2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2815748 19-Nov-2021 14:46

networkn:

They haven't locked down other regions with low numbers of cases, and I don't expect them to start now.

I hope your appointment goes ahead and that it goes well :)

Thanks. Didn't seriously think the level would go up straight away for one case, but can't help that little fear when it happens days before something that wouldn't go ahead at a raised level.

mattwnz

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#2815790 19-Nov-2021 16:38

invisibleman18:

networkn:

They haven't locked down other regions with low numbers of cases, and I don't expect them to start now.

I hope your appointment goes ahead and that it goes well :)

Thanks. Didn't seriously think the level would go up straight away for one case, but can't help that little fear when it happens days before something that wouldn't go ahead at a raised level.

I would be a bit ironic if it was able to be eliminated again outside Auckland before mid December. But I understand there is likely undetected spread in some places including Waikato and they dropped that down to level 2. It seems to be all about timing as the transition to the traffic light system occurs. Guessing they may increase levels if there starts to be a big number of cases occurring.

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#2815808 19-Nov-2021 17:16

Case number trend is still clearly concave down when viewed with a log scale. Good news.

Haven't actually done it, but it seems very likely that plotting for Auckland would yield a R0 less than one.

In terms of test numbers, other than the massive spike at the start of the outbreak (heaps of places of interest then), out testing numbers are trending up. I'm sure there will be cases being missed, but it is not like out testing has dropped to the floor or anything.

Number of tests for COVID-19

tdgeek

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#2815876 19-Nov-2021 18:49

mattwnz:

I would be a bit ironic if it was able to be eliminated again outside Auckland before mid December. But I understand there is likely undetected spread in some places including Waikato and they dropped that down to level 2. It seems to be all about timing as the transition to the traffic light system occurs. Guessing they may increase levels if there starts to be a big number of cases occurring.

Yep. The elimination ship sailed when "some" of AKL let it rip. It will go everywhere, so get vaccinated as the case numbers will be irrelevant. I recall Singapore gave up on disclosing case numbers (may have been somewhere else) as its nit relevant. Alert levels will be decided on hospital beds and ICU

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#2815877 19-Nov-2021 18:54

Scott3:

Case number trend is still clearly concave down when viewed with a log scale. Good news.

Haven't actually done it, but it seems very likely that plotting for Auckland would yield a R0 less than one.

Thanks, but is that true? Its reported case numbers. Who will get mild sick and get a test in case they get deported to MIQ as "I'm 23, fit so I'll stay under the radar" But the people I infected last few days....

Not disparaging your post, but I feel that reported cases and actual cases is steadily widening.

Its over, get vaccinated.

Geektastic

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#2815881 19-Nov-2021 19:09

I came across this paragraph in the Spectator which I found intriguing:

"In every age group over 30 in the UK, the rates of Covid infection per 100,000 are now higher among the vaxxed than the unvaxxed. Indeed, in the cohorts aged between 40 and 79, infection rates among the vaccinated are more than twice as high as among the unvaccinated. PHE’s fruitlessly rechristened body, the UK Health Security Agency, frantically clarifies that the data ‘should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness’, a caveat which I include for the sake of accuracy. But the differences in the infection rates are drastic enough for you to draw your own conclusions."

I'm not sure what to make of that.

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#2815884 19-Nov-2021 19:21

Is that similar to the concept that if we all drove Austin LandCrabs, then the landcrab would be the only car that was ever crashed?

The higher the population who are vaccinated, then the higher the number of infections in vaccinated will be?

The health outcomes for each group may be significantly different however.

Handle9

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#2815885 19-Nov-2021 19:27

Geektastic: I came across this paragraph in the Spectator which I found intriguing:

"In every age group over 30 in the UK, the rates of Covid infection per 100,000 are now higher among the vaxxed than the unvaxxed. Indeed, in the cohorts aged between 40 and 79, infection rates among the vaccinated are more than twice as high as among the unvaccinated. PHE’s fruitlessly rechristened body, the UK Health Security Agency, frantically clarifies that the data ‘should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness’, a caveat which I include for the sake of accuracy. But the differences in the infection rates are drastic enough for you to draw your own conclusions."

I'm not sure what to make of that.

Given it’s an anti vaccine passport opinion piece written by an American free dumb columnist I’d take it with a large grain of salt. There are zero references or attributions. He of course ignored the group with the highest infection rate by far, which is children who are entirely unvaxxed. It reads as a hit piece.

It would be far more useful for you to provide links as well as quotes.

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#2815889 19-Nov-2021 19:43

Geektastic: I came across this paragraph in the Spectator which I found intriguing:

"In every age group over 30 in the UK, the rates of Covid infection per 100,000 are now higher among the vaxxed than the unvaxxed. Indeed, in the cohorts aged between 40 and 79, infection rates among the vaccinated are more than twice as high as among the unvaccinated. PHE’s fruitlessly rechristened body, the UK Health Security Agency, frantically clarifies that the data ‘should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness’, a caveat which I include for the sake of accuracy. But the differences in the infection rates are drastic enough for you to draw your own conclusions."

I'm not sure what to make of that.

we know that once the vaccine is past 6 months protection from getting covid drops.

what is important is whether you get very sick or die. that is all that matters. that or boosters.

if you have to change the oil and filter in your car every 6 months would you do it?

in this universe nothing is forever. not even life.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2021/11/coronavirus-new-uk-stats-show-vaccinated-more-than-30-times-less-likely-to-die-than-unvaccinated.html

Eva888

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#2815891 19-Nov-2021 19:58

Geektastic: I came across this paragraph in the Spectator which I found intriguing:

"In every age group over 30 in the UK, the rates of Covid infection per 100,000 are now higher among the vaxxed than the unvaxxed. Indeed, in the cohorts aged between 40 and 79, infection rates among the vaccinated are more than twice as high as among the unvaccinated. PHE’s fruitlessly rechristened body, the UK Health Security Agency, frantically clarifies that the data ‘should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness’, a caveat which I include for the sake of accuracy. But the differences in the infection rates are drastic enough for you to draw your own conclusions."

I'm not sure what to make of that.

I read from news aggregators and therefore get a mixed package of stories worldwide. This story was troubling as older referred to over 50, not those in their 80s

*Experts in Israel have warned that the COVID-19 vaccine may be losing its efficacy in older people as the highly contagious Delta variant drives a new wave of infections in the Middle Eastern country.
The monitoring team at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem reported that about 90 percent of new confirmed cases in the over-50s group were people who had been fully vaccinated. Israel has been using the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine in its fight against the pandemic.*

https://english.alarabiya.net/coronavirus/2021/07/19/COVID-19-vaccine-may-be-less-effective-on-older-people-Israeli-experts

Similar story here but behind a pay wall https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccine-may-be-less-effective-on-older-people-say-israeli-experts-g2td6qc60

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#2815950 19-Nov-2021 20:52

Ge0rge: Is that similar to the concept that if we all drove Austin LandCrabs, then the landcrab would be the only car that was ever crashed?

And labradors being the dogs responsible for more dog bites than any other breed.

It's not because labradors are dangerous, it's because there are more labradors in homes than other breeds.

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#2815953 19-Nov-2021 21:11

Ge0rge: Is that similar to the concept that if we all drove Austin LandCrabs, then the landcrab would be the only car that was ever crashed?

The higher the population who are vaccinated, then the higher the number of infections in vaccinated will be?

The health outcomes for each group may be significantly different however.

This is the prediction for us as well, that infection in the vaccinated will at some future point supersede the unvaccinated. It is expected in other words, a phenomena of epidemiology for the reasons you use illustrate with the land crab...(I owned an orange one once, loved driving that brick).

The UK have been careful about the decision to use boosters, they have not rushed into it, so again this is expected.

One of the advantages we have, is our boosters shots will be on time hey.

Just keep swimming...

Geektastic

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#2815970 19-Nov-2021 23:51

Handle9:
Geektastic: I came across this paragraph in the Spectator which I found intriguing:

"In every age group over 30 in the UK, the rates of Covid infection per 100,000 are now higher among the vaxxed than the unvaxxed. Indeed, in the cohorts aged between 40 and 79, infection rates among the vaccinated are more than twice as high as among the unvaccinated. PHE’s fruitlessly rechristened body, the UK Health Security Agency, frantically clarifies that the data ‘should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness’, a caveat which I include for the sake of accuracy. But the differences in the infection rates are drastic enough for you to draw your own conclusions."

I'm not sure what to make of that.

Given it’s an anti vaccine passport opinion piece written by an American free dumb columnist I’d take it with a large grain of salt. There are zero references or attributions. He of course ignored the group with the highest infection rate by far, which is children who are entirely unvaxxed. It reads as a hit piece.

It would be far more useful for you to provide links as well as quotes.

It's subscription so I assume links won't help. Oddly, despite being called Lionel the author is actually female!

She's a reasonably respected author and journalist, so don't fall into the GZ prejudice of dismissing her because she was born in the USA.

I take anything in the press with a big grain of salt. It's too easy to buy their cooperation and support...!

Nevertheless it's an interesting thing if correct.

Handle9

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#2815972 20-Nov-2021 00:09

Geektastic:
Handle9:

Given it’s an anti vaccine passport opinion piece written by an American free dumb columnist I’d take it with a large grain of salt. There are zero references or attributions. He of course ignored the group with the highest infection rate by far, which is children who are entirely unvaxxed. It reads as a hit piece.

It would be far more useful for you to provide links as well as quotes.

It's subscription so I assume links won't help. Oddly, despite being called Lionel the author is actually female!

She's a reasonably respected author and journalist, so don't fall into the GZ prejudice of dismissing her because she was born in the USA.

I take anything in the press with a big grain of salt. It's too easy to buy their cooperation and support...!

Nevertheless it's an interesting thing if correct.

I’m dismissing her because of her columns. When they start with th3 sort of nonsense below then it’s pretty clear what her agenda is, let alone the headline of the article you quoted: The Absurd Headline of Vaccine Passports. Then there’s this:

Despite having mocked app-happy Albion in my last column, I finally downloaded the NHS app. (Lest I seem a raging hypocrite, the institutional app is quite distinct from the Track-and-Trace Covid one, possession of which marks you as insane.)

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#2815973 20-Nov-2021 01:19

Eva888:
Geektastic: I came across this paragraph in the Spectator which I found intriguing:

"In every age group over 30 in the UK, the rates of Covid infection per 100,000 are now higher among the vaxxed than the unvaxxed. Indeed, in the cohorts aged between 40 and 79, infection rates among the vaccinated are more than twice as high as among the unvaccinated. PHE’s fruitlessly rechristened body, the UK Health Security Agency, frantically clarifies that the data ‘should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness’, a caveat which I include for the sake of accuracy. But the differences in the infection rates are drastic enough for you to draw your own conclusions."

I'm not sure what to make of that.

I read from news aggregators and therefore get a mixed package of stories worldwide. This story was troubling as older referred to over 50, not those in their 80s

*Experts in Israel have warned that the COVID-19 vaccine may be losing its efficacy in older people as the highly contagious Delta variant drives a new wave of infections in the Middle Eastern country.
The monitoring team at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem reported that about 90 percent of new confirmed cases in the over-50s group were people who had been fully vaccinated. Israel has been using the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine in its fight against the pandemic.*

https://english.alarabiya.net/coronavirus/2021/07/19/COVID-19-vaccine-may-be-less-effective-on-older-people-Israeli-experts

Similar story here but behind a pay wall https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covid-vaccine-may-be-less-effective-on-older-people-say-israeli-experts-g2td6qc60

If Israel followed the age cohorts, jabbing the oldies first for their immunization program, then it makes sense that the over 50s would wane first, Add to that the less robust immune response in that age range.

As we know Israel were one of the earliest, so they were caught on the wane first, so we should avoid that problem here. The timing of our approval process is more workable, since the data was there ahead of time for the likes of medsafe,

I am not sure where Israel are or were at with vaccinating younger people, which will have an impact on reinfection rates.

I cannot wait till we vaccinate kids. Then at least 90% will be closer to what 90% means....as opposed to this false economy we are all sold on by Governments and media due to eligibility meaning we are ignoring a large chunk of the population.

If I recall correctly Israel went with the manufacturers guidelines regarding a three week gap, there is some question marks over that, especially now given the reported big increase in antibodies after a six month interval post the initial two priming shots of the main course. In a perfect world this would have been worked out in years of trials when a global pandemic is not trying to do everyone in.

Interesting times we are living in, live science, a zillion independent variables, all playing out in front of the watching world.

Just keep swimming...

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