2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2464970 18-Apr-2020 17:04

Ge0rge: @dejadeadnz , your expert opinion please, if you wouldn't mind.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121036470/coronavirus-police-order-hone-harawiras-covid19-checkpoints-to-run-correctly

Let's ignore the irony of exposing bubbles by handing out flyers, talking through open car windows etc, if indeed that is the case.

I can understand what they are trying to achieve, however if was my understanding that it was illegal for the average person to set up a roadblock on a public road and prevent people from travelling along it.

If, and it's a big if, I am correct in that assumption, surely the Police "ordering it to be run correctly" (and what that does entail isn't disclosed) are then the Police not giving support and setting precedent to what is an illegal activity?

I doubt there's a legal basis for those roadblocks. That being said, even if they are a bit misguided, they are nonetheless well-meaning. The police probably have greater things to be bothered about and since they may have limited resources, they perhaps view these as a mild helping hand and have decided to let them continue provided they don't keep leaning into people's cars and keep the right distances etc. I am not too bothered by this one way or another.

msukiwi

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#2464972 18-Apr-2020 17:09

mattwnz: But you would expect their website to be able to cope if they aren't going to do a media conference. .

Hmm... the Geonet site repeatedly "crashed" during the Christchurch earthquakes etc.

The Met Service site "crashes" during any major weather event.

Shall I go on? (IRD etc)

Why should health be any different?

frankv

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#2464973 18-Apr-2020 17:11

Scott3:
They have messed up their response to ebola: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5394645/

Working through your justification of "minimal WHO credibility" one by one.

The above paper doesn't say anything about the credibility of the WHO. It does say, as much based on WHO reports as anything else, that the response to the Ebola outbreak was poor. It also identified the causes as excessive expectations of WHO and underfunding. I.e. people expected WHO to do things it wasn't equipped or able to do. As a consequence, WHO's reputation was harmed. But that's quite different from credibility.

Batman

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#2464974 18-Apr-2020 17:15

frankv:
Scott3:

They have messed up their response to ebola: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5394645/

Working through your justification of "minimal WHO credibility" one by one.

The above paper doesn't say anything about the credibility of the WHO. It does say, as much based on WHO reports as anything else, that the response to the Ebola outbreak was poor. It also identified the causes as excessive expectations of WHO and underfunding. I.e. people expected WHO to do things it wasn't equipped or able to do. As a consequence, WHO's reputation was harmed. But that's quite different from credibility.

I think credibility is the wrong word, implies issue with integrity (though that may be challenged by some but not all, inc CNN and SkyNews AU) - but series of repeated failures/poor advice according to this, causing people to lose trust

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/why-world-health-organization-failed/610063/

frankv

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#2464980 18-Apr-2020 17:40

Batman:
frankv:
Working through your justification of "minimal WHO credibility" one by one.
I think credibility is the wrong word, implies issue with integrity (though that may be challenged by some but not all, inc CNN and SkyNews AU) - but series of repeated failures/poor advice according to this, causing people to lose trust

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/why-world-health-organization-failed/610063/

Good article. The word I have difficulty with is "minimal". Whilst there's no doubt that WHO could have done much better than it did, I think that there's also no doubt that things would be *much* worse if there were no WHO at all.

Oblivian

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#2464983 18-Apr-2020 17:48

mattwnz: It appears to have been everyday for the last month including weekends. They do rotate staff.
But you would expect their website to be able to cope if they aren't going to do a media conference. .

You left out the 2nd portion of my comment. The need for public address.
First Saturday was the level announcement. The 2nd was the first weekend plea after starting it the wed prior.

Apr 4th was the health act change.
Last week was deaths.

In short. Just because we don't have one, doesnt mean they are planning stuff like insinuated/conclusions the less upbeat are jumping to.

Technofreak

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#2464985 18-Apr-2020 17:53

dejadeadnz:

The media hasn't done a good job in holding people to account for some of those less blatantly dickish but yet nonetheless completely avoidable contribution to the COVID-19-related suffering. I am talking about the idiots who gathered for St Patricks celebrations in the Matamata cluster, the idiotic couple who went ahead with the wedding in Bluff when all authorities were calling for the minimisation of gatherings, and the idiotic organisers of that stupid cattle conference in Queenstown as examples. No doubt there are others/

For anyone tempted to retort "But they weren't breaking the law at the time!", consider this: the law is a floor and not a ceiling. Truly others-regarding, sensible and moral individuals should have (and ought to have) cancelled those unnecessary gatherings. It's easy to resort to platitudes like "The disease doesn't discriminate!" -- it doesn't but the world also could do with less people enthusiastically helping it along.

Dicks.

I'm sorry I don't get your logic. These are just three events out of several hundred other similar events that were taking place at that time, yet you want to just call out the events that clusters have resulted from.

I get the impression that unless some conforms to your idea of right and wrong they are an idiot or dickhead.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. At the time these events took place there wasn't the general awareness within the community of how infectious Covid-19 is and we were still at Level 1. I doubt very much any of those organisers with the benefit of hindsight would have continued with those events. To suggest they should be singled out and held to account is in my opinion grossly unfair.

All these events took place while we were in level 1. I don't know about you but so far as I was was concerned things were still relatively normal then.

Here are the level 1 restrictions from the Covid 19 website.

Border entry measures to minimise risk of importing COVID-19 cases.
Intensive testing for COVID-19.
Rapid contact tracing of any positive case.
Self-isolation and quarantine required.
Schools and workplaces open, and must operate safely.
Physical distancing encouraged.
No restrictions on gatherings.
Stay home if you’re sick, report flu-like symptoms.
Wash and dry hands, cough into elbow, don’t touch your face.
No restrictions on domestic transport – avoid public transport or travel if sick.

We didn't go to Level 2 until March 21st.

Can you honestly say that if you were the organiser of any of those events that you would have cancelled them based on the Level 1 restrictions? I doubt very few people would have.

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iamaelephant

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#2464988 18-Apr-2020 18:03

Technofreak:

Can you honestly say that if you were the organiser of any of those events that you would have cancelled them based on the Level 1 restrictions? I doubt very few people would have.

I can confidently tell you I would have. I advised a friend of mine to cancel his wedding back in early March. In this comment on March 9 I was critical (and subsequently downvoted out of the conversation) of the Newtown Festival going ahead. For those of us who have been paying attention it was plainly obvious by the start of March that mass gatherings should have been put on hold. Let's not lose perspective here: the Bluff wedding went ahead on March 21(!!!) and the Cattle Conference on March 9-13. This is well past the time when it was absolutely clear that such events should not have gone forward.

The government dragging their feet on the Covid response is no excuse. The government shouldn't have to tell you not to hold events under such circumstances. You should engage your damn brain. In particular the Bluff wedding idiots - as far as I'm concerned the bride and groom belong in prison, as well as the moron who flew in without isolating and spread the actual virus.

gzt

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#2465001 18-Apr-2020 18:11

Scott3:
freitasm: To be clear, do you have a source you can quote on the WHO credibility?
Ah, Tricky... I can quote heaps of media article, but in a normally a UN organisation such as the WHO should be more credible that the media. Normally we would also expect statements from the leader of the most powerful country in the world to be credible too. But here I am shaking my head...
Some of the below are admittedly lower tier media organisations.

Some of these links are misleading. For example the first link saying HK people do not trust stats information from WHO about China because it is provided by China. Any UN body must trust member states, if NZ says we have 101% literacy or whatever, then that is what UN will report. At least one link is just a strident opinion piece.

Tedros has acted in line with the evidence available. Individual member states are free to make their own decisions based on their own information.

To a large extent Tedros is a skilled diplomat, a large part of his job is keeping member states on side with the benefits of international health co-operation.

freitasm

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#2465008 18-Apr-2020 18:15

gzt:

Some of these links are misleading. For example the first link saying HK people do not trust stats information from WHO about China because it is provided by China. Any UN body must trust member states, if NZ says we have 101% literacy or whatever, then that is what UN will report. At least one link is just a strident opinion piece.

Tedros has acted in line with the evidence available. Individual member states are free to make their own decisions based on their own information.

To a large extent Tedros is a skilled diplomat, a large part of his job is keeping member states on side with the benefits of international health co-operation.

And a few of the links are of institutions that I'd think twice before believing.

freitasm

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#2465009 18-Apr-2020 18:16

Coronavirus: Double warning over antibody tests.

The UK has placed antibody tests - which check if someone has had Covid-19 - at the centre of an eventual "back-to-work" plan to restart normal life.

But experts said they may not prove if someone is protected from reinfection.

The UK's testing co-ordinator has also warned people not to buy private tests.

The government has already paid for three-and-a-half million antibody tests, but has not yet found one that is reliable enough to use - and stresses that it will not approve the use of any test until it can be sure its findings can be fully depended on.

Professor John Newton said the public should not purchase unapproved antibody tests until a working test is approved.

"We are breaking new ground with this work every day and I am confident this major research effort will make a breakthrough," he said of efforts to develop a valid serology test, which measures levels of antibodies in blood plasma.

"Until then, please don't buy or take any unproven tests. They may not be reliable for your intended use; they may give a false reading and put you, your family or others at risk."

mattwnz

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#2465011 18-Apr-2020 18:23

iamaelephant:

The government dragging their feet on the Covid response is no excuse. The government shouldn't have to tell you not to hold events under such circumstances. You should engage your damn brain.

Unfortunately many in NZ people have to be told what they have to do, and what they can't do. They don't follow common sense, or follow a more safe and cautious approach if they don't have to. They also don't follow what was going on in the world with how this virus was spreading, because a lot of people seem to think these things could never happen in NZ, and NZ is different. As I posted previously, that same weekend, a large property down the road from where I live held a big birthday party, and this was held in a marquee in a garden, and was a catered sit down event. Everyone I spoke to about it said it shouldn't be happening, but it was allowed, because at that stage you could have gatherings up to 500 outside, or 100 inside. If it had been cancelled it would have cost a lot of people a lot of money, and people wouldn't want to lose thousands of dollars for being over cautious, especially if they think they can manage it by making sure people who come to the event aren't sick or have a temperature. But there was nothing anyone could do to stop them doing it. Luckily I don't think it resulted in any spread or cluster, based on what has happened since, although I don't know where the clusters under 10 have occurred. .

Tinkerisk

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#2465022 18-Apr-2020 18:38

mattwnz:

Unfortunately many in NZ people have to be told what they have to do, and what they can't do. They don't follow common sense, or follow a more safe and cautious approach if they don't have to. They also don't follow what was going on in the world with how this virus was spreading, because a lot of people seem to think these things could never happen in NZ, and NZ is different.

Sobering. The thought that you are eradicating the virus is surely seductive and probably doable. Nevertheless, you are prisoners in your own country and you have to remain on alert and act at lightning speed in the event of outbreaks. This is the case at least until there will be a vaccine. Herd immunization surely cannot be achieved.

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mattwnz

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#2465027 18-Apr-2020 18:56

Tinkerisk:

Sobering. The thought that you are eradicating the virus is surely seductive and probably doable. Nevertheless, you are prisoners in your own country and you have to remain on alert and act at lightning speed in the event of outbreaks. This is the case at least until there will be a vaccine. Herd immunization surely cannot be achieved.

I am trying to think positive, and that we can do it. But we need to plug the holes and not relax things too much , such as opening schools too early where it is impossible to keep kids apart from one another. IMO it needs things like fines, like they are doing in Australia. The fact that someone who tested positive and went to the supermarket, potentially infecting other people, and only getting a warning IMO wasn't tough enough. $1k fines are also like a wet bus ticket, it needs to be $10k -$30k which I believe it is in some states in Oz . I think it has been proven that we only need a few people not doing the right thing, and it can ruin it for everyone.

gzt

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#2465029 18-Apr-2020 19:08

Batman: I think credibility is the wrong word, implies issue with integrity (though that may be challenged by some but not all, inc CNN and SkyNews AU) - but series of repeated failures/poor advice according to this, causing people to lose trust
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/why-world-health-organization-failed/610063/

This article is somewhat a hypothetical opinion piece and is mostly hindsight. That's not necessarily a bad thing. Hindsight is useful. Lessons from this outbreak will need to be applied. Imo there is some confusion of the masks issue and in what scenarios they are effective. I have no doubt increased stocks of PPE and readiness to run diagnostic tests at scale will be first on the list for improved pandemic response in all countries.

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