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invisibleman18
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  #2941892 14-Jul-2022 15:40
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geekIT:

 

I don't understand the circumstances of these unfortunate people. Are they predominantly old? Maori and Pasifika? Unvaccinated? Vaccinated but unboosted? Anti-maskers? Or perhaps folk who've done all the right things but have still succumbed to the virus? If large numbers fall into the latter category, we should all be worried, IMHO.

 

 

My wife and I have had it over the last 2 weeks. Both mid 30s and healthy, vaxxed and boosted, done everything right. She works at a major Hospital and has been around patients with it every day for months, but some how avoided it (perhaps thanks to the PPE - N95 masks all day, plus face shields when dealing with a positive patient etc). I work from home so close contact with others has been limited, but do go to the gym/play sport (primarily tennis, which along with golf is probably the easiest sport to play while remaining distanced from your opponent) a few times a week where masks won't be worn. 

 

We went away for a week 3 weeks ago, rented a house and self-catered, kept entirely to ourselves other than one dinner out as a treat. Came down with it a few days after we got home, presumably picked up at the restaurant while away. Feel like we have done everything right but unfortunately got unlucky the first time in months we had been out for dinner. Only way to avoid it forever is probably to never leave your house again.

 

 

 

 




cshwone
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  #2941894 14-Jul-2022 15:46
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geekIT:

 

I haven't followed this thread for a while, so please excuse me if I'm covering old ground.

 

In the last few weeks there seems to have been a very large number of new COVID cases; would 150,000 be an exaggeration?

 

I don't understand the circumstances of these unfortunate people. Are they predominantly old? Maori and Pasifika? Unvaccinated? Vaccinated but unboosted? Anti-maskers? Or perhaps folk who've done all the right things but have still succumbed to the virus? If large numbers fall into the latter category, we should all be worried, IMHO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Me, consistent mask wearer, 60's,  3 Jabs, positive in Jun. SWMBO 50's same mask habits plus additional PPE when dealing with positive cases (care worker), 4 jabs and positive in July.

 

I would say it is just rampant out there. Just do the best you can with masks, distancing and avoiding large indoor gatherings. We haven't been out to eat or go to a bar far an awful long time.


cruxis
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  #2941897 14-Jul-2022 15:52
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$1.1 Billion on Rat Tests? That must be a typo? How many nurses , teachers, police is that. Or a chch stadium. Is it time to stop spending so much on this?




wellygary
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  #2941906 14-Jul-2022 16:27
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cruxis:

 

$1.1 Billion on Rat Tests? That must be a typo? How many nurses , teachers, police is that. Or a chch stadium. Is it time to stop spending so much on this?

 

 

~200 million tests @ $5 NZD a test = $1 billion,  so Its certainly in the ballpark, 

 

(but its significantly cheaper than a PCR, which I think the Govt was paying about $30/test )

 

If you want people to test then you have to make it free.. otherwise no one will bother - although we might be at that point anyway- which is why they still have heaps of test kits piling up....

 

 


mkissin
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  #2941907 14-Jul-2022 16:39
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cruxis:

 

$1.1 Billion on Rat Tests? That must be a typo? How many nurses , teachers, police is that. Or a chch stadium. Is it time to stop spending so much on this?

 

 

What's the alternative?

 

You/we might be over Covid, but it's not over us. Whatever happens, we still must avoid having the health service overwhelmed, otherwise a bunch of really bad stuff starts happening. That means reducing/slowing the spread by whatever means possible.

 

Making the health system better able to cope with this, as well as all manor of other things, is definitely a great idea but it's not something that can be done in a hurry.


HelloThere
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  #2941990 14-Jul-2022 19:55
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What's the expiry date on the RAT tests like? The Government probably have so many in stock due to a lot of people slowly getting over covid and wanting to move on, giving them away is the only way to keep the tests moving through the supply chain.

 
 
 

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wellygary
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  #2941991 14-Jul-2022 20:01
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HelloThere: What's the expiry date on the RAT tests like? The Government probably have so many in stock due to a lot of people slowly getting over covid and wanting to move on, giving them away is the only way to keep the tests moving through the supply chain.

 

The ones we got in May have a Jan-2024 exp... so its not like they have that short a shelf life


DS248
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  #2942282 15-Jul-2022 16:15
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Why the Omicron offshoot BA.5 is a big deal ... [in the US]

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/07/14/health/omicron-ba-5-variant-immunity-severity/index.html

 

... "We're looking at probably close to a million new cases a day," Dr. Peter Hotez said Monday on CNN [allowing for gross under-reporting due to self-testing]

 

... Still, about 300 to 350 people are dying on average each day from Covid-19, ...

 

"That is unacceptable. It's too high," Dr. Ashish Jha, coordinator for the White House Covid-19 Response Team, said at Tuesday's briefing.

 

 

 

So, in the US, 300 to 350 deaths (~1 death per day / million people) is "unacceptable".

 

Yet in NZ there seems little concern that we are now averaging ~4 deaths per day / million people (ie. ~20/day). 

 

Indeed, the 7-day average has not dropped below 2 deaths per day / million people since 20 March.

 

 

 

 

 

 


HelloThere
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  #2942283 15-Jul-2022 16:23
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DS248:

Yet in NZ there seems little concern that we are now averaging ~4 deaths per day / million people (ie. ~20/day). 


Indeed, the 7-day average has not dropped below 2 deaths per day / million people since 20 March.



I think the covid deaths is a little bit misleading. How many of those 20 per day have died because of covid?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm lead to believe that is someone tests positive then 14 days late they tested negative and then die 27 days later in a car accident they will still be classed as a covid death as it was within 28 days of testing positive?

DS248
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  #2942291 15-Jul-2022 16:47
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HelloThere: ...

 

I think the covid deaths is a little bit misleading. How many of those 20 per day have died because of covid?

...

 

 

 

Hard to believe this keeps getting raised in this thread.  Why attempt to minimise the situation rather than investigating to check what the situation is if you are not satisfied with the info posted?

 

The stats are readily available on the MOH site.

 

This has been covered off several times in this thread, including as recently as 9 days ago.  See #2938844 

 

And also #2938816 for a comparison with some AU states.  Updated version of that data below.

 

Simple fact is we are now performing poorly compared with many comparable countries.

 

 

 


mattwnz
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  #2942339 15-Jul-2022 16:55
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HelloThere:

I think the covid deaths is a little bit misleading. How many of those 20 per day have died because of covid?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I'm lead to believe that is someone tests positive then 14 days late they tested negative and then die 27 days later in a car accident they will still be classed as a covid death as it was within 28 days of testing positive?

 

 

 

Pretty sure the MOH has previously covered this multiple times. 


 
 
 
 

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mattwnz
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  #2942340 15-Jul-2022 16:58
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DS248:

 

HelloThere: ...

 

I think the covid deaths is a little bit misleading. How many of those 20 per day have died because of covid?

...

 

 

 

Hard to believe this keeps getting raised in this thread.  Why attempt to minimise the situation rather than investigating to check what the situation is if you are not satisfied with the info posted?

 

The stats are readily available on the MOH site.

 

This has been covered off several times in this thread, including as recently as 9 days ago.  See #2938844 

 

And also #2938816 for a comparison with some AU states.  Updated version of that data below.

 

Simple fact is we are now performing poorly compared with many comparable countries.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wonder if one reason we are preforming poorly, apart from the complacency and lack of mask wearing, is because those people who would have died in 2020-2021 but never caught it, are now dying. It seems to be rampant in rest homes, but pretty much no coverage these days about the vulnerable catching it. We have been conditioned that double digit death is now the new normal, even though it could be the leading cause of death in NZ and is preventable with more N95 mask use.


DS248
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  #2942346 15-Jul-2022 17:12
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mattwnz:

 

... I wonder if one reason we are preforming poorly, apart from the complacency and lack of mask wearing, is because those people who would have died in 2020-2021 but never caught it, are now dying. ...

 

 

 

 

If that was a critical factor QLD and WA should be faring worse than NZ since covid death totals per capita over the pandemic in those states are lower than in NZ (significantly lower in the case of WA).  Yet their current deaths per capita are significantly lower than ours.

 

More likely, standard of medical care is a factor?

 

Eg. NZ about to make antivirals available to all 75+ (& some others).  AU made them available recently to all 70+ (& some others).  Plus as raised previously, higher ICU utilisation, at least in some states (only checked NSW & WA).

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2942531 16-Jul-2022 07:57
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mattwnz:

 

I wonder if one reason we are preforming poorly, apart from the complacency and lack of mask wearing, is because those people who would have died in 2020-2021 but never caught it, are now dying. It seems to be rampant in rest homes, but pretty much no coverage these days about the vulnerable catching it. We have been conditioned that double digit death is now the new normal, even though it could be the leading cause of death in NZ and is preventable with more N95 mask use.

 

 

I dont see how we are performing poorly. Each country has been in different stages of the pandemic. Conversely you could say that in April 2020 our performance was sensational, but the fact is it got here late.

 

We had lockdowns and performed very well. Now, we are living wth it, as thats what most people want, thats the complacency. Its now up to ME to perform well, I have that control. So, if we have a need for "NZ" to perform well, there are two options. 1. Mass lockdowns   2. Individuals do their bit. Choose one.

 

 

 

 


freitasm
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  #2942538 16-Jul-2022 08:56
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Read an article today that there are about 110,000 cases being reported daily in the USA but the expectation is this being actually seven times as high*.

 

Considering comments that our current number of cases could be double of those reported, it would put New Zealand at a rate 50% higher that the current US rate per capita**.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* FTA: "We estimate that for every reported case there are 7 unreported," Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, wrote in an email.

 

** Assuming 20k cases/day in NZ and 880k cases/day in the USA for their 5 and 329 million populations. 





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