2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2816004 20-Nov-2021 07:36

Batman:

we know that once the vaccine is past 6 months protection from getting covid drops.

Does it? Im not aware that inhaling Covid aerosol is reduced from being vaccinated. Thats what masks do, not the vaccine.

we know that once the vaccine is past 6 months, protection from getting sick or dying drops.

tdgeek

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#2816013 20-Nov-2021 08:19

Expanding on this

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/covid-vaccinated-likely-unjabbed-infect-cohabiters-study-suggests

Writing in the Lancet, researchers from a number of institutions including Imperial College London and the UK Health Security Agency (HSA) report how they analysed data from 204 household contacts of 138 people infected with the Delta variant.

Of these contacts, who were recruited within five days of their household member showing symptoms and were tested daily for 14 days, 53 went on to become infected, 31 of whom were fully vaccinated and 15 were unvaccinated.

The results suggest even those who are fully vaccinated have a sizeable risk of becoming infected, with analysis revealing a fully vaccinated contact has a 25% chance of catching the virus from an infected household member while an unvaccinated contact has a 38% chance of becoming infected.

The analysis further suggests that whether an infected individual is themselves fully vaccinated or unvaccinated makes little or no difference to how infectious they are to their household contacts.

The team add that the peak level of virus in infected individuals was the same regardless of whether they were jabbed or not, although these levels dropped off more quickly in the vaccinated people, suggesting they cleared the infection sooner.

“This likely explains why [fully vaccinated] breakthrough cases are as infectious to their contacts as [unvaccinated] cases” said Prof Ajit Lalvani, chair of infectious diseases at Imperial College London and an author of the study.

Just one article on transmission of infected vaccinated people. Others say its not known or its unclear. My point is you can just as easily catch Covid if you are vaccinated, and you can spread it. Some say the viral load is the same, others say it's less. Vaccination also shortens this danger period. Lets assume the viral load is less, thats very helpful but its largely offset by more close contacts in a "live with it" environment. Your viral load may halve (if that's the case) but your contacts with others especially in closed environments probably doubles.

A Google search for "covid vaccinated transmission" gives a wide range of views of the transmission of vaccinated people

Batman

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#2816016 20-Nov-2021 08:27

so what's the point of getting vaccinated? /s

tdgeek

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#2816020 20-Nov-2021 08:38

Batman:

so what's the point of getting vaccinated? /s

Better health outcome.

Geektastic

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#2816027 20-Nov-2021 09:14

I see Austria is going to introduce compulsory vaccination now.

"The surge in Covid cases across Europe is forcing governments to take drastic measures with Austria on course to become the first country in the continent to make coronavirus vaccines mandatory in an effort to curb infections. Vaccines would be required for all Austrians from February 1, with the country also reimposing a strict lockdown. The plans are the most far-reaching of new measures taken by European nations to ease pressure on hospitals, with Belgium, Germany and Norway among the countries beefing up controls. The Austrian plans come as the EU’s medicines regulator said member states were cleared to use Merck’s antiviral pill to treat Covid-19. Alexander Schallenberg, Austria’s chancellor, said on Friday it was time “to face reality” as he announced the new three-week lockdown and said a “general obligation” would apply for all Austrians — where rates of vaccination are among the lowest in western Europe — to get a jab under laws that could be approved within months."

Financial Times.

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#2816048 20-Nov-2021 10:45

tdgeek:
Batman:

so what's the point of getting vaccinated? /s

Better health outcome.

The Israeli researchers found the vaccine to be 39% effective. It appears inevitable we will be infected and infect, but are protected against severe illness. British study says 88% effective as explained in the second link

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

https://www.jpost.com/%20israel-pfizer-news/is-israel-or-the-uk-right-when-it-comes-to-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-674766

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Sup

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#2816051 20-Nov-2021 10:52

tdgeek:

Expanding on this

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/28/covid-vaccinated-likely-unjabbed-infect-cohabiters-study-suggests

Writing in the Lancet, researchers from a number of institutions including Imperial College London and the UK Health Security Agency (HSA) report how they analysed data from 204 household contacts of 138 people infected with the Delta variant.

Of these contacts, who were recruited within five days of their household member showing symptoms and were tested daily for 14 days, 53 went on to become infected, 31 of whom were fully vaccinated and 15 were unvaccinated.

The results suggest even those who are fully vaccinated have a sizeable risk of becoming infected, with analysis revealing a fully vaccinated contact has a 25% chance of catching the virus from an infected household member while an unvaccinated contact has a 38% chance of becoming infected.

The analysis further suggests that whether an infected individual is themselves fully vaccinated or unvaccinated makes little or no difference to how infectious they are to their household contacts.

The team add that the peak level of virus in infected individuals was the same regardless of whether they were jabbed or not, although these levels dropped off more quickly in the vaccinated people, suggesting they cleared the infection sooner.

“This likely explains why [fully vaccinated] breakthrough cases are as infectious to their contacts as [unvaccinated] cases” said Prof Ajit Lalvani, chair of infectious diseases at Imperial College London and an author of the study.

Just one article on transmission of infected vaccinated people. Others say its not known or its unclear. My point is you can just as easily catch Covid if you are vaccinated, and you can spread it. Some say the viral load is the same, others say it's less. Vaccination also shortens this danger period. Lets assume the viral load is less, thats very helpful but its largely offset by more close contacts in a "live with it" environment. Your viral load may halve (if that's the case) but your contacts with others especially in closed environments probably doubles.

A Google search for "covid vaccinated transmission" gives a wide range of views of the transmission of vaccinated people

The limiting factor of this study, is that measuring household members, is like measuring the highest risk, most exposed links in the chain.it is a mistake to extrapolate that vaccines do not impact transmission in a community context....people who live together in close contact....who end up swimming in Covid....are not representative of a macro level highly vaccinated in the community group.

There is also critical information missing in terms of the health status of the people involved in a very small study, what was their general and specific epidemiological profile, were they representative of a mix of healthy and unhealthy people to begin with?

Two things seem very clear. One is that this vaccine like the vast majority of vaccines does not create sterilizing immunity. In fact some scientists believe sterilizing immunity is a Myth. It is possible that there is no such thing as sterilizing immunity, what we may be seeing in highly efficacious vaccines that eradicate viruses, is infected people who were vaccinated, who then fought off the infection, before viral counts reached a measurable level by the assessment tools we have available.

New Zealand because of its unique position in the pandemic world will be a case study in trying to outrun a Delta wave with the use of a ramped up vaccine roll out.

I think we all realize that our two hundred level case numbers, after months of Delta, and people ignoring restrictions, is a statistical outlier. We seem touch wood, to have, been the first country I am aware of, to suppress Delta waves, for this long, after a super spreader initial seeding sequence of transmission events started this whole thing (More than ten Auckland schools, A night Club, A very large Church etc were involved).

It is very clear from our daily case numbers that the vaccines are doing something in terms of transmission and the effect is profound. Victoria had very stringent health measures in place, but once cases hit a certain point the wave rolled on out of control.

I am not discounting the impact of citizen compliance (Victoria has had big problems with human behavior), it has clearly been a big factor, but we are past that now, we are seeing endless reports of people making serious breaches, and this will only be the tip of the Iceberg since the affected include the mentally ill and homeless population of Auckland, which is a transient invisible spreader group.

Covid is a wave, but I better understand it as a snow ball. rolling down the hill, gathering size and momentum.

This is the problem with having nearly a million people unvaccinated in New Zealand, there is a Covid threshold, where there it too much of it in an ecosystem, for any vaccine to fend off, it is like placing health care workers in a Covid ward, giving them P.P.E that is 96% effective, and then asking why are they still getting Covid...why is transmission only slowed a bit...not stopped.

And the more the metaphorical Covid Ward fills with patients, the more staff in this scenario fall ill, and the faster it happens.

So why get vaccinated? Because we have proved with our 200 cases a day, that it is possible, to radically slow Covid, with a suite of interventions all founded on a very aggressive vaccination program (delayed start to the roll out aside).

We will really begin to understand herd immunity principles in the context of a vaccinated population when we are able to vaccinate 5-11 year olds. Until then, studies of infection rates on a population scale, are not going to tell us anymore, than it does not work, leaving 700,00 of little invisible Covid carriers wandering around with runny noses punches some pretty big holes in your defenses....doesn't work dammit!

Just keep swimming...

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#2816059 20-Nov-2021 11:27

In the same theme as the discussion around transmission in households, it will be interesting to see what impact the use of antiviral therapeutics will have as prophylactic (given before infection) treatments..used in a home, where there is an identified case.

The Pfizer pill is making big claims from a small study. I hope that pans out when used widely. Molnupirivir is another (I am a bit cautious about the mechanism of action with this drug at this stage).

Rapid testing will be critical in the use of these therapies, since they have a very narrow window for efficacy. Something like the first 5 days or they are a waste of time...pills that interfere with replication cannot do anything once the virus has replicated already to harmful levels.

Yet another reason to get vaccinated and stay alive? to see what is coming with the several hundred new treatments in development.

Just keep swimming...

rugrat

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#2816061 20-Nov-2021 11:32

People may be screwed doing international travel over Christmas time, New Years. Looks like lab tests don’t happen weekends and holidays, so will be difficult to get results within 72 hours before departure. As Monday, Tuesday are holidays this year 4 days of no testing and backlog afterwards. People in that boat being told it’s their problem.

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2021/11/covid-19-testing-oversight-could-see-thousands-scrambling-to-get-pre-departure-tests-over-christmas-new-year-period.amp.html

Guess it also means a long time for test results in other situations over that time period as well.

Sup

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#2816063 20-Nov-2021 11:39

Geektastic:

I see Austria is going to introduce compulsory vaccination now.

"The surge in Covid cases across Europe is forcing governments to take drastic measures with Austria on course to become the first country in the continent to make coronavirus vaccines mandatory in an effort to curb infections. Vaccines would be required for all Austrians from February 1, with the country also reimposing a strict lockdown. The plans are the most far-reaching of new measures taken by European nations to ease pressure on hospitals, with Belgium, Germany and Norway among the countries beefing up controls. The Austrian plans come as the EU’s medicines regulator said member states were cleared to use Merck’s antiviral pill to treat Covid-19. Alexander Schallenberg, Austria’s chancellor, said on Friday it was time “to face reality” as he announced the new three-week lockdown and said a “general obligation” would apply for all Austrians — where rates of vaccination are among the lowest in western Europe — to get a jab under laws that could be approved within months."

Financial Times.

Crikey that is radical.

I am going to declare my colours here, probably swim against the tide of mainstream thinking. I am glad someone has mandated vaccines. Personal choice is a nonsense when your choice removes someone else's right to be free from harm.

My bias is having worked with a lot of health law and mandates, they are not anxiety provoking for me, this stuff is in my wheel house. Without those laws, our mental health system would collapse. Requiring people to accept treatments against their will, that are for their and societies benefit, happen every day in that system,. Are we somehow exempt from those principles due to our individual rights to be miss informed and make poor decisions? Is this really even about freedom? or is it about a health war we cannot win without conscripting all citizens to the fight?

Even if you do not impose mandates, I am in favor of using all means necessary to win this fight for the principles of the greater good, are we the social Ape? or are homo sapiens evolving into some solitary dysfunctional inter fighting cave people? Excuse the hyperbole. Just making a point.

I am all for rights, but rights come with responsibilities when you live in a society.

I personally prefer less authoritarian mechanisms being used to get compliance, Singapore are bringing in user pays for the unvaccinated hey. Someone will draft a Covid tax eventually, one that is prohibitive....I think Austria should have gone there before this radical paradigm shift.

I get it though, these countries are going broke, no one can afford to pretend this pandemic is not threatening global stability. Aussies response to a unstable world was to buy Nuke Submarines.......

I wonder how many countries will gladly accept Austrian Antivaxx refugees gladly?

Just keep swimming...

tdgeek

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#2816065 20-Nov-2021 11:45

Sup:

The limiting factor of this study, is that measuring household members, is like measuring the highest risk, most exposed links in the chain.it is a mistake to extrapolate that vaccines do not impact transmission in a community context....people who live together in close contact....who end up swimming in Covid....are not representative of a macro level highly vaccinated in the community group.

There is also critical information missing in terms of the health status of the people involved in a very small study, what was their general and specific epidemiological profile, were they representative of a mix of healthy and unhealthy people to begin with?

The limiting factor of this study, is that measuring household members, is like measuring the highest risk, most exposed links in the chain.

Thats true. But compare that to "living with it" concerts, moshpits, cafes, restaurants, gyms and the like. Many people in closed spaces in close contact

Is the 200 case per day, real? How many don't get tested due to MIQ concerns? And all this is under a L4/L3 lockdown, not in the real live with it world.

Vaccines do work for health outcomes, do they stop or reduce transmission amongst the vaccinated? The Google search i mentioned goes from it does, to its unknown, its unclear, to it doesnt.

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tdgeek

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#2816077 20-Nov-2021 11:51

Sup:

In the same theme as the discussion around transmission in households, it will be interesting to see what impact the use of antiviral therapeutics will have as prophylactic (given before infection) treatments..used in a home, where there is an identified case.

The Pfizer pill is making big claims from a small study. I hope that pans out when used widely. Molnupirivir is another (I am a bit cautious about the mechanism of action with this drug at this stage).

Rapid testing will be critical in the use of these therapies, since they have a very narrow window for efficacy. Something like the first 5 days or they are a waste of time...pills that interfere with replication cannot do anything once the virus has replicated already to harmful levels.

Yet another reason to get vaccinated and stay alive? to see what is coming with the several hundred new treatments in development.

My discussion wasn't about transmission in households, its about transmission by vaccinated people.

Ive always wondered if there could be an inhaler that would kill the aerosol borne virus that I inhaled when out one night at an event. Im fully vaccinated, say I am in the 93% protected, great. I would probably get infected but A) no symptoms, B) cold like symptoms. But in the time I breathed it in and when it breeds in my passages, I can expel it. So a scenario where the vast majority are vaccinated, but Covid is everywhere, I go to an event, leave the event and inhale some stuff that kills the recently inhaled aerosol. Is that a possibility? Intention is to vastly reduce the ability to expel a newly inhaled virus particles in the nasal/throat passages. Stop me being a carrier. The vaccine can take care of me for infection

tdgeek

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#2816079 20-Nov-2021 11:59

Sup:

I am going to declare my colours here, probably swim against the tide of mainstream thinking. I am glad someone has mandated vaccines. Personal choice is a nonsense when your choice removes someone else's right to be free from harm.

My bias is having worked with a lot of health law and mandates, they are not anxiety provoking for me, this stuff is in my wheel house. Without those laws, our mental health system would collapse. Requiring people to accept treatments against their will, that are for their and societies benefit, happen every day in that system,. Are we somehow exempt from those principles due to our individual rights to be miss informed and make poor decisions? Is this really even about freedom? or is it about a health war we cannot win without conscripting all citizens to the fight?

Even if you do not impose mandates, I am in favor of using all means necessary to win this fight for the principles of the greater good, are we the social Ape? or are homo sapiens evolving into some solitary dysfunctional inter fighting cave people? Excuse the hyperbole. Just making a point.

I am all for rights, but rights come with responsibilities when you live in a society.

I personally prefer less authoritarian mechanisms being used to get compliance, Singapore are bringing in user pays for the unvaccinated hey. Someone will draft a Covid tax eventually, one that is prohibitive....I think Austria should have gone there before this radical paradigm shift.

I get it though, these countries are going broke, no one can afford to pretend this pandemic is not threatening global stability. Aussies response to a unstable world was to buy Nuke Submarines.......

I wonder how many countries will gladly accept Austrian Antivaxx refugees gladly?

100%

We are already happily controlled by IRD numbers to work, licence numbers to drive, passport numbers to travel. But mandating vaccines to protect everyone around said person is a problem. Ok, my three examples are choices, you dont have to work, or drive, or travel. But the people around an unvaccinated person dont have a choice. My anti vac mate who I'm tiring of, says if your old or have issues get jabbed and stay home. Well, I say to him, dont get jabbed if thats your choice, you stay home. And the vaccine passport essentially does that because we care about our health even if he doesnt care about anyones else's health. Oddly he's been vaccinated "for me" (him)

arcon

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#2816082 20-Nov-2021 12:03

Eva888:

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

https://www.jpost.com/%20israel-pfizer-news/is-israel-or-the-uk-right-when-it-comes-to-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-674766

Best not to post links to a page with outdated data which could discourage vaccination. Article from July before boosters were a thing & Israel was the first to find out that they would be needed. Ourworldindata.org shows things looking pretty good for Israel after boosters. Really should be required reading for all those who might want to disrupt a press event to ask about Israel lol.

tdgeek

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#2816094 20-Nov-2021 12:43

arcon:

Ourworldindata.org shows things looking pretty good for Israel after boosters. Really should be required reading for all those who might want to disrupt a press event to ask about Israel lol.

I read somewhere, but don't have a link, that boosters may provide a higher level of protection and for longer, just as the 2nd jab does compared to the 1st

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