2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

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#2446273 25-Mar-2020 13:46

MikeB4:

Lets get real people, it is a quantum leap between the Defence force assisting Police to Martial Law. The NZ army and Navy assisted with Christchurch, Kaikoura and also Napier and this did not mean martial law. I am aware that my comments will now attract the usual sniping but talk of martial law is scare mongering and not at all helpful.

I wouldn't get too wound up with definitions - ie calling it "martial law" or whatever.

The NZ Army more than merely "assisted" after the Chch quakes, they set up and maintained road blocks around red zones, with army trucks and armed soldiers very visible. What was at risk there was property (preventing looting) and preventing complete morons from trying to retrieve their own property in a haphazard manner from buildings that were at risk from collapsing with constant aftershock activity. The level of civil disobedience to something sensible was unbelievable. High profile business people were boasting in the media about how they'd been able to get into their offices to retrieve stuff - that they decided was more "important" than the common good.

There's much more at risk here. Expect to see a very visible army presence.

tdgeek

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#2446275 25-Mar-2020 13:49

gchiu:

Is that exponential or flattening?

CT remains at 4.

The rest are due to flights, I see it as matching the increased number of flights, and the much higher risk of those passengers carrying the virus as the country of origin are getting worse. So the daily numbers should be rising, as the source is rising. That source we know, and happily accept, as they are Kiwis returning home. They should all be out of circulation. Alert Level 4 is because of CT, as per Dr Bloomfield. CT has gone from 0 to 1 to 2 and to 4, still 4 today. To contain CT we stay home. And if CT grows, as it will, those that are CT are staying at home. Then they will become symptomatic, but be out of circulation. If almost everyone is out of circulation (as Alert Level 4 provides) that's a barrier that the virus cannot breach. Its hostless. It dies. Thats the plan, its only ever been about CT

Fred99

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#2446276 25-Mar-2020 13:51

Ge0rge:
freitasm:

205 probable cases in New Zealand now. Six people in hospital - three in Wellington, two in Rotorua, one Waikato.

I've been wondering over the last few days - is this number not a false metric?

The MoH has also said that 22 people have recovered and are clear of Covid-19, so technically we only have 183 cases? Yes, we've had 205, but if we carry on like this the numbers will become meaningless - "NZ has 50,000 cases (well, actually 544, the rest have recovered)"

Surely it should be changed to "active cases", otherwise we are never going to see a decrease in this number - it might stop rising eventually, but it will never drop.

I must be missing something I think.

It's easy to extract that figure from the MOH "current cases" website.

So far, I'm very happy with their level of reporting. We're looking more like Singapore than for example the USA (which will be a basket case in a week or two).

gchiu

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#2446277 25-Mar-2020 13:52

so, there is no exponential increase in the infections amongst the returnees?

tdgeek

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#2446278 25-Mar-2020 13:54

iamaelephant:

freitasm:

205 probable cases in New Zealand now. Six people in hospital - three in Wellington, two in Rotorua, one Waikato.

Seeing as how we haven't done nearly enough and our isolation period hasn't even started, this is good evidence that we're simply not testing enough, or testing well enough. It's just vanishingly unlikely that our growth rate would be declining at this moment.

There are 4 cases not 205. the 205 we imported, we always knew of them, they go to isolation. The 4 we dont know about them, and while we still search, Level 4 is there to shut them down. Them being the people that infected these known 4 CT's and the other CT's that are not yet known.

neb

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#2446279 25-Mar-2020 13:56

Sideface:
BEIJING - China is pushing a new theory about the origins of the coronavirus: It is an American disease that might have been introduced by members of the United States Army who visited Wuhan in October.

Could this just be pushback against the aleph one rumours from the US about it being a Chinese bioweapon? In other words if the US has to spend time denying they did it then they have less time to claim China did it.

geekiegeek

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#2446280 25-Mar-2020 13:56

Quote from Australian chief medical officer after reviewing submissions for how strict to lockdown - "But the idea that you can put measures in place for four weeks and suddenly stop them and the virus will be gone is not credible," he said. "So, we are very keen to put as restrictive measures in place without completely destroying life as we know it."

Haven't seen any information regarding what our exit plan is for after 4 weeks. Personally I'm thinking this will go for a lot longer then 4 weeks, possibly 3 months or more. Even then, we would still have the issue of cases arriving from overseas unless we keep our borders closed indefinitely until the world is post-CV19.

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tdgeek

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#2446281 25-Mar-2020 13:56

Zepanda66:

Did I hear that right? "Defence force expected to use their power where necessary"?

I heard that they are now made available. Not quite the same as expected to be patrolling the streets. That depends how many dimwits flout the alert rules

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2446282 25-Mar-2020 13:58

gchiu:

so, there is no exponential increase in the infections amongst the returnees?

Yes - there probably is. There's exponential community transfer growth in cases in the countries they're coming from, so the % of returnees that are infected will increase roughly in line with the exponential growth in those countries.

I hope we're as ahead of this (ie other countries) as the figures suggest. Fingers crossed.

neb

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#2446284 25-Mar-2020 13:58

Batman:
I am convinced a big reason this pandemic is so bad is due to social media.

Should we start a rumour that the gummint will be shutting down the Internets in order to block the spread of all the false rumours?

Zepanda66

533 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2446285 25-Mar-2020 13:59

Ha someone must have snitched on Dominos lol they just announced on FB theyre closing during the lock down.

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amiga500

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#2446286 25-Mar-2020 14:00

Fred99:

MikeB4:

Lets get real people, it is a quantum leap between the Defence force assisting Police to Martial Law. The NZ army and Navy assisted with Christchurch, Kaikoura and also Napier and this did not mean martial law. I am aware that my comments will now attract the usual sniping but talk of martial law is scare mongering and not at all helpful.

I wouldn't get too wound up with definitions - ie calling it "martial law" or whatever.

The NZ Army more than merely "assisted" after the Chch quakes, they set up and maintained road blocks around red zones, with army trucks and armed soldiers very visible. What was at risk there was property (preventing looting) and preventing complete morons from trying to retrieve their own property in a haphazard manner from buildings that were at risk from collapsing with constant aftershock activity. The level of civil disobedience to something sensible was unbelievable. High profile business people were boasting in the media about how they'd been able to get into their offices to retrieve stuff - that they decided was more "important" than the common good.

There's much more at risk here. Expect to see a very visible army presence.

If the NZ Army is needed for a few weeks people should not get alarmed. Anyone who has visited Paris will know that the army is regularly used to patrol around high profile sites such as the Eiffel Tower & Gare du Nord. They patrol in groups of three & the local residents are totally relaxed about them. They are armed with semi-auto rifles. I saw French kids go up to talk with the guys at the Eiffel Tower. Quite apart from the army, groups of four railway police are often seen on the Metro, they are armed with pistols, batons, tasers, pepper spray, etc! So relax everyone.

tdgeek

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#2446287 25-Mar-2020 14:01

Ge0rge:
freitasm:

205 probable cases in New Zealand now. Six people in hospital - three in Wellington, two in Rotorua, one Waikato.

I've been wondering over the last few days - is this number not a false metric?

The MoH has also said that 22 people have recovered and are clear of Covid-19, so technically we only have 183 cases? Yes, we've had 205, but if we carry on like this the numbers will become meaningless - "NZ has 50,000 cases (well, actually 544, the rest have recovered)"

Surely it should be changed to "active cases", otherwise we are never going to see a decrease in this number - it might stop rising eventually, but it will never drop.

I must be missing something I think.

Agree it gets messy. Total cases less recovered is a nice metric.That's easy. Its a bit meaningless but we can see how many are coming back to health, whuch is good thing. We can see hoiw many new cases, of those how many are imported and already isolated. The BIG number is daily CT count. Thats the only really important number

dogstar001

74 posts

Master Geek

#2446293 25-Mar-2020 14:03

tdgeek:
gchiu:

Is that exponential or flattening?

CT remains at 4.

The rest are due to flights, I see it as matching the increased number of flights, and the much higher risk of those passengers carrying the virus as the country of origin are getting worse. So the daily numbers should be rising, as the source is rising. That source we know, and happily accept, as they are Kiwis returning home. They should all be out of circulation. Alert Level 4 is because of CT, as per Dr Bloomfield. CT has gone from 0 to 1 to 2 and to 4, still 4 today. To contain CT we stay home. And if CT grows, as it will, those that are CT are staying at home. Then they will become symptomatic, but be out of circulation. If almost everyone is out of circulation (as Alert Level 4 provides) that's a barrier that the virus cannot breach. Its hostless. It dies. Thats the plan, its only ever been about CT

I guess the risk is, is that in a 3 person flat. Flatmate 1 who has the virus with only mild symptoms, passes it to flatmate 2 two weeks from now. Flatmate 2 also has mild symptoms & passes it to flatmate 3, 4 weeks from now as the lockdown ends.

Flatmate 3 is a party animal & goes on a post lockdown bender & spreads the the virus all over the place.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2446296 25-Mar-2020 14:07

tdgeek:

Zepanda66:

Did I hear that right? "Defence force expected to use their power where necessary"?

I heard that they are now made available. Not quite the same as expected to be patrolling the streets. That depends how many dimwits flout the alert rules

My guess - "many".

Don't hesitate to report them - they are potential killers - even if too dim-witted or selfish to understand.

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