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OK, pulled the Auckland case numbers from the recent Daily Media Releases, Not prefect, but good enough - definitely see that Auckland has reached a plateau recently (maybe even a peak?).
Be interesting to see if this continues into a decline with the easing of restrictions to level 3.2 and retail opening.
Be nice to see a small decline before the traffic light system kicks in.
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Scott3:
wellygary:
Daily case numbers, and more interestingly the 3 day case average is getting very unclear,...
The weekly Peak-Trough pattern has stalled and become much less pronounced ,... Could be close to peaking (last weekend was 176 and 207... this weekend was 172 and 149) .... next 3-4 days will be very telling
Yes, indeed.
When viewed on a log scale (Which I feel is appropriate due to the exponential nature of viral outbreaks), the curve has been concave down for some weeks. (Ignore the projection, it is just extrapolating current estimated R0 in the model):
If the trend of decreasing Re-production number continues we should soon have a reproduction number less than 1, which would be awesome.
From then on, it will be a race between community immunity including "natural, virus derived immunity" and vaccination (considering the impact of additional 1st & 2nd doses, boosters, and decay in protection over time).
Likely Auckland already has it's R0 below 1, despite loosening restrictions, and declining compliance.
We have actually done brilliantly with vaccination in a short time. Currently sitting on 77% of total population with a first dose (MOH numbers). For comparison Germany, Austria, Israel are sitting at 69 or 70% (NY times). And we are still vaccinating at around 6000 first doses a day. If we can hold that number we will pick up an extra percentage point every 8.5 days on our total population numbers. Of course going to be very challenging to keep the numbers up as the remaining vaccinated may be increasingly hard to reach. Hopefully the vaccine pass introduction, and Auckland opening date will create a lot of urgency, and drive up the numbers. With a decent chunk of the country going into Red, a lot of stuff is going to become unavailable to the unvaccinated.
In terms of accuracy of the daily case numbers. I accept that we will not be finding every case, but what matters for the trend analysis is if we are missing the same proportion of cases. If we are finding half and missing half, then the trend analysis is still valid.
We are still doing a lot of testing
And I haven't seen a spike in any other metric (i.e. hospital admissions) to suggest that there is massive growth in undetected cases.
Of course there is sum risk that the virus gets into and cuts through a big chunk of un vaccinated (murapara or similar), which breaks the current trend.
Really impressive intel folks. One thing we can say with some confidence, is that the outbreak has been managed at a level that is world class, of course this is all based off what is behind us as opposed to what is to come, however R Naughts help there.
Even if our daily cases have not plateaued, you cannot say that we have failed to flatten the curve (remember that old lingo, when flattening the curve against the Wuhan Flu was a thing).
If I recall correctly we have a million ish virgin bodies out there unvaccinated? therefore natural immunity, even with missed cases, cannot really be a thing that we can count on. Conversely, in countries where there has been large outbreaks, that have seen declines in cases after vaccine roll outs, can intuitively make some projections about natural immunity which may add up.
However our particular story in all of this has seen a proliferation of cases in specific groups, people ignoring restrictions, drive this thing, so perhaps they will reach some kind of herd immunity of idiots, by virtue of their behavior ensuring they are added to the immunity pile first.
I have not seen a graph for that, the worst behaved axis.
The point I am trying to make, is that this hold on cases seems to be the marrying of vaccines and restrictions in unison on a rarely seen scale (Victoria mirrored our outbreak until the restrictions side was blown apart by mass protest, infected protestors, infected essential workers, people ignoring restrictions....all leading to overwhelming of their vaccine roll out which was close to ours).
I am hoping if we are forced to watch the people of Murupara and or similar groups suffer, largely due to misinformation, some of it quite sinister (coming from health professionals) that we see vaccine rates sky rocket in all of these vulnerable communities.
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Vaccination stats are out. Still waiting for 1 pm release.
Sundays generally have low numbers, but sadly I think this sets are record. Under 10k doses total and roughly 3k first doses.
Auckland DHB is now sitting at 95.6% of elegiacal with a first dose which is very impressive. (MOH just shows as >95% - assume to avoid issues around the population numbers they are using as 100% is approached).
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Just keep swimming...
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