2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2479865 9-May-2020 18:14

Technofreak:

If this guy is right we've either wasted our time trying to eliminate the virus or we've potentially got a very long road of quarantine/containment ahead of us.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121463027/coronavirus-expert-says-it-may-be-a-decade-before-nz-can-stop-isolating-arrivals

It's hypothetical, because experts seem to think it is likely there will be a vaccine within the next 18 months. We already know that anyone coming into NZ would need to be quarantined for 14 days, and that would need to continue until a vaccine, a good treatment, or the virus dies out in the rest of the world

NZ also doesn't have the health system to cope with a large number of people being infected either, so it is a moot point. Sweden has far more ICU beds and a far better health system from what I can see. Based on how many people are in critical condition in Sweden and all the deaths, their system doesn't appear to have been overwhlemed. I understand they even make ventilators over there. I don't believe NZs health system would be coping if it had the current stats of Sweden in proportion to our population. I haven't seen any recent mention of NZ increasing our ICU beds from the current 500 + we potentially have. Also as we are now increasing elective surgeries that had been put off during level 4, our hospitals will be more full and , as I understand they often operate at near full capacity most of the time due to the way the system works in in NZ. Not to mention that NZ is now heading int winter, whereas the Northern hemisphere is heading into summer, and the virus will likely thrive in southern hemisphere winter conditions from what Bill Gates said.

We also need to remember that NZ has largely followed the WHO advice, of trying to get rid of the virus and not allowing it to spread. Plus there is no evidence that herd immunity will work, and that people who get the virus won't get it again. .

Also Sweden's death rates is running at over 10% of confirmed cases. Based on NZ and Australias numbers, it is likely it doesn't kill that high a percentage normally, and it is a likely closer to 1%. SO their real number of cases could be 10 times that figure. Doesn't sound like they are testing everyone.

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#2479870 9-May-2020 18:22

asymptomatic UFC fighter tests positive https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/combat-sports/121463724/coronavirus-ronaldo-souza-out-of-ufc-249-after-testing-positive

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#2479887 9-May-2020 18:41

Geektastic:

afe66: "UK to bring in 12 day quarantine for air passengers " .
The new restriction is expected to come in at the end of the month. BBC news web site.

Eh WHAT !!! 30,000 deaths and you still havent brought in air quarantine yet...

I read that 13 million people arrived in the UK in the first 3 months of the year...!

At a guess, that's probably about similar ratio / population basis to here, where there'd be about 800,000 foreign visitors Jan-March, plus about 500,000 NZers returning from trips (2 million overseas trips per year / 4).

I don't think many people here - criticising how even in NZ we were "too slow" to shut the border - recognised the scale of the problem doing that.

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#2479892 9-May-2020 18:58

Technofreak:
If this guy is right we've either wasted our time trying to eliminate the virus or we've potentially got a very long road of quarantine/containment ahead of us.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121463027/coronavirus-expert-says-it-may-be-a-decade-before-nz-can-stop-isolating-arrivals

"... it may be..." I.e. probably won't be. That worst case assumes no vaccine is available for a decade. I wouldn't bet on it. So what if we have to quarantine incomers until then? It's not the end of the world.

The alternative is that we all go into the 1% (best case) fatality lottery. Possibly repeatedly.

Tinkerisk

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#2479895 9-May-2020 19:03

From now on, the responsibility for the further Covid-19 combat and for the easing here in Germany lies in the hands of the 294 individual urban and rural districts. This has advantages but also serious disadvantages. I think Chancellor Merkel is definitely annoyed by the constant cries of opening the economy.

The regulation states that each region has to order a LOCAL lockdown and countermeasures if the infection rate has exceeded 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 7 days. Experts consider this number too high. It should probably be below 35 new infections. We will see. If there is a local lockdown, the damage to that region will be many times higher than before.

edit: To give you an impression how this gonna work please have a look to the map: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/

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#2479909 9-May-2020 19:19

mattwnz:

Also Sweden's death rates is running at over 10% of confirmed cases. Based on NZ and Australias numbers, it is likely it doesn't kill that high a percentage normally, and it is a likely closer to 1%. SO their real number of cases could be 10 times that figure. Doesn't sound like they are testing everyone.

From the article & Worldometer: 25,265 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 3175 deaths = 12.5% (1 in 8). That kind of death rate usually means that people aren't getting into hospital. But Sweden has a good health system.

Possibly it's underreporting of infections. But that was disputed in another article which said that on that basis Stockholm should have 6M infections. But it only has 1M citizens. Maybe the distribution of the disease is non-uniform, being much more prevalent outside of Stockholm.

I can't think of an explanation.

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Technofreak

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#2479919 9-May-2020 19:42

frankv:
Technofreak:

If this guy is right we've either wasted our time trying to eliminate the virus or we've potentially got a very long road of quarantine/containment ahead of us.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121463027/coronavirus-expert-says-it-may-be-a-decade-before-nz-can-stop-isolating-arrivals

"... it may be..." I.e. probably won't be. That worst case assumes no vaccine is available for a decade. I wouldn't bet on it. So what if we have to quarantine incomers until then? It's not the end of the world.

The alternative is that we all go into the 1% (best case) fatality lottery. Possibly repeatedly.

It has been pointed out more than once there is no vaccine for AIDS, Ebola or SARS plus a few others I've forgotten, so why do we expect a vaccine for Covid 19. I have my own thoughts on why some of these diseases still don't have a vaccine and I think there is a very good chance there will be a vaccine within normal time frames (18 months or so).

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mattwnz

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#2479922 9-May-2020 19:55

Technofreak:

It has been pointed out more than once there is no vaccine for AIDS, Ebola or SARS plus a few others I've forgotten, so why do we expect a vaccine for Covid 19. I have my own thoughts on why some of these diseases still don't have a vaccine and I think there is a very good chance there will be a vaccine within normal time frames (18 months or so).

SARS was essentially eradicated from what I can understand before a vaccine could be developed. AIDS , there is effective treatment for it, but it could also do with a vaccine. Ebola isn't as much of a problem I understand because it knocks people down soon after infection preventing people spreading it silently over a long period of time.

But we also don't have a vaccine for the common cold. I do winder if this virus had the death rate of SARS, whether we would have done things differently.

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#2479924 9-May-2020 20:02

Tinkerisk:

From now on, the responsibility for the further Covid-19 combat and for the easing here in Germany lies in the hands of the 294 individual urban and rural districts. This has advantages but also serious disadvantages. I think Chancellor Merkel is definitely annoyed by the constant cries of opening the economy.

The regulation states that each region has to order a LOCAL lockdown and countermeasures if the infection rate has exceeded 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants in the last 7 days. Experts consider this number too high. It should probably be below 35 new infections. We will see. If there is a local lockdown, the damage to that region will be many times higher than before.

edit: To give you an impression how this gonna work please have a look to the map: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/

German will follow rules. Kiwi ... you'll need to deploy the army to do that.

vexxxboy

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#2479928 9-May-2020 20:12

There is a vaccine for Ebola came into production at the end of last year' Good story here of how they did it.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/07/inside-story-scientists-produced-world-first-ebola-vaccine/

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Tinkerisk

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#2479929 9-May-2020 20:12

Batman: German will follow rules. Kiwi ... you'll need to deploy the army to do that.

But should that be easy to understand? If the rules are not followed, the whole gang will cram in and everyone will have to stay at home. Amazingly, even the grass-smoking chickpea neighbors next door (or maybe because of that) understand that. ;-)

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BarTender

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#2479938 9-May-2020 20:35

Handle9:
Technofreak:

If this guy is right we've either wasted our time trying to eliminate the virus or we've potentially got a very long road of quarantine/containment ahead of us.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121463027/coronavirus-expert-says-it-may-be-a-decade-before-nz-can-stop-isolating-arrivals

The flip side is if he is wrong Sweden has needlessly killed thousands of its citizens.

No one really knows, despite strong opinions on both sides.

There will be strong signals within 6 months or so which approach was right as the actual mortality will be able to be fairly accurately known across most developed countries. By then I expect existing therapeutics that can help reduce the impacts on infected people will be known and how much they can shake down governments for it. Depending on if the manufacturer comes from the US vs elsewhere in the world will dictate how they respond and if they jack the prices up and receive the wrath of every government across the world or not.

And it is not who was right or not as I consider there is a far greater impact on the economy a lot of people dying vs locking down. As John Oliver said it is choosing the difference between one bad outcome and both bad outcomes.

I think the problem is we will have a long road ahead of us no matter what NZ does. Tourism and associated sectors are completely screwed and the vast majority of them will need to pivot elsewhere to stay afloat.

The rest of NZ should come through this ok enough just with a lot of government debt.. but still a whole lot less that every other first world country.

To me time to start throwing a lot of money at education and up-skill the whole country.

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#2479981 9-May-2020 22:09

The biggest SNAFU under L2 I think will be allowing bars to open.

A whole bunch of drunks trying to socially distance? Sure. That'll work, no problem!

mattwnz

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#2479995 10-May-2020 00:01

BarTender:

I think the problem is we will have a long road ahead of us no matter what NZ does. Tourism and associated sectors are completely screwed and the vast majority of them will need to pivot elsewhere to stay afloat.

NZ needs to adapt to the changes in the world that have occurred. No international tourism, or very few visitors, would have occurred no matter if we went into lockdown or not, it is something outside our control. A lot of the tourism money comes from NZers who holiday locally. Those NZers now won't be able to spend their money on overseas travel ,so it can stay in NZ. So it is about this sector creating new products and services that NZers want to do . Think of all that air pollution that isn't now occurring due to all these tourists coming to NZ.
Before the 2000's international tourism wasn't a big industry like it is today, and alot of tourism was local based.

Maybe more emphasis on farming, such as wool and sheep, and adding value to those products. Create more Icebreaker like brands and products that people want to buy, rather than exporting these raw products like timber, wool, milk etc, off to China for them to add value to them.

Potentially this is a big opportunity for NZ, and many successful companies end up doing very well out of these types of events long term. Amazon seem to be doing pretty well, and did well previously after the GF. Long term, what was happening in the world precovid, wasn't sustainable long term for the environment, due to all the pollution and other environmental damage like deforestation that was occurring.

mattwnz

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#2480003 10-May-2020 00:37

Geektastic:

The biggest SNAFU under L2 I think will be allowing bars to open.

A whole bunch of drunks trying to socially distance? Sure. That'll work, no problem!

They aren't really. Any bar that opens has to have people sitting at tables, and tables all have to be separated. Each table then has to be served by a waiter. eg people can't go up to a bar for drinks So it won't be a normal bar environment. I can see table distancing is going to be an issue, as many smaller restaurants have as many tables crammed in as they can I have found. SO I can see that some won't be able to operate economically if table numbers are reduced.

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