Paul1977: So, what are peoples predictions on whether we’ll go to level 3 at 11:59pm Wednesday?

I think if the goal is elimination then we aren’t at a point where it’s safe to lower restrictions.

Surely we need to be at a point where the only new cases are within fully isolated bubbles before it’s safe to lower the level.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325831

This is the view of Martin Berka, Professor of Macroeconomics, Head of School of Economics and Finance at Massey University:

I think a strong economic and humane case can be made to relax the rules to level 3 at the end of the current four-week level 4 lockdown, starting from next Thursday.

International epidemiological policy models of Covid-19 predict that countries will go through cycles of easing and tightening restrictions.

It is practically impossible to eliminate Covid-19 in the short term without major social upheaval caused by an economic depression. Level 4 is no longer an optimal policy because it ignores the livelihoods of almost the entire New Zealand population. Nobody is suggesting to open up the economy completely, but I argue that level 3 restrictions are strict enough to protect lives, while also helping people recover their livelihoods.

New Zealand's level 3 rules are more stringent than Singapore, Hong Kong or South Korea, and could still cause an unprecedented recession. New Zealand shouldn't return to level 4 unless there's a threat of our health system being overrun.