2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Networkn
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#2476294 4-May-2020 13:55

tdgeek:

Doesn't worry me if we go to L2, its L2 or less any way for many, that will grow. I will be laying low

The issue for many, is not the health risk, but rather than the financial impact of the people who don't stay the course, causing us to go back to l3, or even l4 if it got bad enough.

mattwnz

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#2476300 4-May-2020 13:59

tdgeek:

GV27:

0 new cases, but only 2.6K tests run and Bloomfield seems to think any symptomatic spreaders at L3 are yet to pop up.

0 is meaningless, its 2 less than the 2 from the other day, just as 6 was 3 less than the 9 from the other day. Need to wait at least 14 days to see how our socialisers worked out

Also the weekend, fewer people get tested. It isn't until Tuesday or Wednesday do we see more normal test numbers. Also as previously noted here, and as the DG also said today, it won't be until the end of this week, will we begin to see the effects that level 3 , and whether there are any undetected cases in the community.
Any talk of moving to level 2 earlier before scheduled seem to be from people who don't undestand how the levels work, or haven't taken time to understand them, or are ignoring the health experts and the WHO advice IMO.

GV27

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#2476301 4-May-2020 13:59

I doubt we'd ever go back to level 4. I have my own reasons for this, perhaps best shared on another sub-forum.

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#2476308 4-May-2020 14:07

GV27:

I doubt we'd ever go back to level 4. I have my own reasons for this, perhaps best shared on another sub-forum.

Probably not exactly L4, but probably more of a level 3.5. A lot depends on whether our health system risks becoming overwhelmed, and whether we abandon elimination (getting down to zero people with the virus in NZ)or not. But if cases do rise due to undetected community cases, then IMO we came out of level 4 too early, as experts recommended 6-8weeks, or 304 virus cycles, we did 5. I think we could have done a level 3.5 instead of a level 3, and kept schools closed, and required 2m physical distancing in workplaces, not just 1m. I always thought opening schools was a bad idea in level 3, as I would prefer to be more cautious considering we are still learning about this disease. Luckily only about 1% decided to send their children to school.
I see in Australia, they have now shutdown a school after a child tested positive, despite schools and children apparently being low risk, and this is NSWs first case for a while.

tdgeek

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#2476309 4-May-2020 14:07

mattwnz:

Also the weekend, fewer people get tested. It isn't until Tuesday or Wednesday do we see more normal test numbers. Also as previously noted here, and as the DG also said today, it won't be until the end of this week, will we begin to see the effects that level 3 , and whether there are any undetected cases in the community.
Any talk of moving to level 2 earlier before scheduled seem to be from people who don't undestand how the levels work, or haven't taken time to understand them, or are ignoring the health experts and the WHO advice IMO.

I have a mate who tells me we will go to L2 next week. Thats not what he thinks will happen, that's what he wants to happen. Virus, what virus? (slight exaggeration) He doesn't know much about it, he is only interested in the rule, aka a lower level. Its like the virus is a side story.People like that you cannot discuss the health vs economic impact, and where we should be. he only wants certain freedoms he wants back, nothing else to consider. Id suggest that attitude is not rare

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#2476310 4-May-2020 14:12

networkn:

I suspect the reality is, zero new cases will cause those who were teetering about flouting the rules, to flout them. Basically most people will relax 1 level more than they were before.

Exactly my fear; people will hear "0 cases" and will think it is now completely safe and they will abandon any alert level rules they happened to be following.
What they won't do is any follow up research to see what 0 cases actually means and the lag time between getting the virus, infecting others, symptoms, testing and reporting.

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#2476311 4-May-2020 14:14

tdgeek:

GV27:

0 new cases, but only 2.6K tests run and Bloomfield seems to think any symptomatic spreaders at L3 are yet to pop up.

0 is meaningless, its 2 less than the 2 from the other day, just as 6 was 3 less than the 9 from the other day. Need to wait at least 14 days to see how our socialisers worked out

An article on Stuff gives a bit more detail:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121394819/coronavirus-no-new-covid19-cases-deaths

From the above with my emphasis added:

New Zealand has not recorded a single new Covid-19 case or death, the first time in 49 days.

The good news has been delivered by director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield at Parliament on Monday - he acknowledged the result was "cause for celebration."

Bloomfield said Monday's figures were encouraging, but the key test would come later in the week when new cases that have emerged since moving to Level 3 had become symptomatic.

Officials want to be sure that there was no undetected community transmission before finalising a move.

"We may still see cases emerging later this week and there's no guarantee they won't emerge even in those regions that don't have a case".

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#2476313 4-May-2020 14:14

New York Times: WHO's Ryan Says World Is in 'Fight of Our Lives', but There Is Hope

Parts of the world are starting to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic and to cautiously resume some sort of normal life, but the new coronavirus will pose significant risks until vaccines are developed, the WHO's top emergencies expert said on Sunday.

Mike Ryan, executive director of the World Health Organization's (WHO) emergencies programme, said while many countries are still in the eye of the storm, others were beginning to show it is possible to contain the disease to some extent.

"In that sense, there's hope," Ryan told Reuters in an online interview from Geneva.

...However, some countries in Africa and in central and South America are still seeing "an upwards trajectory in cases" and although they may not appear to have a big problem yet, the availability of tests remains an issue, Ryan added.

More than 3.44 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally and 243,015 have died, according to a Reuters tally as of Sunday.

...Ryan said some countries, including China, South Korea, Singapore, New Zealand and others, had reached what he described as "a steady state" with regard to the spread of COVID-19.

Meanwhile Europe and North America are beginning to emerge from "very intense epidemics" of the disease and are now trying to navigate a safe exit from severe restrictions on economic and social activities imposed in the past few months, he said.

After months of severe lockdown, people in Italy and Spain were starting to enjoy a little more freedom on Sunday. Israel has opened some schools, while South Korea said it would further relax social distancing rules from May 6, allowing a phased re-opening of businesses.

Ryan said this showed "not that the virus can be beaten absolutely, but that we can reach a point where we have enough control over the virus that our social and economic lives can begin again".

He reiterated, however, that any government seeking to relax restrictions should do so with extreme caution.
...
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/03/world/europe/03reuters-health-coronavirus-who-ryan.html

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#2476316 4-May-2020 14:18

mattwnz:

GV27:

I doubt we'd ever go back to level 4. I have my own reasons for this, perhaps best shared on another sub-forum.

Probably not exactly L4, but probably more of a level 3.5. A lot depends on whether our health system risks become overwhelm, and whether we abandon elimination or not, so we can fully reopen domestically.

If the loose parts of the population pulled their heads in and complied like many of us are, your points become irrelevant as we can manage and ring fence sporadic cases from here on. Businesses can open, life is good. But those people, and thats significant, tip of the iceberg stuff, you just need one of them to get infected, and it will be impossible to contact trace (broke the rules, so will lie) You then have an invisible enemy, at least a major outbreak in one region, with no wedding, school, store, that you can see is a source, those places are all now recieving infections from anonymous others. Doom and gloom? Not if the vast majority of us played ball, I think that last 4 weeks, its long gone

kingdragonfly

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#2476320 4-May-2020 14:20

New York Times: Dollar Firm but Stocks, Oil Under Pressure as U.S.-China Tensions Rise

The US dollar rose, oil fell and stock markets were poised to slip on Monday as rising U.S.-China tensions over the coronavirus - and growing unease at the gulf between asset prices and grim economic reality - turned investors cautious.

In thin trade, with China and Japan on holiday, U.S. stock futures fell 1.6%, U.S. crude tumbled over $1 a barrel, or 6%, and futures for Australia's benchmark ASX 200 index pointed to a negative open.

The safe-haven U.S. dollar rallied to one-week highs against the risk sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars. (1 New Zealand Dollar equals 0.60 United States Dollar. In good news, 1 New Zealand Dollar equals 0.94 Australian Dollar)

The moves extended a dour start to the month that began on Friday with bleak U.S. data and the threat of fresh trade-war hostilities between the world's two biggest economies.

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo added to the jitters with remarks on Sunday, when he said there was "a significant amount of evidence" that the new coronavirus emerged from a Chinese laboratory.

Pompeo did not provide evidence, or dispute U.S. intelligence agencies' conclusion that the virus was not man-made. But the comments double down on Washington's pressure on China over the virus' origin as U.S. deaths and economic damage mount.
...
U.S. manufacturing plunged to an 11-year low last month, consumer spending has collapsed and some 30.3 million Americans have filed claims for unemployment in the last six weeks.
...
https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/05/03/business/03reuters-global-markets.html

mattwnz

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#2476332 4-May-2020 14:42

Here is a story about people from Wellington, travelling over the Rimutukas to go to places like Riversdale and Castlepoint. The Wairarapa is curently virus fee, and has a lot of elderly / higher at risk people. Obviously this is not these peoples closest beach. Interesting that the Mayor of South Wairarapa asked for a police checkpoint on the Rimutukas to check that peoples travel over the hill was legitimate, but this was declined.

Also as per the article, how come the police commissioner hasn't been fronting press conferences over recent days to reinforce that people still need to stay stay home under level 3 unless they have to for work? I think NZers need to get some reinforcement that people need to comply with the rules.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121394689/coronavirus-anger-over-holiday-makers-travelling-interregionally-to-baches

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#2476350 4-May-2020 14:58

mattwnz:
Interesting that the Mayor of South Wairarapa asked for a police checkpoint on the Rimutukas to check that peoples travel over the hill was legitimate, but this was declined.

If the Mayor was that concerned, surely he could round up a posse and create his own roadblock? After all, these "hasty" roadblocks set up in other parts of the country have been sanctioned by both the PM and Police.

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#2476412 4-May-2020 15:26

tdgeek:

Its nonsense as it doesnt suit you? Maybe everyone here can say all posts that don't agree are nonsense. Or, maybe, we can discuss our opinions?

We can fight the virus, or we can ignore it and deal with it as it regains traction. If its acceptable to have Mitre10, Farmers etc full of people, thats ok, if a cluster hit there, we can temporary close that branch and every other store and mall the many shoppers went to. Thats why Italy etc occurred.Then we go back to L4. Thats the potential scenario.

Im all for opening up as much as possible, I can easily see Mitre10's etc operating as the supermarkets did. They have bigger aisles, it would be easier. But you need to convince the huge numbers of citizens that are treating L3 as if it was L0 to play ball, THAT is the problem.

No it's nonsense because it's nonsense. Anyone who thinks that this is digital is either obtuse or simple.

There is massive, long term societal damage being done by the lockdown. There are huge health risks due to the virus. They have to be balanced. It is pretty clear that there was no need to stay in Level 4 for any more time but if it was just eradicate the virus then the country would still be in level 4.

Paul1977

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#2476417 4-May-2020 15:38

tdgeek:

I thought I was the optimistic one here! It's L0 for the flouters and the socialisers now. When there was a few as in L4 that was manageable, I feel it's way up on that now. We had better hope that none of the handful of cases we get every day have never stepped foot outside.

Doesn't worry me if we go to L2, its L2 or less any way for many, that will grow. I will be laying low

You are the optimistic one. I've been pretty pessimistic as I thought we were coming out of Level 4 too early, but that was when I thought the goal of elimination actually meant 0 cases in NZ.

It became clear by the number of reported cases that after the first 3 weeks of Level 4 that the rule breaking was rapidly rising (still a small minority though). Just as we have seen over the past week a small minority of people flouting the Level 3 rules.

Being a realist, I think the Level 3 restrictions are just too much for a lot of people after 5 weeks at Level 4 (Level 3 is meant to be Level 4 but with a few more people able to go to work - so for most not that different).

I just think with the numbers we are seeing now we need to find a better balance. Rules that will dramatically slow the spread and keep it well under R0 1, but not so strict that people feel oppressed and unable to live their lives.

Level 4 was absolutely necessary, but those sorts of restrictions will only be tolerated for so long.

If you tell people they can't do 9 out of 10 things they would normally do, many will just give up and do them all anyway. If you say they can't do 2 things, but there are 2 things they can do as normal, plus another 6 things they can do within reasonable guidelines; you will get higher overall compliance.

I think it will be a long time before most people will be resorting to the pre-covid way of living. Handshakes will be a thing of the past, as will hugging and kissing hello and goodbye. People will stand further apart while conversing. All of these things give me hope that we won't see the another spike of the sort you'd get with pre-covid everyday behaviour.

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#2476419 4-May-2020 15:39

Issues like these are a concern

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/415731/woman-on-flight-with-covid-19-case-contacted-by-tracing-team-4-point-5-weeks-later

Historical but a reflection of inadequacies that were not admitted in public at the time, so how much faith should we have in information we are currently being fed? Like there being no shortages of PPE, ...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300003585/waitakere-57-staff-stood-down-amid-safety-claims

a. “beggars belief” (nurse) about sums it up
b. Nursing staff in contact with Covid-19 patients later being assigned to other departments with patients not infected with the virus.
c. NZ PPE situation still does not seem up to scratch. There was a TV clip from inside a South Korean hospital a night or two ago & what struck me was that the PPE staff were wearing looked a step up on what often seems to being used here in NZ.

==
Comments have been made that our situation is better than the numbers suggest due to there being several large clusters here. The main take out should instead be that the size of the larger clusters reflects past(?) inadequacies in our PPE, contact tracing and testing.

We have not been and still are not being told the full story, as also shown by the PPE supply issue that came up in the last day or two.

As a number of people have mentioned (including Professor Baker), the lack of data being provided by the MOH is a significant issue. Knowledge is of course power and it seems that the powers that be want to maintain it that way. Notably some of the countries most successful at controlling the virus (Taiwan, South Korea, HK, Vietnam, ...) make much more detail publicly available than is the case here.

The MOH individual case data lack information on outcomes, date tested, symptoms and symptom onset, links between cases, cluster details. Further clarification around probable cases would also help.

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