2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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1787 posts

Uber Geek

#2857086 27-Jan-2022 11:29

The reductions are only a few days (14 to 10 and 10 to 7), you are still talking about 1million+ people isolating for a minimum of 10-17 days (assuming no infection merry-go-round effect within households).

Truck drivers isolating, no one to deliver essentials like food, petrol etc

Healthcare workers isolating, no one to look after those that actually need it.

Shops unable to open due to no staff

The list goes on and on and on.

I get that its a pandemic and that there are vulnerable members of society to be protected, but I suspect its going to get very messy for a period, I just don't know what that mess is going to look like.

vexxxboy

4243 posts

Uber Geek

#2857087 27-Jan-2022 11:30

Jase2985:

NSW hit 90k cases once, 62k once and the rest was under 50k. They have more people in the state (8.1m) and more people closely packed in Sydney (5.3m), less restrictions, lower vaccination rates at the start of them omicron wave.

Those numbers must be absolute worst case numbers. or the modelers are smoking something good.

Our more spaced out population should help a bit with case numbers.

and even if we did we would never know because i doubt our testing centres and labs could process that many tests in one day

Common sense is not as common as you think.

sen8or

1787 posts

Uber Geek

#2857088 27-Jan-2022 11:31

Jase2985:

Our more spaced out population should help a bit with case numbers.

Agreed, but thats not what the department of fear is publicizing

trig42

5809 posts

Uber Geek

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#2857111 27-Jan-2022 12:10

Jase2985:

sen8or:

So if the modellers predictions turn out to be true (50-80k cases per day) and following the isolation rules, how is the country / economy expected to operate?

NSW hit 90k cases once, 62k once and the rest was under 50k. They have more people in the state (8.1m) and more people closely packed in Sydney (5.3m), less restrictions, lower vaccination rates at the start of them omicron wave.

Those numbers must be absolute worst case numbers. or the modelers are smoking something good.

Our more spaced out population should help a bit with case numbers.

I see what you did there :)

Jas777

838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2857113 27-Jan-2022 12:13

Jase2985:

NSW hit 90k cases once, 62k once and the rest was under 50k. They have more people in the state (8.1m) and more people closely packed in Sydney (5.3m), less restrictions, lower vaccination rates at the start of them omicron wave.

Those numbers must be absolute worst case numbers. or the modelers are smoking something good.

Our more spaced out population should help a bit with case numbers.

The 90k and 62k numbers are misleading as they included RAT numbers which were for more than just 1 day.

TVNZ had a piece where they said the highest daily rate was 90k but didn't mention why it was so high.

The models will work on worst case as then if they get it wrong and they will, they can not be accused of under estimating the affects if there are problems with health outcomes.

Jas777

838 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2857115 27-Jan-2022 12:19

sen8or:

The reductions are only a few days (14 to 10 and 10 to 7), you are still talking about 1million+ people isolating for a minimum of 10-17 days (assuming no infection merry-go-round effect within households).

Truck drivers isolating, no one to deliver essentials like food, petrol etc

Healthcare workers isolating, no one to look after those that actually need it.

Shops unable to open due to no staff

The list goes on and on and on.

I get that its a pandemic and that there are vulnerable members of society to be protected, but I suspect its going to get very messy for a period, I just don't know what that mess is going to look like.

There will not be 1 million people isolating because a lot of people who get it will not be tested either because they never know they had it or the contract tracing will not be good enough to identify enough people for the 1 million you say.

Ge0rge

2052 posts

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#2857116 27-Jan-2022 12:23

Jas777:
The models will work on worst case as then if they get it wrong and they will, they can not be accused of under estimating the affects if there are problems with health outcomes.

As someone who has daily contact with modlers working on this, you couldn't be more wrong.

The modlers present multiple scenarios based on the information that they have to work with and relevant assumptions which get factored to produce different estimates.

The media do not report any of the assumptions or caveats that go with the modelling, nor any further information for that particular model's parameters - they grab the largest number, make it a screaming headline to get clicks, then move on when they report wrong.

You do the modelling teams a disservice with your flippant comment.

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debo

307 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2857171 27-Jan-2022 14:49

Ge0rge:
Jas777:
The models will work on worst case as then if they get it wrong and they will, they can not be accused of under estimating the affects if there are problems with health outcomes.

As someone who has daily contact with modlers working on this, you couldn't be more wrong.

The modlers present multiple scenarios based on the information that they have to work with and relevant assumptions which get factored to produce different estimates.

The media do not report any of the assumptions or caveats that go with the modelling, nor any further information for that particular model's parameters - they grab the largest number, make it a screaming headline to get clicks, then move on when they report wrong.

You do the modelling teams a disservice with your flippant comment.

Do the modelers publish their scenarios to the general public? It would be interesting to read them straight from the source rather that the main stream media mumble jumble.

sen8or

1787 posts

Uber Geek

#2857172 27-Jan-2022 14:50

Jas777:

sen8or:

The reductions are only a few days (14 to 10 and 10 to 7), you are still talking about 1million+ people isolating for a minimum of 10-17 days (assuming no infection merry-go-round effect within households).

Truck drivers isolating, no one to deliver essentials like food, petrol etc

Healthcare workers isolating, no one to look after those that actually need it.

Shops unable to open due to no staff

The list goes on and on and on.

I get that its a pandemic and that there are vulnerable members of society to be protected, but I suspect its going to get very messy for a period, I just don't know what that mess is going to look like.

There will not be 1 million people isolating because a lot of people who get it will not be tested either because they never know they had it or the contract tracing will not be good enough to identify enough people for the 1 million you say.

If the Govt reports 50k +/- per day actual infections (which is what has reportedly been happening to date, reporting confirmed cases), one would assume that the people have been notified of their infection and requirement to isolate (perhaps not contact tracers, but certainly an automated SMS / push notification to their phone at a minimum). There is then the requirement for household contacts to also isolate (presumably the responsibility for informing the household contacts passes to the infected?). If this is what is happening, you'll find my estimate of 1mio people pretty conservative, especially when the isolation time resets with each infection.

If they are reporting a mix of actual numbers along with hidden cases (as you say, those that don't get tested for whatever reason), then thats a very scary prospect, they could simply make up any number they wanted to that would suit their narrative. No one wants a Govt that does that, whatever colour their logo is.

KellyP

1245 posts

Uber Geek

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Subscriber

#2857194 27-Jan-2022 15:23

1,442 first doses of the vaccine given yesterday... thats a significant jump

ezbee

2405 posts

Uber Geek

#2857197 27-Jan-2022 15:28

The model that the news articles are talking of is the one by
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, in Seattle, its all here so 'fill your boots'

https://covid19.healthdata.org/new-zealand?view=resource-use&tab=trend&resource=all_resources

You see with 80% mask use their numbers go down to 50K.

You can see a button to click on to see cases and reported case, the reported number peaking about 11K per day.

There seems to be general agreement that there are far more cases in large outbreaks.
Modeling must address this at least to then model the chains of infection and progress.

The NZ modelling organizations provide a range of potential predictions, high, mid low, given variability of behavior.
News organizations go for maximum numbers, as do critics.
Potential lower numbers or mid range not so interesting.

Unexpected things do happen.
Us crushing the early SARS-Co outbreaks was a surprise and overseas commentators described as ever more impossible with each.

I'm not saying its posters here, but elsewhere.
Proponents of 'everyone is going to get it' then protest at the scale of the model ?
How many need to be infected per day to get to 5 Million in 30-60-90 days.

sen8or

1787 posts

Uber Geek

#2857216 27-Jan-2022 16:05

ezbee:

The model that the news articles are talking of is the one by
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, in Seattle, its all here so 'fill your boots'

https://covid19.healthdata.org/new-zealand?view=resource-use&tab=trend&resource=all_resources

You see with 80% mask use their numbers go down to 50K.

You can see a button to click on to see cases and reported case, the reported number peaking about 11K per day.

There seems to be general agreement that there are far more cases in large outbreaks.
Modeling must address this at least to then model the chains of infection and progress.

The NZ modelling organizations provide a range of potential predictions, high, mid low, given variability of behavior.
News organizations go for maximum numbers, as do critics.
Potential lower numbers or mid range not so interesting.

Unexpected things do happen.
Us crushing the early SARS-Co outbreaks was a surprise and overseas commentators described as ever more impossible with each.

I'm not saying its posters here, but elsewhere.
Proponents of 'everyone is going to get it' then protest at the scale of the model ?
How many need to be infected per day to get to 5 Million in 30-60-90 days.

Thanks for the link. Erring on the high side is good for headlines and helping push people into action, but it leaves it wide open for criticism and anti-vax (or anti-lockdown, freedom rights etc) proponents to simply highlight that MSM is "pushing a Govt agenda and that we are all sheep having our rights stolen etc..."

No one wants to get sick, nor do you want to be responsible for passing it on to someone else where it could be far more damaging to their health, but by consistently throwing out worst case scenarios, each time those scenarios don't eventuate, it makes the next scenario that little less plausible.

bazzer

3438 posts

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Trusted

#2857392 27-Jan-2022 20:47

Jas777:

The models will work on worst case as then if they get it wrong and they will, they can not be accused of under estimating the affects if there are problems with health outcomes.

If the modellers are any good, this will not be the case. They will have a best estimate, i.e. not intended to be either optimistic or conservative. They will also run the numbers with more optimistic or conservative parameters, intended to show the distribution of likely outcomes. I would assume they give all this information to the appropriate people, but that they may be selective about which results are widely published.

Edit: way too late to the party...

cokemaster

Exited
4927 posts

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#2857393 27-Jan-2022 20:50

debo: ...

Do the modelers publish their scenarios to the general public? It would be interesting to read them straight from the source rather that the main stream media mumble jumble.

I have had some success getting data via the OIA process. Its not ideal timewise but it can be fairly detailed :)

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mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2857406 27-Jan-2022 21:28

sen8or:

Jas777:

There will not be 1 million people isolating because a lot of people who get it will not be tested either because they never know they had it or the contract tracing will not be good enough to identify enough people for the 1 million you say.

If the Govt reports 50k +/- per day actual infections (which is what has reportedly been happening to date, reporting confirmed cases), one would assume that the people have been notified of their infection and requirement to isolate (perhaps not contact tracers, but certainly an automated SMS / push notification to their phone at a minimum). There is then the requirement for household contacts to also isolate (presumably the responsibility for informing the household contacts passes to the infected?). If this is what is happening, you'll find my estimate of 1mio people pretty conservative, especially when the isolation time resets with each infection.

If they are reporting a mix of actual numbers along with hidden cases (as you say, those that don't get tested for whatever reason), then thats a very scary prospect, they could simply make up any number they wanted to that would suit their narrative. No one wants a Govt that does that, whatever colour their logo is.

From the article I read about testing, once infections get high, our testing rate will drop to about 10,000 per day, as they then can't then mix the samples. So I can't see how we will ever get to that number of official positive cases per day as the testing will be overwhelmed by then. RAT tests maybe send instead but they are less accurate, so potentailly more flase negatives, and therefore likely to underreport cases. Plus we don't have a huge number of RAT tests anyway.

But my biggest issue at the moment is the way some of the media outlets in NZ are hyping this all up, and it will only get worse in the coming weeks.

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