2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2474099 30-Apr-2020 14:30

tdgeek:

Technofreak:

To make my point, our borders are not closed to animals however we have animals, like pet dogs, livestock etc go into quarantine before their owner can take them home.

Where do the 60 flights a day go? All neee to be quarantined as they are now

Bit of a moot point really. With the borders closed to all but New Zealanders and New Zealand residents there wouldn't be 60 flights (or what ever the actual number was) a day. There isn't very many flights per day now and they're mostly carrying freight.

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#2474104 30-Apr-2020 14:35

I wonder if the people calling for a totally closed border ever travel?

How would you like to be stuck in Spain for instance after your country says you can't come home & it could be for a year.
How about it's just you travelling for work & your family is here.
What would happen if you're busy transiting somewhere & suddenly NZ closes, & you're stuck because that country won't let you stay.

kobiak

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#2474106 30-Apr-2020 14:39

Technofreak:

kobiak:

@Technofreak I was all for quarantine all arrivals end of february/early march until I start counting. Even if we ban all people in short term/work visas you'll have thouthands of people arriving initially per day and for best results you'll need to keep them strictly separated from any other group of people for at least 14 days.

Is that easily done with the standard anything but camping? Government struggled to accommodate and service 3000 people as of today's quarantine. People that arrived in NZ are not military, they have needs, special facilities, etc.

So was that a possibility? Yes.
Was it feasible to do? Sounds like nope.

Yes initially there would have been a large number of New Zealanders returning. That could have been managed by having something like an amnesty where those returning before certain date would only have to self isolate but after that date the only option was quarantine. In the meantime the border is closed to all but New Zealanders and New Zealand residents with the commitment to revise who else can arrive and under what requirements they have to meet once we see how the events unfold.

Your point about the government struggling to accommodate and service 3000 people kind of illustrates my point about us having to be equipped to look after our population in the event of a natural disaster. It looks to me that we aren't even ready for something like that where it is conceivable we could need to temporarily house many thousands of people.

It doesn't matter whether those that are returning are military or not. If a tent village run by the army is what it takes to protect the rest of the population then that's what it is. Those that have special needs can be accommodated as required.

Compulsory quarantine is different to an event of disaster, while which you can move people around and don't need to isolate affected in order to accommodate. I don't remember but during ChCh earthquake - how did government respond, was there enough shelter for all of these effected?

and there's only 5000 army in NZ... would they be able to coupe with let's say 30k people initially arriving within first 2 weeks?

and as I said. I agreed to quarantine all arrivals as soon as Feb/March but that was not feasible, so was not done sooner. when number of arrivals was within accommodating requirements - it was enforced. simple as that.

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ezbee

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#2474110 30-Apr-2020 14:45

tdgeek

'If NZ was that shockingly poor, how did the rest of the world go ? '

Well I did say to a point, the professor seemed not to have put up his hand forcefully or publicly when we needed it to go sooner.

True USA is such a horror that the numbers lose meaning and they have yet to take the long grind down the other side of this.
Um ok yesterdays number bumped up again to 2,390, that peak maybe its not passed ?
Early on people there may have avoided avoided testing , due to bills , the medical system being what it is there.
( Lucky you have health insurance you only have to pay $5K for your $10K test was one example )

UK thank goodness we did not have that parliament , once again its still much pain to come down the other side to come too.
Businesses will die from many cuts over a long extended period there no matter lesser trade restrictions.

Italy and Spain, good news is for them only 300 or 400 deaths a day every day.

Just the enormity of having to think of what do you do if you run out of freezer space , gravesites , crematoria.
Do you have to force meat processors to work in unsafe conditions so you can feed your population !

Yes I do understand how tough it was for Jacinda Adern, Winston Peters, and all the cabinet who voted to go, when we did, as hard as we did. How hard this was at that time against very powerful forces local and global that did not want boarder restrictions or lockdowns anytime.

I am also thankful that 'some' of our wealthiest put their resources for the good of all of us.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12323807

Plus all the not so wealthy , like the people who thought they had a good chance of risking their lives in healthcare.
Our charities dealing with a tidal wave of need that continues and will grow for some time to come.

The way the curve bent , continued to bend then the long tail , they all , we all did a bloody good job overall.

We don't know how lucky we are. We should , Maybe we do.

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#2474114 30-Apr-2020 14:51

Technofreak:

Bit of a moot point really. With the borders closed to all but New Zealanders and New Zealand residents there wouldn't be 60 flights (or what ever the actual number was) a day. There isn't very many flights per day now and they're mostly carrying freight.

In the period right up to the first border closure, there were 60 a day, just to AKL. I didnt count WLG or CHC or QTN. The flights were plenty rushing back. Yes some freight but if we say that every flighht to the other 3 centres equaled freight that's still a 60 a day. That started dropping off but its didnt cease just like that, took while. Its hard to imagine a tent city in NZ. We did that when hotels were empty, so it worked out ok.

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#2474118 30-Apr-2020 14:55

ezbee:

tdgeek

'If NZ was that shockingly poor, how did the rest of the world go ? '

Well I did say to a point, the professor seemed not to have put up his hand forcefully or publicly when we needed it to go sooner.

True USA is such a horror that the numbers lose meaning and they have yet to take the long grind down the other side of this.
Um ok yesterdays number bumped up again to 2,390, that peak maybe its not passed ?
Early on people there may have avoided avoided testing , due to bills , the medical system being what it is there.
( Lucky you have health insurance you only have to pay $5K for your $10K test was one example )

UK thank goodness we did not have that parliament , once again its still much pain to come down the other side to come too.
Businesses will die from many cuts over a long extended period there no matter lesser trade restrictions.

Italy and Spain, good news is for them only 300 or 400 deaths a day every day.

Just the enormity of having to think of what do you do if you run out of freezer space , gravesites , crematoria.
Do you have to force meat processors to work in unsafe conditions so you can feed your population !

Yes I do understand how tough it was for Jacinda Adern, Winston Peters, and all the cabinet who voted to go, when we did, as hard as we did. How hard this was at that time against very powerful forces local and global that did not want boarder restrictions or lockdowns anytime.

I am also thankful that 'some' of our wealthiest put their resources for the good of all of us.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12323807

Plus all the not so wealthy , like the people who thought they had a good chance of risking their lives in healthcare.
Our charities dealing with a tidal wave of need that continues and will grow for some time to come.

The way the curve bent , continued to bend then the long tail , they all , we all did a bloody good job overall.

We don't know how lucky we are. We should , Maybe we do.

My point was if NZ did bad and the rest of the world did bad, its a world issue so why call out NZ

Yes, if you line up NZ to the world, we did well, so why did that "expert" call us out?

Makes no sense to me

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Technofreak

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#2474124 30-Apr-2020 15:01

kobiak:

Compulsory quarantine is different to an event of disaster, while which you can move people around and don't need to isolate affected in order to accommodate. I don't remember but during ChCh earthquake - how did government respond, was there enough shelter for all of these effected?

and there's only 5000 army in NZ... would they be able to coupe with let's say 30k people initially arriving within first 2 weeks?

and as I said. I agreed to quarantine all arrivals as soon as Feb/March but that was not feasible, so was not done sooner. when number of arrivals was within accommodating requirements - it was enforced. simple as that.

Where do you get 30,000 in two weeks from? Remember the border would be closed to all but returning New Zealanders. There would/should be no inbound non New Zealand passengers.

If that number is New Zealanders it seems to be a high number to me. Let's accept that it is 30,000 New Zealanders. I would imagine a two week amnesty period to be acceptable therefore these people would not have needed to be accommodated. They would have self isolated.

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ezbee

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#2474129 30-Apr-2020 15:19

tdgeek

" My point was if NZ did bad and the rest of the world did bad, its a world issue so why call out NZ
Yes, if you line up NZ to the world, we did well, so why did that "expert" call us out?
Makes no sense to me "

Yep good point.

Early Feb well I guess Taiwan would have been on its own , no one listens to them, Japan and Olympics were all go.

Opposition here were not screaming to move faster , quite the opposite , well as opposite as you could get and still so.
These are lessons for the future , but improper to use as judgement on those who had to make decisions with what they had.

A bit early for this now, we still have a long fight, silent cases that could be hiding in those fast food crowds.

I really hoped my fellow citizens would have been more responsible.
Can't see us opening shopping malls under 1 in one out ( As some want ) with this carry on.

The crowds pretty much argue against immediate drop to level 2 , let alone the 2 cases we are tracing.

Technofreak

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#2474132 30-Apr-2020 15:22

tdgeek:

Technofreak:

Bit of a moot point really. With the borders closed to all but New Zealanders and New Zealand residents there wouldn't be 60 flights (or what ever the actual number was) a day. There isn't very many flights per day now and they're mostly carrying freight.

In the period right up to the first border closure, there were 60 a day, just to AKL. I didnt count WLG or CHC or QTN. The flights were plenty rushing back. Yes some freight but if we say that every flighht to the other 3 centres equaled freight that's still a 60 a day. That started dropping off but its didnt cease just like that, took while. Its hard to imagine a tent city in NZ. We did that when hotels were empty, so it worked out ok.

I never bother tracking to see how many flights there were or at what rate they dropped off. I suspect that while the numbers of flights might have trailed off slowly the passenger numbers would have dropped pretty sharply. The was adequate notice of the closure for airlines to deny boarding to anyone not entitled to enter New Zealand. Whether or not they did this I don't know.

I'm pretty sure any airline that delivers a passenger without the correct paperwork (passport, visas etc) to a destination, has to (at the airlines cost) take that person back to the point of embarkation. I'm not sure how that rule applies when borders are closed as in this case.

My point being there should have been very few non residents arriving once the border closure went into effect irrespective of the number of aircraft arriving. You may have good evidence to the contrary.

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#2474135 30-Apr-2020 15:25

alexx:

To the best of my knowledge, there have been very few (if any) documented cases related to restaurants that were due to the serving of food and hot drinks. What has been documented is SSEs (Super Spreader Events), including the Bluff Wedding reception and some of those events did take place at restaurants.

https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/

The key factor in many of these events appeared to crowding and noise, which tends to require people to speak very closely to be heard.

Good article; skimmed it for now but hopefully I can go back and read it some more.

I still want more details on the new cases reported each day!

(EDIT - managed to post the quote without saying anything)

kobiak

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#2474136 30-Apr-2020 15:26

Technofreak:

If that number is New Zealanders it seems to be a high number to me. Let's accept that it is 30,000 New Zealanders. I would imagine a two week amnesty period to be acceptable therefore these people would not have needed to be accommodated. They would have self isolated.

and that is exactly what government did. they waited until there's enough grounds/accomodation for arriving people before quarantine was introduced. they followed your instructions :)

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#2474144 30-Apr-2020 15:33

On2or3wheels:

I wonder if the people calling for a totally closed border ever travel?

How would you like to be stuck in Spain for instance after your country says you can't come home & it could be for a year.
How about it's just you travelling for work & your family is here.
What would happen if you're busy transiting somewhere & suddenly NZ closes, & you're stuck because that country won't let you stay.

I don't think anyone actually called for a totally closed border at least not in the sense it would stop New Zealanders returning home. I think the suggestion was for a temporary very short term total closure while we sorted out how to handle returning New Zealanders then reopened the borders to New Zealanders.

I think a certain Deputy Primer Minister is quite happy to have the general population think some government advisers touted a total closure which would have completely stopped New Zealanders from returning home. That way he can once again be the knight in shining armour.

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#2474145 30-Apr-2020 15:36

I think my estimate of 30000 NZ citizens and residents is just shy :(

https://www.immigration.govt.nz/documents/statistics/statistics-arrivals-by-month

stats does not specify citizens but shows residents. in Jan 20 - 60k, Feb - almost 40k.

There's no March stats.

So if we take total March of just 40k-60k arriving, 2 week would be 20k-30k residents in normal circumstances to quarantine. Does not count citizens :(

Nahhh... not possible.

and remember aussies, they have residency on arrival - don't know if that counts to enter NZ now :)

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#2474152 30-Apr-2020 15:48

ezbee:

Opposition here were not screaming to move faster , quite the opposite , well as opposite as you could get and still so.
These are lessons for the future , but improper to use as judgement on those who had to make decisions with what they had.

This isn't correct. Bridges was asking for tighter borders about a week before it actually happened. And there was this, well before the actual decision on quarantining incoming returnees, which everyone has been ignoring:

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/simon-bridges-calls-government-quarantine-test-everyone-still-arriving-into-nz

DS248

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#2474153 30-Apr-2020 15:52

tdgeek: ... You need to stop making things up. To help you, someone has stated that NZ performance with this virus is woeful. I have merely asked how did we line up globally. ...

"Stop making things up"? Who is making things up? He (ezbee) never said "NZ performance with this virus is woeful". My reading was that his comments were to the effect that we were not initially prepared for it, which was the case on a number of fronts (testing, contact tracing, ...). Hence MOH early on pushing the government hard to close initially NZ borders to all people, including NZ citizens returning from overseas (Bloomfield at briefing today/yesterday?).

Yes, the same could be said for most countries, with many in worse positions. And it was all of us unprepared, not just the authorities. There were a few jurisdictions (Taiwan, HK, ... ) that were well prepared and started setting up pandemic response plans in early January, within a few days of initial reports coming out of China about the virus. Eg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Hong_Kong

But that is now a lesson for the future. Given the ill prepared state we were in, the government & MOH have done well to contain the spread of the virus as well as they have, albeit at a very large cost (a tiny fraction of which would have housed your '12,000' a day).

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