2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2465923 20-Apr-2020 11:01

Batman:

the virus model who advises the country says extend at least another 2 weeks https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/lockdown-should-be-extended-two-weeks-virus-tracker

In which case it "could" eliminate the virus. What if he is wrong? It would be very impressive to spend just more 14 days and its gone from NZ, thats impressive. Sounds easy. He is 100% correct that L4 will eliminate the virus, its just depends how long.

Fred99

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#2465927 20-Apr-2020 11:07

freitasm:

People keep talking about herd immunity but there seems to be no hard evidence either way.

But there's some reasonably simple maths that shows how deluded and dangerous the "herd immunity" concept would be if implemented as a policy.

FineWine

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#2465929 20-Apr-2020 11:07

IF we were seeing herd immunity would we not be seeing positive and accurate blood serology ?

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Fred99

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#2465932 20-Apr-2020 11:12

FineWine:

IF we were seeing herd immunity would we not be seeing positive and accurate blood serology ?

Only if the serological test had specificity much greater than the number of truly seropositive people in the community being tested.
So far it's been BS and wishful thinking, bad studies, bad "not fit for purpose" test kits.

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#2465939 20-Apr-2020 11:16

Fred99:

freitasm:

People keep talking about herd immunity but there seems to be no hard evidence either way.

But there's some reasonably simple maths that shows how deluded and dangerous the "herd immunity" concept would be if implemented as a policy.

Despite the above some countries are betting on it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/121121604/coronavirus-parts-of-sweden-hope-to-achieve-herd-immunity-for-covid19-next-month

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#2465943 20-Apr-2020 11:21

kingdragonfly:

The "mysterious illness" reports are from low quality sources. Based on reports from better sources, it sounds like Karachi and Indus Hospital just this week has recognized Covid-19. So that's probably the "mysterious illness"

The original sources are extremely low quality: "‘Mysterious Disease’ Deaths in Karachi"

This is not the place to discuss it. If you'd like, you may create a new thread.

The African continent is going to be or already is THE scary place. We are never going to get accurate information from there (apart maybe Sth Africa) due to; poor medical services, poor lab's, political avarice, political instability, cultural norms and memes and traditions and access.

It is just a hot bed of virus's that continent. Bill Gates will have his work cut out for him there.

I do not think a new thread is necessary. Though it will be a huge problem, it will still be a foot note in world history just as it is/was with measles, Ebola, cholera etc. If smallpox comes back this is where it will start. We, the rest of the world pushes it to the back of our minds. The Victorians didn't call it the 'Darkest Continent' for nothing

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Fred99

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#2465957 20-Apr-2020 11:34

Scott3:

Despite the above some countries are betting on it.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/121121604/coronavirus-parts-of-sweden-hope-to-achieve-herd-immunity-for-covid19-next-month

Yeah:

"According to our modellers, we are starting to see so many immune people in the population in Stockholm that it is starting to have an effect on the spread of the infection," he said.

I don't believe it. I've seen a figure of 10% immunity stated by epidemiologists as needed to have a significant herd immunity effect. That would be say 100,000 cases for Stockholm just to start to show a herd effect - they've only got 14,500 confirmed cases for the entire country.

It's heavily politicised. I think Sweden has made a grave mistake - they've got about 100x more deaths per capita than NZ/Aus - and despite far less restrictive lockdowns - they certainly do not have "business as usual". There's nothing quite like the fear of death when their death toll is rising the way it is to incite a bit of a change of personal behaviour - even if you're "allowed to" do stupid things.

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#2465964 20-Apr-2020 11:42

FineWine: The African continent is going to be or already is THE scary place. We are never going to get accurate information from there (apart maybe Sth Africa) due to; poor medical services, poor lab's, political avarice, political instability, cultural norms and memes and traditions and access.

I agree.

I think Central Asia the "*stan" countries are going to be a disease repository for some years: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan.

freitasm

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#2466008 20-Apr-2020 11:51

From The Guardian: "Anger in Sweden as elderly pay price for coronavirus strategy"

Now people are realising that "oh, wait. We are letting our relatives die so we can live. But I am not ok with that."

Last week, as figures released by the Public Health Agency of Sweden indicated that 1,333 people had now died of coronavirus, the country’s normally unflappable state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell admitted that the situation in care homes was worrying.

“This is our big problem area,” said Tegnell, the brains behind the government’s relatively light-touch strategy, which has seen it ask, rather than order, people to avoid non-essential travel, work from home and stay indoors if they are over 70 or are feeling ill.

“The worst thing is that it is us, the staff, who are taking the infection in to the elderly,” complained one nurse to Swedish public broadcaster SVT. “It’s unbelievable that more of them haven’t been infected. It’s a scandal.”

Tegnell’s colleague AnnaSara Carnahan on Friday told Sveriges Radio that the number of deaths reported from old people’s homes was “probably an underestimate”, as regional health infectious diseases units were reporting that many elderly who died were not being tested.

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#2466011 20-Apr-2020 11:54

freitasm:

From The Guardian: "Anger in Sweden as elderly pay price for coronavirus strategy"

Now people are realising that "oh, wait. We are letting our relatives die so we can live. But I am not ok with that."

Sideface

ezbee

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#2466021 20-Apr-2020 12:14

There is a price for Sweden, 13K cases, 606 new , 1,511 Dead to date, 111 Dead on one day, 1,054 serious and critical.

( Worldmeter numbers , yours may vary a bit but story the same )

Sweden is betting on the Swedish people , but not without great concern.
Also betting on well resourced public health system, social welfare , a high standard of living.
People are not gathering to spread covid19 , patterns of behavior have changed. So average Swede is not buying into the herd ?

Google mobility shows retail and recreation is -41%
Grocery and Pharmacy -15%
Transit Stations -36%
Workplaces -24%
Parks +84% ( We could have done more with more relaxed park beach rules but maybe we don't trust ourselves ? )

Things that are the same is they have closed High Schools and Universities.
Though for gatherings you can have up to 50 , the nature of Swedish people may mean more caution around this ?
Where in NZ we are more like , ok regulation says legal highs are legal, therefore they must be safe lets max out on them !

You still have to beat it before your Healthcare runs out of staff and PPE , almost no country has enough PPE , many concerned how to make it through next few months.

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#2466022 20-Apr-2020 12:16

freitasm:

From The Guardian: "Anger in Sweden as elderly pay price for coronavirus strategy"

Now people are realising that "oh, wait. We are letting our relatives die so we can live. But I am not ok with that."

Actually, I think it is "We are letting our relatives die so that we can get a new car next year."

DS248

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#2466037 20-Apr-2020 12:27

An issue relevant to elimination of local cases is that it appears the incubation period may be more than 14 days in some cases; eg. from https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3080434/hong-kong-records-four-new-coronavirus-cases

"... one patient, a 20-year-old student, only developed a headache after she had been quarantined in a hotel for 14 days, meaning she had an incubation period of more than three weeks, a week more than most health experts had expected.

But the communicable disease expert added: “We have had more than 1,000 cases so far. So it is foreseeable that some cases might have a longer incubation period.”

Chuang said the woman was more likely to be an imported case, albeit listed as “possibly local” because she had been outside after her quarantine period had expired."

Over 10% of cases in HK are classified as “possibly local”. It is not fully clear what the definition of “possibly local” is but from the 10 or so case histories I read all had been overseas and in all but possibly one case (a cargo plane pilot), were not confirmed positive until more than 14 days after returning. About half though appear to have developed some symptoms before the 14 days was up. Still leaves about half who only developed symptoms more than 14 days after returning, or were asymptomatic on testing. I assume they classify these cases as “possibly local” as it cannot be guaranteed infection did not occur post-quarantine. Seems likely at least some of those cases are imported. Some had been only 2 - 3 days out of quarantine when confirmed positive. If my recollection is correct, all the cases I read tested positive within 3 weeks of returning (but as noted, I only read the details for ~10 cases)

It seems therefore that if the quarantine period for people returning to NZ remains at 14 days (as it is in most countries), we can expect continuing 'un-quarantined' cases and consequent possible local spread after dropping to L2, regardless of how effective L4 and L3 are.

Zepanda66

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#2466054 20-Apr-2020 12:36

tv1 are still broadcasting something at 1pm even tho there's supposedly no conference today? Anyone know what it is? Are just gonna go over the MoH written media release?

http://www.speedtest.net/result/7315955530.png

tdgeek

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#2466059 20-Apr-2020 12:43

I can see what will happen at 4pm. No matter what happens there will be screaming. For every decision they can make, it will be wrong

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