next year before the worst DHB (currently Tairāwhiti: 75% first doses) hits 90% fully vaccianted. - not sure if this is motivating to get people vaccinated.

Seriously think we should have just set a date when the vaccine pass stuff kicks in. - Some people only respond to stuff when it impacts them now.

Real pity the certificate system isn't ready now. Would be great to roll it out to now, where a first dose less than 9 weeks old (to accommodate those in low risk area's that want to run 8 week spacings), or a both doses are considered vaccinated. Means it will make compliance not seem to dawning. - Get declined entry to the gym and told to run down to the vaccination center, and you can be working out in an hours time....

We have had a solid exponential trend (linear on the log scale graph below) for a few weeks now. Quite scary to watch. And a scary peak predicted. Note that graph projects the vaccination roll out to continue faster than it's current rate.

https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_NZ.html

So for Auckland at least, no way we can relax any restrictions in the Next 6 weeks or so...

alexx

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#2799572 22-Oct-2021 16:44

SJB:

Dingbatt:

Team of 3 million by any chance?

I'm not a team player. That's any team BTW.

When I hear any moaning about lockdowns I wonder what our older parents and grandparents must think. They, having experienced the hardship of 2 world wars among other things, would wonder what all the fuss was about.

8 or 10 weeks without a lattte or seeing your friends/family? Try years of deprivation and apart from loved ones, wondering if they would ever come back. In a lot of cases they didn't.

Try watching the documentary The World at War to see what 'doing the hard yards' actually means.

While I agree with the war analogy to a certain extent, there are some major differences. In the two world wars, the media 100% supported the war effort. They didn't give regular columns to people that wanted to open our borders and call a truce with the enemy and didn't demand a date to celebrate VE/VJ Days when we were less than two years into the fight.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

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#2799575 22-Oct-2021 16:52

JPNZ:

wellygary:

And Hence the building Anger,

We had an announcement On Monday to say there was going to be an announcement today that then told us the announcement was on November 29....

That's 6 weeks more of lockdowns for Auckland, (which is 74% fully vaxxed) - while Melbourne just ended theirs at 70%....

The pot in Auckland must be more than close to boiling over...

Indeed, 80% fully vaccinated would have been a far better target IMHO. 90% fully vaccinated NZ wide is nothing short of a myth

aim high, shoot low

I predict when children vaccination are a thing we can lower the % due to high overall population vax (assuming we are correct and all these antivaxxers stand their ground).

Scott3

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#2799590 22-Oct-2021 17:33

JPNZ:

wellygary:

And Hence the building Anger,

We had an announcement On Monday to say there was going to be an announcement today that then told us the announcement was on November 29....

That's 6 weeks more of lockdowns for Auckland, (which is 74% fully vaxxed) - while Melbourne just ended theirs at 70%....

The pot in Auckland must be more than close to boiling over...

Indeed, 80% fully vaccinated would have been a far better target IMHO. 90% fully vaccinated NZ wide is nothing short of a myth

Should note that Victoria is quoting 16+ vaccination numbers, which makes their % numbers higher than if they used 12+ numbers like NZ.

And also, while Vic's lockdown has "Ended" they still have heavy restrictions in place. I.e. max indoor occupancy of a pub is 20 fully vaccinated people. Maximum number of visitors (incl dependents) to your home per day is 10. etc.

https://www.smh.com.au/interactive/hub/media/tearout-excerpt/3874/211017---Roadmap.pdf

Still, I feel it was pretty reckless of the VIC authorities to plow on with their opening at 70% of 16+ fully vaccinated in light of their case numbers. Daily numbers announced today for Victoria (pop 6.68m) are 2,189 new local cases and 16 deaths. Not sure NZ would be happy to follow their path...

I think we could get 90% fully vaccinated NZ this year with careful policy around vaccination certs etc. 90% fully vaccinated from our worst DHB isn't happening this year in my opinion (especially without the stick of vaccine passports kicking in until that is achieved).

The vaccine pass app not being ready untill the end of November is a huge issue in my mind. I think the super high vaccination goals are intended to delay at the status quo to avoid attention to that.

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#2799591 22-Oct-2021 17:38

Let's hope the $120,000,000 gets a good result.

vexxxboy

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#2799592 22-Oct-2021 17:49

as i said before Lakes DHB is sitting around 59% 2nd vaccine of the population and has one of the highest maori populations in the country , it is going to take months to get any where near 90%, if at all which i think is more likely . So what happens when it cant. Do we just stay at the red level for good but with Rotorua one of the main tourist places in NZ , i cant see many business happy with that.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

mattwnz

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#2799594 22-Oct-2021 17:54

Buster: Let's hope the $120,000,000 gets a good result.

How much per person could that pay? Carrots have been shown to have an effect. Some businesses are paying $300 per staff member. A pity the carrots didn't come sooner.

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#2799595 22-Oct-2021 17:54

wellygary:

Case in point, there is a media article that the West Coast DHB are saying it will be really hard to make 90% as over 2% of their pop live at Gloriavale, putting them behind the 8 ball before they start...

Without the west coast the south island can't make 90, without the south island making 90, everywhere outside Auckland is also stuck... - the "all DHBs" requirement will have to be changed

Common sense would need to prevail.

tdgeek

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#2799596 22-Oct-2021 17:56

Reanalyse:

I think that the major difference is that in the first lockdown the whole of the country was locked down. When you start dividing the country, even when the reason for this is well justified, the part that is more locked down will be more resentful and possibly this could lead to less compliance- hasten to add our family has completely obayed all that was asked of us.

When the Prime Minister said "team of five million" this Friday, my initial thought was "yeah right"

Thats just getting divisive.

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tdgeek

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#2799597 22-Oct-2021 18:00

Scott3:

And also, while Vic's lockdown has "Ended" they still have heavy restrictions in place. I.e. max indoor occupancy of a pub is 20 fully vaccinated people. Maximum number of visitors (incl dependents) to your home per day is 10. etc.

And IIRC about 2100 cases the day before. Like the UK they open up, and let the rest fend for themselves, so the hospitals will overrun

tdgeek

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#2799598 22-Oct-2021 18:02

Scott3:

The vaccine pass app not being ready untill the end of November is a huge issue in my mind. I think the super high vaccination goals are intended to delay at the status quo to avoid attention to that.

I agree. But the issue now is the 90%. To get them onboard its no vax no nightclub, etc. If they get jabbed, a few days for that, plus 3 week gap, plus 14 days to get max effect. If the Govt allows for that, and it's 89.9 or 87.9 or 85.9, they will have to roll with that. You were warned.

tdgeek

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#2799611 22-Oct-2021 18:04

mattwnz:

Buster: Let's hope the $120,000,000 gets a good result.

How much per person could that pay? Carrots have been shown to have an effect. Some businesses are paying $300 per staff member. A pity the carrots didn't come sooner.

Nightclubs, bars, sports matches, events, etc, etc, etc, plenty of carrots.

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#2799616 22-Oct-2021 18:18

I have a suggestion. Level 4 for everybody until 90% in your region then level 2, no vax no benefit, no vax no govt payments, no vax higher tax rate... Etc

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