2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2486491 19-May-2020 17:31

Story on Stuff:

Coronavirus: We may need 28-days of no cases to eliminate Covid-19, move to level 1

Public health expert Professor Michael Baker thinks that, from an epidemiological point of view, two 14-day incubation periods with no evidence of new cases would provide health experts with a "high level of certainty" the virus had been stamped out.

It could be earlier, going by onset dates of recent cases, which were almost always earlier than the reported date. Once elimination was confirmed, then the alert levels could relax, the University of Otago professor explained.

Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield hasn't put a timeframe on our stay in level 2

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#2486510 19-May-2020 18:08

Fred99:

Story on Stuff:

Coronavirus: We may need 28-days of no cases to eliminate Covid-19, move to level 1

Public health expert Professor Michael Baker thinks that, from an epidemiological point of view, two 14-day incubation periods with no evidence of new cases would provide health experts with a "high level of certainty" the virus had been stamped out.

It could be earlier, going by onset dates of recent cases, which were almost always earlier than the reported date. Once elimination was confirmed, then the alert levels could relax, the University of Otago professor explained.

Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield hasn't put a timeframe on our stay in level 2

This is the same criterion as the Queensland state premier is stating for opening their borders for inter-state travel.
For Queensland to open their border with another state, both states would have had to have no new Covid-19 cases for at least twenty-eight days [I'd guess an international returnee in quarantine might not count]. She says she thinks that'll be September.

On that basis - which seems pretty reasonable to me - a "trans-Tasman bubble" in time for the late-September / early-October school holidays seems just about possible, but a timetable that would be easily thrown off.

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#2486579 19-May-2020 18:46

As mentioned in the media, we expect a COVID-19 tracking app to be announced sometime tomorrow.

I have created a separate thread for the app only. Please read the topic before posting on that topic for now.

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#2486597 19-May-2020 19:16

PolicyGuy:

This is the same criterion as the Queensland state premier is stating for opening their borders for inter-state travel.

Then I can see a problem with air travel from Gold Coast Airport - half the runway is in NSW - the other in Qld, in different time zones 1/2 the year.

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#2486603 19-May-2020 19:34

The NZ Covide Tracer app is now available.

Discussion here.

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#2486759 19-May-2020 23:47

Interesting

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/05/world/worldometer-coronavirus-mystery/index.html

Most of the numbers I have checked are consistent with the official figures, though yes I have seen the odd discrepancy (perhaps a dozen or two spot checks at different times). Pretty good effort really given the amount of data and keeping it all up to date. Certainly handy as a quick check. Especially given the disparities in reporting between countries, which in general preclude exact comparison across multiple countries.

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#2486775 20-May-2020 02:03

Warning: Humour but contains the f-word so I've only posted a link: Covid19 humour from Twitter. Select "Show this thread" if you only get the first part of it.

Here's an alternative G-rated one:

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#2487335 20-May-2020 18:21

From a friend in the US:

This whole situation feels like the slowest moving zombie movie I’ve ever watched.

Like I’m holed up in my house waiting for zombies, and they are taking their sweet time getting here. I occasionally sneak out and go for a walk, but always on the lookout, don’t get to close to someone in case they are a zombie.

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#2487338 20-May-2020 18:35

neb: From a friend in the US:
This whole situation feels like the slowest moving zombie movie I’ve ever watched. Like I’m holed up in my house waiting for zombies, and they are taking their sweet time getting here. I occasionally sneak out and go for a walk, but always on the lookout, don’t get to close to someone in case they are a zombie.

Well there's no coherent messaging, no plan, no leadership, no compassion. It's been that way for centuries with "plagues" - when the worst possible monsters rule. That's the science of it - social science intertwined with epidemiology. They can't be separated.

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#2487396 20-May-2020 20:48

This is the kind of thing I'd expect for "evolution" of the C-19 virus. There's no evolutionary pressure for it to become less severe because it's not lethal enough initially (~98-99% survive), but because it isn't "particularly" contagious (R0 ~ 2.5 in a naive population) but transmissible in pre or asymptomatic people, any mutations that might help it evade what's being done (isolation/quarantine) will try to beat us.
(that said without anthropomorphism - the virus has no agenda or will to do anything, it's just some molecules doing what "nature" dictates). My guess would be other mutations should allow it to more easily infect and be transmitted to and from age groups that show superficial immunity - or at least infection without transmission.

Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.

Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to recover, as defined by a negative nucleic acid test, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.

Cases in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the northern region treating patients.

That's a report on Bloomberg - not exactly "science" - but an interesting report.

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#2488880 21-May-2020 18:53

Very little information about SAb Biotherapeutics using genetic engineering that allows cows to produce human antibodies that might work to attack the coronavirus in people.

Human-Cow Hybrids May Provide The Cure To Covid-19

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert

What could possibly go wrong?

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#2488958 21-May-2020 21:39

People gallivanting around the world during an active pandemic act all surprised when they can't re-enter, episode 13467888

I don't doubt that there are edge cases genuinely worthy of some sympathy and even exemptions but just from these some of these people's own-submitted stories alone, in many cases I have zero sympathy. Why should lots of others be put at risk just to do you a favour, especially after all the sacrifices already made?

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#2488981 21-May-2020 22:46

work in Africa https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/21/africa-coronavirus-successes-innovation-europe-us

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#2489057 22-May-2020 06:47

Fred99: There's no evolutionary pressure for it to become less severe because it's not lethal enough initially (~98-99% survive)

I think you're wrong there. From the (anthropomorphic) virus's point of view, it doesn't want to kill its host, it wants the host to go on spreading the virus as much as possible. So it wants to be less lethal. Hence the common cold virus is much more successful than covid-19, only killing a few hosts who have other risk factors. So the human population lives with the virus (in both senses) and practically speaking doesn't even try to wipe it out.

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#2489064 22-May-2020 07:15

There has been lots of chatter about flouters. AKL has a severe water issue, a ban on outside water use, such as cleaning cars and houses, yet we see many breaches by the authorities. Poor human nature, or at least deeply ingrained in some. #ownworstenemy

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