2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2456561 7-Apr-2020 16:37

MikeB4:
Makes me wonder how many in the British Parliament are infected. The UK could be in for a major political and constitutional crisis all the way up to the Head of State.

I think the US needs this clearing out a lot more than the UK does. At some point they'll run out of old conservative wealthy white guys and be able to get people who'll get things done into Congress.

neb

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#2456563 7-Apr-2020 16:40

PolicyGuy:
Statistically, what are Boris Johnson's survival chances now he's in ICU? 50/50? Better? Worse?

As of about a week ago, ICU/critical means you have a 2/3 chance of not surviving. Not sure what the current figures are.

OTOH in his case you can bet he'll get the best of the best of the best care possible. No NHS for him.

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#2456567 7-Apr-2020 16:49

neb:
PolicyGuy:

Statistically, what are Boris Johnson's survival chances now he's in ICU? 50/50? Better? Worse?

As of about a week ago, ICU/critical means you have a 2/3 chance of not surviving. Not sure what the current figures are. OTOH in his case you can bet he'll get the best of the best of the best care possible. No NHS for him.

He's in St Thomas' Hospital in London. Its a NHS hospital and a teaching hospital at that.

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#2456570 7-Apr-2020 16:54

alexx:
Some of the best graphs I have seen are the ones from the Financial Times and posted on twitter by John Burn-Murdoch.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch

Most of the graphs are available here (free access for these pages):
https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

For people who didn't follow the link in the original post, I've quoted it above for a second chance, definitely worth looking at, that's some of the best graphical displays of the data I've seen. You can see the difference in the visual presentation of information when it's done by trained data analysts vs. some other sites which seem to be people playing with animated graphics.

Fred99

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#2456577 7-Apr-2020 17:06

neb:
PolicyGuy:

Statistically, what are Boris Johnson's survival chances now he's in ICU? 50/50? Better? Worse?

As of about a week ago, ICU/critical means you have a 2/3 chance of not surviving. Not sure what the current figures are. OTOH in his case you can bet he'll get the best of the best of the best care possible. No NHS for him.

No. It's grim but not that grim.

I think about half in ICU are on mechanical ventilation, and about 1/2 on ventilators survive (next step ECMO has very poor survival).

We've been told that Boris is not on a ventilator but is getting oxygen, but they're not disclosing other issues. He'll probably be okay - but it's serious. There are a lot of possible complications, cardiac, renal as well as secondary infections.

neb

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#2456578 7-Apr-2020 17:07

neb: Interesting reading for those who can read German, the German government's risk analysis for nation-scale threats, including a pandemic. The specific threat scenario for a pandemic starts on page 55.

I wonder how long it'll take for the conspiracy nuts to latch onto this: It talks about a virus that originates at a wet market in Asia in January and hits Europe in April, and continues on from there. Amazing that the Robert Koch Institute, roughly the German equivalent of the CDC, already knew about this in 2012. It has to be a conspiracy, but now the Germans are in on it too! I always knew Merkel was a lizard under that mask.

From further reading: Incubation time of three to five days, but up to 14 days, 10% mortality rate but it varies by age, the young are barely affected while the old (over 65) are heavily hit, I'm really surprised that this hasn't ended up in the conspiracy-nutters sights yet, it's scarily on-target for something written eight years ago.

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#2456579 7-Apr-2020 17:08

does anyone know if any of the "PROBABALE" cases eventually get confirmed or refuted? if so what are the numbers?

or do they remain "probable" till the end of time?

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#2456581 7-Apr-2020 17:13

What happened with the guy found in a Motel? Are they awaiting tests to see his COD?

Fred99

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#2456583 7-Apr-2020 17:19

networkn:

What happened with the guy found in a Motel? Are they awaiting tests to see his COD?

Might have to wait for the coroner. He could have even had C-19 - but that not the COD, so possibly some legal/ethical issue if MoH was to presume C-19 was the COD.

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#2456591 7-Apr-2020 17:36

freitasm:

And here we go: "Mr. Trump himself has a small personal financial interest in Sanofi, the French drugmaker that makes Plaquenil, the brand-name version of hydroxychloroquine." https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/06/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-malaria-drug.html

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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#2456595 7-Apr-2020 17:38

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#2456596 7-Apr-2020 17:40

This is all looking pretty encouraging? The lock-down seems to be limited opportunities for community transmission so maybe we'll be in a position to return to something approaching normality soon?

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#2456602 7-Apr-2020 17:50

GV27:

This is all looking pretty encouraging? The lock-down seems to be limited opportunities for community transmission so maybe we'll be in a position to return to something approaching normality soon?

The problem is ending too soon, because if we do, before the chance to eradicate it, we could then go back to a similar position we were with cases prior to the lockdown. How many level 4 lockdowns do we want? Some countries are going to be in lockdown for many months. I am a bit sick of the media keeping on asking the question when it will end, and even if it will end before 4 weeks. We aren't even 2 weeks in yet, and aren't doing the amount number of testing that other countries are doing yet. They did even say that i is possible that people do have it but haven't yet been detected. I don't think it is going to be gone after the 4 weeks, but would love to be proven wrong. I would think that even in a bubble (possibly a larger bubble), if it spreads from one person to another, then another , slowly, then some bubbles may still have it after 4 weeks. We have to remember that this is essentially a war situation against the virus, hence why it is a state of emergency.

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#2456604 7-Apr-2020 17:53

We need to hit the lockdown breaching idiots hard - like Australia

LOL @ the idiot who's now remanded in custody.

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#2456608 7-Apr-2020 18:02

freitasm: How does NZ’s Covid-19 response stack up?

Good comparison of New Zealand current status vs comparable countries.

@freitasm:

Have posted a comparison with other southern hemisphere countries in the data & analysis thread (#2456584). See second plot in particular. On a per capita basis Australia seems to be out performing us by several days at least.

Unlike in Australia, it is not clear yet that our drop in cases over the last two days will be sustained. We had a very similar drop in daily cases between 20 & 31 March that was not sustained.

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