2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2843204 4-Jan-2022 20:34

MikeB4:

Handle9:

There is no “solution”. That has been apparent for some time. There’s only bad or worse.

Stop trolling

How is it trolling? If you have a solution share it.

Handle9

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#2843205 4-Jan-2022 20:36

tdgeek:

Handle9:

There is no “solution”. That has been apparent for some time. There’s only bad or worse.

Whats the solution or outcome for the vulnerable then? So, there is no solution, so what is the outcome?

There is no good solution. It is what it is.

tdgeek

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#2843207 4-Jan-2022 20:44

Handle9:

There is no good solution. It is what it is.

I agree, but we can protect the vulnerable, or is that not feasible? It is what it is a cop out. If the fact that the vulnerable will die and there is no solution, just say it.

MikeB4

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#2843208 4-Jan-2022 20:54

Handle9:

How is it trolling? If you have a solution share it.

I don't try and claim to be an expert in everything like many here. I do listen to those who are experts such as my specialists and my daughter is a medical professional. As I have stated previously I am not going to be drawn into postulating a solution to be trolled here.

MaxineN

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#2843209 4-Jan-2022 21:00

🤦‍♀️

Is this back and forth pandering going to get anyone anywhere and is it going to be good for anyone's faculty?

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

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#2843212 4-Jan-2022 21:11

Sup:

In other news I see there is a new variant in France, local reports are that is is quite nasty, with forty mutations, making a dozen people very ill, however the good news is that it has been around since November and it seems to be getting nowhere due to omicrons much greater spread.

Dubbed "IHU" or B. 1.640.2, the variant is said to have come from Cameroon.

Don't believe everything you read in the clickbait focused mainstream media or people like Eric Feigl Ding who thinks the world is ending every day. This was in the news in October and November but isn't even a variant of concern now - but one media outlet ran a story and suddenly it's global news.

Even the guy who discovered it has tweeted about this and isn't even concerned about it now https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1478118173903839237?s=20

alasta

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#2843217 4-Jan-2022 21:33

sbiddle: Australia saying the majority of cases in ICU across the country have Delta. Shows how much more dangerous it is.

This sounds like bad news for people who were hoping that Omicron would displace Delta.

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#2843220 4-Jan-2022 21:40

MikeB4:

Handle9:

How is it trolling? If you have a solution share it.

I don't try and claim to be an expert in everything like many here. I do listen to those who are experts such as my specialists and my daughter is a medical professional. As I have stated previously I am not going to be drawn into postulating a solution to be trolled here.

@MikeB4 and @Handle9, what about you both wait in the corner for a week and let the grownups continue the conversation? Send me a reminder via PM when the week's past and you want to come back.

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#2843266 4-Jan-2022 22:52

Philippines where my in laws are is going into a lockdown due to hospital load.

With regards to NSW, it would be really interesting to do a random sample to see what percentage of the overall population has covid-19. A number 10% + would indicate that the virus is going to run out of hosts in a matter of week's. Say 2% means the wave could run a heap longer.

Seems like NSW has given up on testing. Reports of a bunch of PCR testing centers being permanently closed. Unclear why. Perhaps resources are getting pulled back into hospitals and the other healthcare.

Massive shortage of Rapid self tests (this seems to be the case globally).

Regarding omicron in ICU, would be interesting to get current numbers on this. If it is still only 25%, this is great news.

Sup:

I saw the Delta vs omicron NSW I.C.U. break down. It seems to be very positive news. Brad Hazzard the Minister for health did claim this the other day, but it is good to have some confirmation of what is going on.

Seemingly the Delta variant got away on them a bit after removing all the restrictions underneath the omicron wave, it does seem omicron is by far the preferable option for adults.

In other news I see there is a new variant in France, local reports are that is is quite nasty, with forty mutations, making a dozen people very ill, however the good news is that it has been around since November and it seems to be getting nowhere due to omicrons much greater spread.

Dubbed "IHU" or B. 1.640.2, the variant is said to have come from Cameroon.

More evidence of the need to vaccinate Africa.

And in other news, an Israeli woman is a documented case of Flurona, or Flu an Covid at the same time, she is pregnant and is doing well with only very mild illness.

The issue, with letting variants run rampant, in an environment with a lot of natural immunity in the 3rd world, and a lot of vaccine derived immunity in the first world, is that the environment is ripe for immunity defeating variants to rise. Not sure if there is anything NZ can really do to impact this we make up a tiny portion of the world population, so our action is essentially negligible.

New strains are going to be inevitable, we just need to cross out fingers and hope they are milder. A nasty, vaccine resistant strain would be bad news for NZ.

Hopefully the global omicron wave will allow covid-19 to burn itself out (via widespread natural immunity) before we get a variant that is resistant to omicron natural immunity.

vexxxboy

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#2843270 4-Jan-2022 22:59

alasta:

Australia saying the majority of cases in ICU across the country have Delta. Shows how much more dangerous it is.

This sounds like bad news for people who were hoping that Omicron would displace Delta.

it would be the first place where Omicrom isnt displacing Delta and it seems that anti bodies you get from Omicron are really good for protecting you from Delta, if that is true then Delta has no where to go and will die out because the unvaccinated will all become vaccinated and the worse thing is that we will never hear the end of it from the Anti vaxxers.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Scott3

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#2843278 4-Jan-2022 23:35

Sup:

I would love to hear the thoughts of Helen Petousis Harris and others from our vaccine advisory group on this subject.

One of the things that I am grateful for as a New Zealander is having independent experts like the vaccine group and medsafe. I have seen people grumble about how long medsafe take to do their own processes and why can't they just follow the FDA or the UK, but I like that we have our own checks and balances....because as you say...the global philosophy around these vaccines appears to often times be using the wrong settings.

All that said, given we know that raw exposure to omicron produces Delta protection, it may well be time for an upgrade, partly on the basis that the old vaccine is falling behind in the evolutionary race and partly to do with having a highly effective vaccine at slowing mutation.

This would take a leap of faith, however this is one of those Devil and the Deep blue sea choices, do we risk the old vaccine being even less effective against the next strain, which we anticipate will be related to either Delta / or more likely omicron.

With so many break through infections we must be risking significant vaccine escape by letting omicron become increasingly fit in a weaker system.

Clearly I do not have the answers. The question is always changing. As you point out, chasing the sterilizing Dragon is not necessarily the right way to approach this either.

It may be the Super immunity of Vaccine plus omicron is really the only true way through.

I haven't really looked into the vaccine advisory group advice.

Would be really interested to know if they are looking into adding moderna into our mix given it's better performance than Pfizer against omicron.

But in terms of doing what we can with what we have, the part seems pritty clear:

We have cira 2.8m doses of vaccine in stock (assume mostly pfizer), so we need to use what we have on hand. Best to talk people out of Astra Zenica if possible in favor of Pfizer due to it's lower delta and omicron protection.
Exert a lot of effort to get primary doses to the remain eligible population who have yet to receive them (despite hitting the law of diminishing returned). Very important, We still have a delta wave, and if omicron comes, primary doses are the best tool we have to keep from getting seriously sick.
With boosters, I have changed my perspective a bit, and think that do an immediate massive push when omicron starts to spread domestically in NZ is the best play Means the maximum number of people will have fresh boosters at the start of the wave, giving maximum protection against infection and hence slowing the spread, and spreading hospital load over more time.

Barring politically unpalatable stuff like a total vaccine mandate above should set up up in the best spot to face omicron.

We will have the following advantages vs NSW:

Largely pfizer vaccine program. AZ kinda sucks vs omicron.
Now out of the sociable Christmas season
Will have better info, so won't do thinks like relaxing mask restrictions a the early in the wave.
Have ample
Will soon have started the 5 - 11 year vaccine roll out.
Will know that issues with our testing system are to be expected.
We will still be able to watch what is going on in NSW, with 4 - 6 weeks up our sleeve to respond to whatever issues they have.

Sup

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#2843279 4-Jan-2022 23:37

sbiddle:

Sup:

In other news I see there is a new variant in France, local reports are that is is quite nasty, with forty mutations, making a dozen people very ill, however the good news is that it has been around since November and it seems to be getting nowhere due to omicrons much greater spread.

Dubbed "IHU" or B. 1.640.2, the variant is said to have come from Cameroon.

Don't believe everything you read in the clickbait focused mainstream media or people like Eric Feigl Ding who thinks the world is ending every day. This was in the news in October and November but isn't even a variant of concern now - but one media outlet ran a story and suddenly it's global news.

Even the guy who discovered it has tweeted about this and isn't even concerned about it now https://twitter.com/PeacockFlu/status/1478118173903839237?s=20

Yeah I looked at it a bit more too. More of a concern is how the poorly vaccinated African continent is throwing out these mutations that have so many changes.

The same thing happened with Mu although Mu was far more successful at the time, Delta destroyed Mu though, and Mu was quite a nasty strain.

Beta was a nasty strain, that got shafted, as did Alpha which was pretty bad. Lambda was quite bad in South America...but again Delta took it down.

This variant though nowhere near as infectious has an appalling strike rate though. I am actually expecting multiple variants to pop up given the rate and speed of spread from omicron and I suspect one of the strains will come from India again.

Just keep swimming...

Sup

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#2843282 5-Jan-2022 00:02

Scott3:

Philippines where my in laws are is going into a lockdown due to hospital load.

With regards to NSW, it would be really interesting to do a random sample to see what percentage of the overall population has covid-19. A number 10% + would indicate that the virus is going to run out of hosts in a matter of week's. Say 2% means the wave could run a heap longer.

Seems like NSW has given up on testing. Reports of a bunch of PCR testing centers being permanently closed. Unclear why. Perhaps resources are getting pulled back into hospitals and the other healthcare.

Massive shortage of Rapid self tests (this seems to be the case globally).

Regarding omicron in ICU, would be interesting to get current numbers on this. If it is still only 25%, this is great news.

Sup:

I saw the Delta vs omicron NSW I.C.U. break down. It seems to be very positive news. Brad Hazzard the Minister for health did claim this the other day, but it is good to have some confirmation of what is going on.

Seemingly the Delta variant got away on them a bit after removing all the restrictions underneath the omicron wave, it does seem omicron is by far the preferable option for adults.

In other news I see there is a new variant in France, local reports are that is is quite nasty, with forty mutations, making a dozen people very ill, however the good news is that it has been around since November and it seems to be getting nowhere due to omicrons much greater spread.

Dubbed "IHU" or B. 1.640.2, the variant is said to have come from Cameroon.

More evidence of the need to vaccinate Africa.

And in other news, an Israeli woman is a documented case of Flurona, or Flu an Covid at the same time, she is pregnant and is doing well with only very mild illness.

The issue, with letting variants run rampant, in an environment with a lot of natural immunity in the 3rd world, and a lot of vaccine derived immunity in the first world, is that the environment is ripe for immunity defeating variants to rise. Not sure if there is anything NZ can really do to impact this we make up a tiny portion of the world population, so our action is essentially negligible.

New strains are going to be inevitable, we just need to cross out fingers and hope they are milder. A nasty, vaccine resistant strain would be bad news for NZ.

Hopefully the global omicron wave will allow covid-19 to burn itself out (via widespread natural immunity) before we get a variant that is resistant to omicron natural immunity.

That is a bummer about the Philippines.

In my gut I cannot believe that omicron burning out will be the end of this. I just think this particular virus is quite special and unique. It has a phenomenal ability to alter itself and deal with any challenges in the environment.

Experts often call it seasonal. That is rubbish. It has a seasonal aspect in that it is worse in the winter, but these waves are anything but seasonal....there is no Covid free summer, you get some brief respite at the trough of the waves, but look at Aussie right now...no way they are having a seasonal break from Covid.

This flower is a perennial. There is little to no advantage to letting it rip in Summer, it just comes at you in Winter, look at the UK and the US.

However, I can see how we as a species are becoming more immune to it, and there are some subtle but seemingly important changes to the symptoms. But given Covids unpredictable nature, it would be a fool who banks his life on Covid continuing to play nice in its next iteration.

I guess I am very much in the never turn your back on it camp.

Just keep swimming...

tdgeek

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#2843342 5-Jan-2022 07:41

This is unreal

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/tennis/300490363/novak-djokovic-receives-medical-exemption-to-play-at-australian-open

Djokovic has always declined to offer his vax status, so IMO he is an anti-vaxxer. Now he gets a medical exemption to travel to Australia for the AUS Open. He is the drawcard, so he gets a free ride while everyone else needs to be vaxxed or have a REAL reason for an exemption.

SJB

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#2843356 5-Jan-2022 08:43

Tried to book a booster jab online today and still seems to be insisting on 6 months.

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