2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2874104 24-Feb-2022 15:05

mattwnz:

In terms of the peak, I see that modeling showed that NZ could hit a peak of 80,000 a day. Guessing that is actual cases, not just people that got tested, as actual cases are a lot higher today than just 6000. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-modelling-suggests-nz-could-face-peak-of-80000-daily-infections/TAH4ABKCQ3ZPMNK5FVWQTVE4FE/ But this modeling shows that it should have spread faster than it currently has

We were capped at pretty much 30K PCRs per day,

But now that a +ve RAT doesn't need to be followed by a PCR the only shackle on cases numbers is the availability of RATs,

As that improves over the next week I would expect tested +ve cases ( esp in Auckland) to really go through the Roof, Middlemore was reporting a 20% +ve on its tests on admissions/ED patients, so its truely on fire up there...

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#2874108 24-Feb-2022 15:12

mattwnz:

In terms of the peak, I see that modeling showed that NZ could hit a peak of 80,000 a day. Guessing that is actual cases, not just people that got tested, as actual cases are a lot higher today than just 6000.

I know more people here in Melbourne who tested positive on a RAT through surveillance testing with no symptoms than those who actually had even mild symptoms. Anecdotal of course, but I think it does suggest that there are a LOT more cases out there than are being picked up. It's probably not unreasonable to think the actual cases numbers could easily be double what is being picked up officially.

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tdgeek

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#2874115 24-Feb-2022 15:24

I've read maybe 8X. If its 3 to 6 times more transmissable than Delta, and a number seem to be symptom free, and people can go anywhere they like, 8X seems very feasible

ajobbins

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#2874117 24-Feb-2022 15:28

tdgeek:

I've read maybe 8X. If its 3 to 6 times more transmissable than Delta, and a number seem to be symptom free, and people can go anywhere they like, 8X seems very feasible

Could be. Also worth considering that the peak in VIC we had major constraints on both PCR testing and RAT availability. Both are easy to get now, but there were a few weeks there where basically your chance of getting any kind of test was slim.

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johno1234

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#2874158 24-Feb-2022 16:42

ajobbins:

mattwnz:

In terms of the peak, I see that modeling showed that NZ could hit a peak of 80,000 a day. Guessing that is actual cases, not just people that got tested, as actual cases are a lot higher today than just 6000.

I know more people here in Melbourne who tested positive on a RAT through surveillance testing with no symptoms than those who actually had even mild symptoms. Anecdotal of course, but I think it does suggest that there are a LOT more cases out there than are being picked up. It's probably not unreasonable to think the actual cases numbers could easily be double what is being picked up officially.

Some days ago Michael Baker said it could be 10x the reported number. Seems likely given the testing positivity of Middlemore ED presentations at 20%

Oblivian

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#2874188 24-Feb-2022 17:30

This doesn't appear to be on the website. But shared on socials.

Easy to follow for family members who still don't get it

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#2874195 24-Feb-2022 17:43

I too would be interested to know if all those people in hospital with covid, are actually receiving treatment for it or not.

I suspect many have broken bones, got stabbed, or are on dialysis etc.

And.......

If covid can be detected in the wastewater, why cant they make a home test that you pee on like for pregnancy?

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#2874221 24-Feb-2022 18:20

kiwifidget:

And.......

If covid can be detected in the wastewater, why cant they make a home test that you pee on like for pregnancy?

i suspect you'll find its more likely to be found in #2's than #1's so unless you want to do a stool sample its probably more pleasant to do a nasal RAT.

ezbee

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#2874330 24-Feb-2022 20:43

kiwifidget:

I too would be interested to know if all those people in hospital with covid, are actually receiving treatment for it or not.

I suspect many have broken bones, got stabbed, or are on dialysis etc.

And.......

If covid can be detected in the wastewater, why cant they make a home test that you pee on like for pregnancy?

Probably not good news if you are on dialysis
https://www.politics.co.uk/news-in-brief/kidney-charities-warn-of-omicron-danger-to-dialysis-patients-as-plan-b-covid-measures-scrapped/

You have something that suppresses your immune system like cancer treatment amongst others.
You get a bacterial infection in your stab wound or pneumonia as you have been laid low and drugged up, so vulnerable.
YMMV

Oblivian

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#2874728 25-Feb-2022 13:47

The word for today is ouch.

With that rate it's not going to be long till you don't know someone

12011. 27%

5 'with' fatalities (again, seems we are following who and it is not OF)

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#2874731 25-Feb-2022 13:49

Oblivian: The word for today is ouch.

With that rate it's not going to be long till you don't know someone

I already don't know a lot of people.

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#2874732 25-Feb-2022 13:50

Oblivian: The word for today is ouch.

With that rate it's not going to be long till you don't know someone

The plus side is that with such high infection rates, pretty much this will all be over pretty quickly as everyone will have had it.

With the exception of the hospitals and other loads that will be hammered as a result, getting it over and done with quickly is ideal.

The downside is that we are really still only seeing what was happening 14 days ago and those numbers are far lower based on the fact we don't have testing capacity.

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#2874737 25-Feb-2022 13:54

networkn:

Oblivian: The word for today is ouch.

With that rate it's not going to be long till you don't know someone

The plus side is that with such high infection rates, pretty much this will all be over pretty quickly as everyone will have had it.

Except that having it once won't prevent someone to having it a second or third time.

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Paul1977

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#2874738 25-Feb-2022 13:54

I welcome the common sense change of rules around close contacts, it just makes sense and will save many businesses from being forced to needlessly close their doors.

I personally would have liked to see more relaxation around household contacts as well. Given the large number of undiagnosed asymptomatic cases there likely are, I suspect isolating household contacts of known cases will do little to slow the spread. They're being cautious, but probably not unreasonably so at this point.

I honestly believe that because of our high vaccination rate that, even if we completely opened up and stopped all restrictions, Omicron wouldn't overwhelm the health system; but I can understand the Government wanting to watch the numbers carefully before making an extreme change like that.

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#2874739 25-Feb-2022 13:56

freitasm:

Except that having it once won't prevent someone to having it a second or third time.

Correct, but not for a few months at least. There are some cases sooner, but unusual.

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