2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2480074 10-May-2020 07:51

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

"Significantly, the last three days' test results reflect level 3 conditions. People testing positive yesterday likely felt symptoms on Wednesday or Thursday meaning they contracted the virus at the end of last week under level 3," the ACT leader says in a statement on Saturday.

Only if people have bothered to get tested. It has been shown people can take 5 days or longer for people to decide that it maybe a good idea to get tested, after developing symptoms. So the first level 3 cases may not appear until this week. It was recommended by one expert working with the MOH for the MOH to actively contact people to see how they feel, to try and prompt people to get tested. This could occur in known areas with there are cases.

But 2 cases today and some other recent ones, have been traced back to existing cluster.,But I wonder if many of those have occurred because of level 3 causing more bubbles to merge? The MOH are still not providing enough details on these current cases, which they can easily do. There was also a very recent case of someone in Nelson, who I understand may have been a supermarket worker that they hadn't apparently linked to any cluster. Not sure if that has been linked to any other case yet?

Yep, who cares if it came from a cluster, I care where the person has been, to potentially affect others. Then there are days before they decide to get tested, then 1-2 days for a result. If they infected anyone 3 days ago, add another 6-7 days

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#2480077 10-May-2020 07:56

Geektastic:

The biggest SNAFU under L2 I think will be allowing bars to open.

A whole bunch of drunks trying to socially distance? Sure. That'll work, no problem!

Ive never been to a bar that has a bunch of drunks. Maybe you need to go to a better class of bar

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#2480081 10-May-2020 08:17

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

Total cases by DHB, as at 9.00 am, 9 May 2020: NZ now has only 103 active cases and reducing daily as the number of recovered cases exceeds the new cases. This is a great recovery by NZ from a total of nearly 1500 cases and probably explains why a lot of people have relaxed and are breaking the Level 3 rules (but still no excuse for doing this).

Considering that, until a vaccine is available, NZ is always likely to have a few active cases, I hope that the numbers of active cases don't start going up again, so it will be very interesting to watch these statistics during the next few days. I think many countries would relax restrictions and get their economies going again if they had only 100 active cases.

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#2480092 10-May-2020 09:15

mattwnz: So it (table service) won't be a normal bar environment.

It won't be a normal NZ bar environment. But it's perfectly normal in a lot of other places. E.g US

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#2480186 10-May-2020 10:29

On the latest Real Time for Bill Maher, he went on about how the lack of physical fitness and obesity in the US made the Coronavirus much worse.

Not a popular sentiment, but Bill is know for his non-mainstream opinions.

He went on to compare the Covid-19 / Coronavirus, and the 1968 Hong Kong flu, which killed one million people world-wide.

He went on to talk about how Americans were tough enough to go to the 1969 New York "Woodstock" festival, attending by 400,000. Billed as a free love festival, lack of sanitation and abundance of physical contact was more common than anything today.

Even though Hong Kong flu killed a million people worldwide, literally half of those were in Hong Kong, killing 15% of their population.

In the US, about 34,000 died, over it's entire run. It had low death rate, with a case-fatality ratio below 0.5%

Covid has a case-fatality ratio of around 3.4%, according to the WHO as of 3 March, and the current US death count should be 80,000 relatively soon.

So the two are not comparable.

I know Bill Maher, and everyone, wants things to return to normal, but putting out misinformation is never good.

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#2480361 10-May-2020 11:13

mattwnz: NZ needs to adapt to the changes in the world that have occurred. No international tourism, or very few visitors, would have occurred no matter if we went into lockdown or not, it is something outside our control. A lot of the tourism money comes from NZers who holiday locally. Those NZers now won't be able to spend their money on overseas travel ,so it can stay in NZ. So it is about this sector creating new products and services that NZers want to do . Think of all that air pollution that isn't now occurring due to all these tourists coming to NZ.
Before the 2000's international tourism wasn't a big industry like it is today, and alot of tourism was local based.

Maybe more emphasis on farming, such as wool and sheep, and adding value to those products. Create more Icebreaker like brands and products that people want to buy, rather than exporting these raw products like timber, wool, milk etc, off to China for them to add value to them.

This is an area I think the government are letting down the tourism and ancillary sectors such as hotels etc.

I get that NZers will now be forced to travel domestically rather than internationally but the prime tourism destinations (Queenstown/Rotorua/Taupo etc) have all their services priced at international rates.

So you have not only NZers losing their jobs, concerned about their businesses or having to take a pay cut to stay afloat that the customers won't have as much spending / discretionary money for holidays you also have the destinations that will need to adjust their pricing to encourage NZers out but at those prices they can't even break even. It's a double whammy for them and it is going to significantly hurt.

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#2480378 10-May-2020 11:32

BarTender:

I get that NZers will now be forced to travel domestically rather than internationally but the prime tourism destinations (Queenstown/Rotorua/Taupo etc) have all their services priced at international rates.

This for me is a big issue that no one really wants to talk about. Tourism didn't have a reputation for paying well in some of these areas to begin with. They realistically can't pay people any less than they already are.

Also, some of our operators aren't that sophisticated. Two Taupo places I stay at; one has a constantly evolving price mechanism that seems to be working off the number of enquiries it gets on its website (you can shift the pricing curve if you keep changing your mind about dates when you are thinking about booking, eventually you have to wait and come back tomorrow when the effects of your searches have worn off). Finding a weekend with very little on means you can get a really cheap rate. They also offer multi-night discounts and discounts for booking in advance, tiered at 30/60/90 days.

Another place: The room is the same price, no matter what, no matter the weekend, irrespective of demand. There's no sensitivities (Tuesdays, for instance, are not cheaper than weekends). It's just peak and off-peak pricing. Because of where it is, those prices are usually pretty high to begin with.

For the price of two nights at the 2nd place, I can get 4 nights at the second with enough change left over for a dinner out. Guess which one I go to more often.

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#2480415 10-May-2020 13:00

@1NewsNZ #Breaking 2 new cases of Covid-19 to report in NZ today, with both confirmed. No further deaths to report, with the death toll remaining at 21. Number of confirmed and probable cases now 1494.

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#2480417 10-May-2020 13:02

GV27:

BarTender:

I get that NZers will now be forced to travel domestically rather than internationally but the prime tourism destinations (Queenstown/Rotorua/Taupo etc) have all their services priced at international rates.

This for me is a big issue that no one really wants to talk about. Tourism didn't have a reputation for paying well in some of these areas to begin with. They realistically can't pay people any less than they already are.

Also, some of our operators aren't that sophisticated. Two Taupo places I stay at; one has a constantly evolving price mechanism that seems to be working off the number of enquiries it gets on its website (you can shift the pricing curve if you keep changing your mind about dates when you are thinking about booking, eventually you have to wait and come back tomorrow when the effects of your searches have worn off). Finding a weekend with very little on means you can get a really cheap rate. They also offer multi-night discounts and discounts for booking in advance, tiered at 30/60/90 days.

Another place: The room is the same price, no matter what, no matter the weekend, irrespective of demand. There's no sensitivities (Tuesdays, for instance, are not cheaper than weekends). It's just peak and off-peak pricing. Because of where it is, those prices are usually pretty high to begin with.

For the price of two nights at the 2nd place, I can get 4 nights at the second with enough change left over for a dinner out. Guess which one I go to more often.

Its up to the operators to do what they can to encourage business. High rates are no issue, as long as they fill the rooms high rates are good. Now they need to set rates to fill rooms. Up to them

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#2480422 10-May-2020 13:09

GV27:

@1NewsNZ #Breaking 2 new cases of Covid-19 to report in NZ today, with both confirmed. No further deaths to report, with the death toll remaining at 21. Number of confirmed and probable cases now 1494.

I guess that goes close to locking in L2. Tomorrow is bound to be 0-2 as well

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#2480429 10-May-2020 13:20

South Korea shows example of C19 is 2 weeks ahead of whatever actions you take, almost 2 weeks before you discover 1 case to lead to 40.

Hopefully they have this snuffed, Hopefully we do, and have generous sentinel testing and tracing .

Hopefully we have people being sensible at bars and private events when tipsy , and friends look after each other.
Could do with a variation on the drink driving ads, friends looking after each others bubbles.
Private gatherings of up to 100 are going to be interesting.

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/south-korea-faces-flare-up-in-coronavirus-cases-tied-to-nightclubs

"
The order came after a cluster was detected and traced to a 29-year-old man who visited clubs and bars at Itaewon in Seoul last weekend.

The man, who lives in Yongin city, Gyeonggi province, south-east of Seoul, travelled to Seoul with three friends on Thursday two weeks ago (April 30). He went club-hopping with one of them in the capital the following night. They visited a total of five clubs and bars in Itaewon.

He tested positive for the virus on Wednesday (May 6). The friend who went clubbing with him, a 31-year-old resident of Anyang city, has also tested positive.

Mayor Park said a total of 27 Seoul residents traceable to the Itaewon cluster were confirmed positive for the coronavirus as of midday Saturday (May 9).

The number of confirmed cases linked to the Itaewon cluster was 40 across the country.
"

P.S. Considering media can use the revenue, does anyone else think the advertising supporting C19 controls has been a bit weak and light.
Maybe its just me

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#2480446 10-May-2020 13:26

They say 1 of the cases is "not a healthcare worker - they are a household contact of an earlier case linked to St Margaret's."

the 2nd is a female in her 20's who arrived from the USA on the 25th March.

The Ruby Princess Cluster has increased by 1 (presumably reallocated)

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#2480452 10-May-2020 13:38

Yabanize:

They say 1 of the cases is "not a healthcare worker - they are a household contact of an earlier case linked to St Margaret's."

the 2nd is a female in her 20's who arrived from the USA on the 25th March.

The Ruby Princess Cluster has increased by 1 (presumably reallocated)

If the 20yo is a new case now, surely she didn't come back from the US as infected, and got infected in the last week or two? I can't see how its labelled an imported case

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#2480534 10-May-2020 13:59

tdgeek:

Yabanize:

They say 1 of the cases is "not a healthcare worker - they are a household contact of an earlier case linked to St Margaret's."

the 2nd is a female in her 20's who arrived from the USA on the 25th March.

The Ruby Princess Cluster has increased by 1 (presumably reallocated)

If the 20yo is a new case now, surely she didn't come back from the US as infected, and got infected in the last week or two? I can't see how its labelled an imported case

Info provided in statistics is a bit thin .

There were a number of cases relating to Air Travel on 25th, Mar, Canada , Australia, but there is one way down the list from America on 25th.
No Flight number as per this one.

05/04/2020 Male 40 to 49 Counties Manukau Yes United States of America. Flight 25/03
So could be two cycles ?
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details

bmt

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#2480539 10-May-2020 14:16

BarTender:

mattwnz: NZ needs to adapt to the changes in the world that have occurred. No international tourism, or very few visitors, would have occurred no matter if we went into lockdown or not, it is something outside our control. A lot of the tourism money comes from NZers who holiday locally. Those NZers now won't be able to spend their money on overseas travel ,so it can stay in NZ. So it is about this sector creating new products and services that NZers want to do . Think of all that air pollution that isn't now occurring due to all these tourists coming to NZ.
Before the 2000's international tourism wasn't a big industry like it is today, and alot of tourism was local based.

Maybe more emphasis on farming, such as wool and sheep, and adding value to those products. Create more Icebreaker like brands and products that people want to buy, rather than exporting these raw products like timber, wool, milk etc, off to China for them to add value to them.

This is an area I think the government are letting down the tourism and ancillary sectors such as hotels etc.

I get that NZers will now be forced to travel domestically rather than internationally but the prime tourism destinations (Queenstown/Rotorua/Taupo etc) have all their services priced at international rates.

So you have not only NZers losing their jobs, concerned about their businesses or having to take a pay cut to stay afloat that the customers won't have as much spending / discretionary money for holidays you also have the destinations that will need to adjust their pricing to encourage NZers out but at those prices they can't even break even. It's a double whammy for them and it is going to significantly hurt.

How does the quoted post or the rest of your post relate at all to your first sentence? None of that has anything to do with what the government is doing.

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