2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2481215 11-May-2020 14:57

DS248:

No TV briefing today so info was from MOH website individual case data. Also checked Stuff but a bit too soon it appears (live update link just said 3 new cases, no details).

Source identified for only one case in the MOH data; ie. under 'Overseas travel', one case = no, the other two blank.

It's not the easiest to find on the MOH website, but the current press releases is at https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/3-new-cases-covid-19-3

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#2481325 11-May-2020 15:32

mattwnz: ...

It's not the easiest to find on the MOH website, but the current press releases is at https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/3-new-cases-covid-19-3

Thanks. Good to know. Had not realised there was a publicly accessible media release page. Have only been monitoring three MOH pages

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details#download

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-significant-clusters

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#2481328 11-May-2020 15:35

mattwnz:

This is a really good article about NZs situation. This guy has written some really good articles, makes a difference from normal sensationalist mains stream media.

COVID-19 illustrates the difficulties society has in dealing with uncertainties and the stresses this creates

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/104935/covid-19-illustrates-difficulties-society-has-dealing-uncertainties-and-stresses

Read a few of his articles now. A hell of a lot of common sense.

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#2481353 11-May-2020 16:32

freitasm:
While we have places like Russia, Brazil and USA doing so badly I am not convinced we should re-open borders soon.

All three of those are the poster children for how not to handle Covid19 though, they're so bad that they're really "whatever these guys did, do the opposite". There are large number of countries - actually pretty much all of them - who handled it less badly, so I'm not sure that using the extreme examples is very representative.

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#2481355 11-May-2020 16:35

@neb:

freitasm:

While we have places like Russia, Brazil and USA doing so badly I am not convinced we should re-open borders soon.

All three of those are the poster children for how not to handle Covid19 though, they're so bad that they're really "whatever these guys did, do the opposite". There are large number of countries - actually pretty much all of them - who handled it less badly, so I'm not sure that using the extreme examples is very representative.

I wasn't talking about the procedures and not using these countries as role models.

My point is that a lot of people coming here would transit through the USA for example, or originate/have contact with someone from a country that's been bad at curbing its infection rate - include on this Italy and the UK.

For this alone we shouldn't open borders just yet until these other possible origin places had effectively cleaned up their act.

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#2481357 11-May-2020 16:37

New Zealand is moving to alert level 2 from Thursday and schools reopen on Monday May 18. Bars will reopen a bit later, the following Thursday.

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#2481358 11-May-2020 16:38

Press release:

The Government has announced that New Zealand can safely move out of Alert Level 3 at 11.59pm on Wednesday 13 May.

Until then, we're still at Alert Level 3, and all Alert Level 3 guidance and restrictions apply.

Cabinet has decided to phase in some aspects of Alert Level 2 in order to manage the risk of stepping down Alert Levels.

COVID-19 continues to be spread by close personal contact. Gatherings and social events where people mix and mingle present the highest risk of spreading COVID-19. Some of the biggest COVID-19 clusters have come from these types of events.

Under the first phase of Alert Level 2 gatherings can have up to 10 people. This applies to wedding ceremonies, funerals and tangihanga, religious ceremonies, gatherings at home, and each group within a restaurant or other venue. This is a temporary measure that will be reviewed in 2 weeks' time. It does not apply to large public venues, or playing professional sports, which are controlled environments.

Until 21 May, venues like cafes, restaurants, bars and clubs are restricted to opening for dining, and with groups of 10 seated separately, and served by a single server.

The information on Alert Level 2 restrictions is being updated to reflect today's decision.

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#2481359 11-May-2020 16:38

freitasm:
My point is that a lot of people coming here would transit through the USA for example, or originate/have contact with someone from a country that's been bad at curbing its infection rate - include on this Italy and the UK.

Sure, so you'd need a source routing option where you allow people in via a particular path, e.g. Japan -> NZ, but not another, Japan -> SFO -> NZ. It's feasible (although not simple), and better than a blanket ban on all visitors.

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#2481360 11-May-2020 16:40

neb:
freitasm:

My point is that a lot of people coming here would transit through the USA for example, or originate/have contact with someone from a country that's been bad at curbing its infection rate - include on this Italy and the UK.

Sure, so you'd need a source routing option where you allow people in via a particular path, e.g. Japan -> NZ, but not another, Japan -> SFO -> NZ. It's feasible (although not simple), and better than a blanket ban on all visitors.

And controls in place for preventing people doing SFO - Japan - NZ just for the giggles. This would require a big change in systems and tracking.

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#2481361 11-May-2020 16:44

DS248:
Gold standard?

As an illustration of what might actually be gold standard, the table below lists (some of the) published details for the last 30 cases in Hong Kong (not that they use the term 'gold standard').

Vietnam is similar, they've published a list of each infected person, location, age, gender, and what happened to them. It was kind of odd reading about it, Country X would say "325 new cases, 87 critical" and Vietnam would say "2 new cases, one a 41-year old woman from Haiphong who likes cats and cooks a mean bun cha, the other a 72-year old man from Da Nang, retired teacher who writes poetry in the evenings", they had so few cases that each one was individually noted. OK, not to that level but they still listed individual people as cases rather than "another three hundred today".

Just goes to show what you can do when you have the WHO and CDC advising you on handling the issue.

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#2481362 11-May-2020 16:46

Fred99:
"Herd immunity" isn't a science-based option to give the best public health outcome. It's wishful-thinking by politicians who failed to protect their populations.

Wish there was a way to award a double-+1 to some posts. This is an exact description of what Covid19 "herd immunity" is.

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#2481363 11-May-2020 16:47

Fred99:
My son's friends (in their 20s) are already organising big "end of lockdown parties" for this weekend. Even if bars/clubs were open enforcing distancing etc, I guess the parties will be a free-for-all.

There was a party last weekend that I could hear across the water, still going in at about 1am. So some idiots are already at it.

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#2481364 11-May-2020 16:53

freitasm:
And controls in place for preventing people doing SFO - Japan - NZ just for the giggles. This would require a big change in systems and tracking.

I was assuming the exact opposite, given the electronic tracking of all travel you could only allow non-US-transit travel, thus the source routing comment.

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#2481365 11-May-2020 16:56

neb:

freitasm:

And controls in place for preventing people doing SFO - Japan - NZ just for the giggles. This would require a big change in systems and tracking.

I was assuming the exact opposite, given the electronic tracking of all travel you could only allow non-US-transit travel, thus the source routing comment.

How would you prevent someone boarding from the San Francisco to Narita, staying a couple of days in Tokio and flying to New Zealand? With a forced quarantine in each stopover?

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#2481374 11-May-2020 17:05

freitasm:
How would you prevent someone boarding from the San Francisco to Narita, staying a couple of days in Tokio and flying to New Zealand? With a forced quarantine in each stopover?

You'd see that they'd come from SFO originally and not allow them to board the NZ flight at Narita. Or at least require x weeks quarantine and two negative Covid19 tests, or whatever conditions you want to impose, before they can continue to NZ.

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