2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2481094 11-May-2020 12:31

"Herd immunity" isn't a science-based option to give the best public health outcome. It's wishful-thinking by politicians who failed to protect their populations.

Long-term sequelae were known from SARS (1) survivors long before C19 reared it's head, there's never been a human vaccine for coronaviruses, there's no evidence that immunity will last long enough for the pandemic to run its course without overwhelming health systems, and there's reasonable cause for concern that a vaccine (or a subsequent infection) may cause antibody enhanced infection.

NZ (and other countries that have so-far succeeded in containment/elimination) will be on the receiving end of propaganda - with wild claims that our "cure" (prevention) was worse than the disease. Don't expect genuine praise from those for whom NZ's success only highlights the failure of their alternatives.

DS248

1691 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2481107 11-May-2020 12:39

HK revised hospital discharge criteria (7 May)

https://www.news.gov.hk/eng/2020/05/20200507/20200507_172100_983.html?type=category&name=covid19

revised discharge criteria based on the latest scientific evidence on whether the virus will be viable from a patient
recovered COVID-19 patients or those who did not have any symptoms may be discharged from hospital 10 days after the onset of symptoms or a positive test result.
still have to meet the criteria of having two clinical specimens test negative, or testing positive for the SARS-CoV-2 antibody to be discharged

DS248

1691 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2481161 11-May-2020 13:44

So, 3 new cases announced today, 1 local, and source for the other 2 not yet advised. This is far short elimination and far short of the situation in HK, Taiwan, Vietnam, or even SK. Does not seem good enough to go down to L2.

cshwone

1070 posts

Uber Geek

#2481163 11-May-2020 13:48

DS248:

So, 3 new cases announced today, 1 local, and source for the other 2 not yet advised. This is far short elimination and far short of the situation in HK, Taiwan, Vietnam, or even SK. Does not seem good enough to go down to L2.

Not sure where you got your info from. Reported as 1 returning traveler and 2 Waitakere Hospital Nurses.

vexxxboy

4243 posts

Uber Geek

#2481165 11-May-2020 13:51

DS248:

So, 3 new cases announced today, 1 local, and source for the other 2 not yet advised. This is far short elimination and far short of the situation in HK, Taiwan, Vietnam, or even SK. Does not seem good enough to go down to L2.

still no CT turned up in NZ all new cases are from the clusters , easily tracked and isolated, which is what elimination basically is.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2481170 11-May-2020 13:59

vexxxboy:

DS248:

So, 3 new cases announced today, 1 local, and source for the other 2 not yet advised. This is far short elimination and far short of the situation in HK, Taiwan, Vietnam, or even SK. Does not seem good enough to go down to L2.

still no CT turned up in NZ all new cases are from the clusters , easily tracked and isolated, which is what elimination basically is.

True - but the seeds of an outbreak may have been there with the two nurses who could have been circulating in the community and passing the infection on before being diagnosed - which far more likely in L2 than L3.

I'd be reasonably happy to go to L2 if it's monitored very closely and ramped back up to L3 or L4 immediately if there's any untraceable CT.

My son's friends (in their 20s) are already organising big "end of lockdown parties" for this weekend. Even if bars/clubs were open enforcing distancing etc, I guess the parties will be a free-for-all.

cshwone

1070 posts

Uber Geek

#2481172 11-May-2020 14:05

Fred99:

True - but the seeds of an outbreak may have been there with the two nurses who could have been circulating in the community and passing the infection on before being diagnosed

Fred. The two nurses were in self-isolation due to the outbreak at Waitakere Hospital related to the transferred rest home folk.

As health professionals, I would hardly think they would have been wandering around.

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vexxxboy

4243 posts

Uber Geek

#2481174 11-May-2020 14:10

True - but the seeds of an outbreak may have been there with the two nurses who could have been circulating in the community and passing the infection on before being diagnosed - which far more likely in L2 than L3.

I'd be reasonably happy to go to L2 if it's monitored very closely and ramped back up to L3 or L4 immediately if there's any untraceable CT.

My son's friends (in their 20s) are already organising big "end of lockdown parties" for this weekend. Even if bars/clubs were open enforcing distancing etc, I guess the parties will be a free-for-all.

but they werent because of the tracing, they were put in isolation immediately the first nurse was confirmed, they had no symptoms but later tested positive and were still in isolation.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2481175 11-May-2020 14:14

cshwone:

Fred99:

True - but the seeds of an outbreak may have been there with the two nurses who could have been circulating in the community and passing the infection on before being diagnosed

Fred. The two nurses were in self-isolation due to the outbreak at Waitakere Hospital related to the transferred rest home folk.

As health professionals, I would hardly think they would have been wandering around.

OK thanks - the news article I read didn't mention that they were in self-isolation. There had been cases of infection with nursing staff - not in isolation until being picked up only when they became symptomatic.

Edit - Here's one : https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325316

heapsort

245 posts

Master Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2481177 11-May-2020 14:19

The Ministry of Health has released its letter replying to Simon Bridges' assertion that the Ministry was slow in responses, and that government suspended the Official Information Act.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/covid-19-epidemic-response-committee

Spoiler: no oustanding responses, and OIA not suspended. I'll avoid further comment as this is not the political thread.

nzkiwiman

2585 posts

Uber Geek

Subscriber

#2481182 11-May-2020 14:24

frankv:

This link https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them I posted a couple of days ago talks about aerosols and droplets and your chances of getting infected. Yes, very small from someone infectious walking past. Very large from spending extended time in the same room. (Read the case study of Bob, it's an eye-opener). Social distancing isn't much protection indoors. Contact tracing won't save you, but would save those you would have come into contact with.

Excellent article, similar to one that was posted before but easier to read

When more people come back to work, that is when I get worried (considering we were due to move offices at the end of March into a smaller space), and then my aforementioned avoidance of indoor places..

Those Hong Kong stats are what I want to see on the MOH website, so I hope they have them and have just determined "average joe public" doesn't need that information

mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2481187 11-May-2020 14:25

vexxxboy:

DS248:

So, 3 new cases announced today, 1 local, and source for the other 2 not yet advised. This is far short elimination and far short of the situation in HK, Taiwan, Vietnam, or even SK. Does not seem good enough to go down to L2.

still no CT turned up in NZ all new cases are from the clusters , easily tracked and isolated, which is what elimination basically is.

Not so easily tracked in NZ, as our system appears quite manual, and involves phoning people. That is if they answer their phones which isn't that common these day. But IMO we really need some intervention to sort out this long tail. I understand in China they really ring fenced current cases to prevent transmission

mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2481193 11-May-2020 14:32

This is a really good article about NZs situation. This guy has written some really good articles, makes a difference from normal sensationalist mains stream media.

COVID-19 illustrates the difficulties society has in dealing with uncertainties and the stresses this creates

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104935/covid-19-illustrates-difficulties-society-has-dealing-uncertainties-and-stresses

mattwnz

20141 posts

Uber Geek

#2481199 11-May-2020 14:38

heapsort:

I'll avoid further comment as this is not the political thread.

I would like to see the election postponed, as we do now seem to be in election mode. Like it or not, this now seems to have become really political. It seems in Australia their parties appear to be far more unified in this. We don't want the wrong decisions being made on this. NZ needs to be united as one against covid19, and not head down the current track, and the only way I can see this, is delaying the election.Makes sense to delay until March / April next year IMO and see where we are at then. Sure, question the governments decisions is fine, and we also need a good strong media for that, but not do what has occurred in the last 3 or so weeks. It does seem to be really dividing the country, and wouldn't be surprised if it is one reason some people are already acting like they are in level 1 already.

DS248

1691 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2481211 11-May-2020 14:52

No TV briefing today so info was from MOH website individual case data. Also checked Stuff but a bit too soon it appears (live update link just said 3 new cases, no details).

Source identified for only one case in the MOH data; ie. under 'Overseas travel', one case = no, the other two blank.

vexxxboy: "all new cases are from the clusters": According to stuff article published at 13:36 (a few minutes after I checked), two of the cases were from the St Margaret’s cluster, and the third was overseas travel related. The MOH cluster page also states only two new cluster related.

There is nothing I can find on the MOH site stating that one was a returning traveler though obviously from news sites that is the case. Will at least need "Arrival date" in NZ before can fully assess that. Only two out of the last seven cases that MOH class as 'Overseas Travel' arrived in NZ within 14 days of the 'Date notified of potential case'.

The fact that long standing clusters are still producing cases is not good.

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