2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2450353 31-Mar-2020 01:57

Interesting report from 2007 on the results of various ways to deal with a pandemic in 1918. Worst-case handling: slow to respond, lifted the restrictions too early - cities that did exhibited a double peak, once before the lockdown and a second time after it was lifted, followed by a second lockdown - and so on. One telling quote:

The ninth tenet, experiment, could not be demonstrated directly because of the paucity of influenza pandemics in the past century

Looks like they can update that part soon because of the large-scale experiment the US is now running, although unfortunately only at the poor-response end of the scale.

Our study suggests that nonpharmaceutical interventions can play a critical role in mitigating the consequences of future severe influenza pandemics and should be considered for inclusion in contemporary planning efforts [...] The history of US epidemics also cautions that the public’s acceptance of these health measures is enhanced when guided by ethical and humane principles.

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#2450354 31-Mar-2020 02:58

Latest status of research and for further reading: https://www.dzif.de/en/dzif-coronavirus-researchers-use-fast-track

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#2450355 31-Mar-2020 03:10

I'm proud of my company's products. May I?

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Sidestep

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#2450359 31-Mar-2020 04:28

Tinkerisk:

I'm proud of my company's products. May I?

That's very cool!
I think the French have set up a - very similarly fitted - A330 multi-role aircraft for Med-e-vac.

Edit: And a TGV hospital train.

This whole thing will be a real test for Europe - and the whole world
A pandemic/mass casualty drill for a future, far deadlier virus that could sweep the globe with a death rate like Ebola, or Nipah virus.

I'm sure we'll learn from this and in the future have early-warning systems, and be prepared to halt all inbound flights at the first sign of trouble.
The cost to airlines and tourism operators will be small compared to the cost of the world-wide national shut-downs that are happening now.

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#2450362 31-Mar-2020 07:09

Beware the dangers of geek self-isolation.

Astrophysicist hospitalised to remove neodynium magnets from nose after inventing device to stop face touching.

Bung

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#2450367 31-Mar-2020 08:14

neb: Not targeted at anyone in particular, but motivated by a post a few days ago about someone getting into a debate about the rules with a cop and some other followup posts about similar subjects:

This is not a choose-your-own-adventure where you get to invent your own special-snowflake rules just for you. When you get to a red light, you stop and wait for it to go green even when there are no other cars on the road. You don't run the red light and then argue with the cop who pulls you over about the fact that there were no cars there and so there should be a special exception to the rules just for you.

Similarly, in terms of the cop "getting aggressive", that's because he's probably had to deal with an endless stream of snowflakes who all want an exception made just for them because they have some really good reason for not playing by the rules. Yes, you know better and yes he's being unreasonable and yes he's heard that from the last hundred people he's had to stop and is getting really tired of it. Just play by the rules and get over it, even if you know they're wrong and unreasonable and things would be so much better if you were in charge.

This isn't choose your own enforcement either. The rules haven't been clarified yet.

"On Friday, the prime minister announced that people shouls not "drive one or two hours from their home", while police were apparently stopping people from driving a few kilometres." https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/120666760/the-rule-of-law-matters-even-more-during-an-emergency

The commissioner of police has stated that he thinks people should stay local within 5km of their homes. That definition of local doesn't work when the choice of supermarket being discussed was 7km or 9km. Since it hasn't been stated that you have no choice but use the closest supermarket it wouldn't be surprising if the cop was getting push back.

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#2450369 31-Mar-2020 08:34

@Tinkerisk:

I'm proud of my company's products. May I?

That's a great contribution.

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#2450370 31-Mar-2020 08:36

Bung: The commissioner of police has stated that he thinks people should stay local within 5km of their homes. That definition of local doesn't work when the choice of supermarket being discussed was 7km or 9km. Since it hasn't been stated that you have no choice but use the closest supermarket it wouldn't be surprising if the cop was getting push back.

I think it's obvious that if the only available supermarket is 9km then you of course can go there. I don't think this kind of example needs to be stretched to make a point.

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#2450374 31-Mar-2020 08:55

Bung:

This isn't choose your own enforcement either. The rules haven't been clarified yet.

"On Friday, the prime minister announced that people shouls not "drive one or two hours from their home", while police were apparently stopping people from driving a few kilometres." https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/120666760/the-rule-of-law-matters-even-more-during-an-emergency

The commissioner of police has stated that he thinks people should stay local within 5km of their homes. That definition of local doesn't work when the choice of supermarket being discussed was 7km or 9km. Since it hasn't been stated that you have no choice but use the closest supermarket it wouldn't be surprising if the cop was getting push back.

Not surprisingly, the commissioner of police wants rules that are easy to enforce. The less people on the roads, and a fixed distance from home, makes it easier to enforce. Simple rules with no exceptions. And, the Police being an authoritarian organisation, he doesn't want anyone to think for themselves or argue. Do as you're told, and trust the authorities to make the right decisions (and rules) for you.

But the actual requirements for effective containment are different. For example, it would be much better if a group of community resources (supermarket, chemist, GP, petrol station, etc) were not connected to any other group. So if you went to a particular supermarket, there was only one chemist, one GP, one petrol station, etc that you could also go to. That way, any covid-19 outbreak couldn't move from one community to another. If your community was "clean", it would stay clean. But, apart from rural towns where there is only one of each, that isn't practical. Person A will go to supermarket S and chemist C and petrol station P. Person B will go to the same supermarket, but different chemist and petrol station. And there's a pathway from one community to the next.

I suggest that there's an improvement we can make to the rules: always go to the same supermarket, petrol station, chemist, etc. That way, if an outbreak happens, it's much easier to trace.

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#2450376 31-Mar-2020 09:08

So...5km from your home. That's a fairly large area that you're allowed to roam (if you're in the suburbs of a large city, as I am).

Gives you good range and ability to get out without encountering too many people (sans car). It also means a walk or run or ride could be many, many KM if you used the entire area available to you.

But does it really meet the definition of "Stay at Home"?

Maybe if they clarified publicly and absolutely what they mean by "stay at home" there wouldn't be so much argument and vitriol spouted online and in the streets?

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#2450377 31-Mar-2020 09:14

By and large I am not personally seeing any great evidence of so called vitriol against people for violating the rules. People are mostly calling out the obvious and blatant violations/acts of stupidity like people going surfing, taking the car for a long random drive, or shopping in pairs/travelling in pairs when the advisory is to have dedicated shoppers and that travel is for essentials only. I think they've made a calculated choice to allow people some freedom to, for example, choose between local supermarkets and that gives us all a bit more choice/variety in life. By and large I think people are responding sensibly -- let's just hope the idiocies of a few don't take away those little "luxuries".

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#2450383 31-Mar-2020 09:34

https://covid19.govt.nz/help-and-advice/for-everyone/staying-at-home/

From the above:

What does staying at home mean?

The Government has asked all people in New Zealand to stay at home to help stop the spread of COVID-19.

As long as you are not unwell, you can leave your house to:

access essential services, like buying groceries, or going to a bank or pharmacy
go to work if you work for an essential service
go for a walk, or exercise and enjoy nature.

If you do leave your house, you must keep a 2 metre distance from other people at all times. Police may be monitoring people and asking questions of people who are out and about during the Alert Level 4 lockdown to check what they are doing.

Transport

Right now, public transport and domestic air travel is restricted only for medical reasons, to get to the supermarket and for those involved in essential services and freight. Air travel is permitted in some cases for people to leave the country and to get home to self-isolate.

Ferry services, road and rail will still be available for the transport of essential goods.

You can use your own transport means (car, bike etc) when you need to access essential services.

Self-isolation is about staying home and limiting travel. We are asking everyone to limit their movement around the country to help us contain COVID-19.

It's difficult to tell from the above whether or not you are permitted to drive your car a short distance to a park or walking track. However, the PM has said on several occasions that it is OK to do this.

It's also interesting that there are no kilometre numbers specified, such as how far it's acceptable to drive your car from home. I suppose it's assumed that you always go to the nearest supermarket, doctor or park etc.

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#2450386 31-Mar-2020 09:43

frednz:

It's difficult to tell from the above whether or not you are permitted to drive your car a short distance to a park or walking track. However, the PM has said on several occasions that it is OK to do this.

Police said, if its too far to walk, then don't. Staying local isnt driving 7 minutes to a park. Can you link where PM said its ok to drive 7 minutes or so to a park?

I see local as my neighbourhood. I see someone ran a half marathon the other day, that was in their neighbourhood

Whats the real reason you keep going on about this?

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#2450390 31-Mar-2020 09:56

dejadeadnz:

People are mostly calling out the obvious and blatant violations/acts of stupidity like people going surfing, ...

I'm struggling to see the stupidity or violation of going surfing (assuming that it doesn't involve excessive travel to get there). Whilst surfing, you're not going to be within 2m of another person. To me, it falls into the category of enjoying nature. Obviously, there's no surf rescue service, but I believe that many surfers accept that risk all the time, surfing at beaches where it isn't available anyway. IANA surfer, BTW.

Equally, throwing frisbees at a park was labelled by Ashley Bloomfield as stupid. I don't see that... so long as the frisbee is only handled by people in your own bubble, I don't see it as more risky than walking in the park. I don't own a frisbee, BTW.

There seems to be a lowest common denominator approach, where people are being demonized for having fun, even though the activity doesn't risk spreading the virus. We're all supposed to be miserable together.

dejadeadnz

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#2450391 31-Mar-2020 09:56

Some people just seem determined to create issues when there are none. The official website clearly delivers a message to stay within your neighbourhood (e.g. "limiting travel") and to go out only to exercise, to attend to your essential work, or to shop for essentials. If there's a park within walking distance, just walk there and go no further if park-based exercise is what you want you want. Otherwise, just walk within your neighbourhood. No one is expecting anyone to lug 20 bags on their person, so you can drive to your local supermarket. Just don't try defining one 10kms down the road as local when you have two that are closer etc or because the one 10kms down the road sells more organic food and apparently only organic food is nutritious, as some previous poster(s) in this thread seem to believe.

Just understand the purpose of the rules and abide by both their words and spirit. The police and public aren't generally going around making your life more difficult -- there will be grey areas but if you aren't obviously taking the mickey, you won't run into significant issues.

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