2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2497559 3-Jun-2020 18:43

tdgeek:

I thought there may have been a backlash on the film people. There has been in parts of the media. But they have tested negative, and quarantined, part of that is taxpayer cost (security) but they are paying (accommodation, food etc). Thats what Wellington and NZ needs. A few hundred million revenue, jobs, prestige for Kiwiland. Who knows, we may become a movie location bypassing issues with Covid-19 for a while.

That is what Australia thinks too, they think they can be a safe place for movie production. But they need to eliminate it first, and they are still getting a fair number of cases daily now. They seem to be following the trend of one of NZ covid models, where the long tail of covid cases doesn't end. Whereas NZs covid tail will hopefully be at an end. But a few hundred million revenue is small compared to the 100 billion it will cost NZ to eliminate it and keep it out, so our borders must be watertight.

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#2497560 3-Jun-2020 18:44

Australian states seem to think all is good despite still having new cases every day. I still think anyone supporting a "bubble" with Australia is deluded.

mattwnz

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#2497561 3-Jun-2020 18:48

tdgeek:

More good news, a lot of NZ hospitality can get back on track

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/06/coronavirus-alert-level-1-move-a-game-changer-for-hospitality-industry-expert.html

Once we move to level 1, how long will it be before there will be calls by different political parties to open the borders more. Already political pressure has likely meant that we are moving to level 1 sooner than was initially recommended by health experts. Some politicians already said that it wasn't realistic to eliminate the virus from NZ, and that travel must still be allowed. But we likely have eliminated it. If we live in the US or UK, the new normal will likely be wearing masks in public, and physical distancing and largely empty shops and restaurants etc . Even Oz is expecting the new normal to be quite restrictive compared to our level 1.

ockel

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#2497563 3-Jun-2020 18:52

freitasm:

Australian states seem to think all is good despite still having new cases every day. I still think anyone supporting a "bubble" with Australia is deluded.

There are some states that have gone longer than NZ with no cases. And some with no active cases. There is an argument for regional bubbles rather than the full country.

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#2497566 3-Jun-2020 19:01

frankv:

I'm wondering about the long series of zero new infections, and the people coming in from overseas. The zeros must mean that no-one coming in recently has had the infection.

You mean all the people despite the high unlikely-hood of flights even making that many thought wouldn't stop it and we were ZOMG doomed just like when they rushed back after the warning - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121422132/campervan-quarantine-camps-killed-off-after-costing-government-2-million

There was bugger all used/required. So few they fitted in smaller hotels.

Fred99

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#2497567 3-Jun-2020 19:03

Explanation of Aus restrictions here:

Australia’s coronavirus lockdown rules and restrictions explained: how far can I travel, and can I have people over?

(congrats to The Guardian - for putting that together)

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#2497606 3-Jun-2020 19:14

Oblivian:
frankv:

I'm wondering about the long series of zero new infections, and the people coming in from overseas. The zeros must mean that no-one coming in recently has had the infection.

You mean all the people despite the high unlikely-hood of flights even making that many thought wouldn't stop it and we were ZOMG doomed just like when they rushed back after the warning - https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121422132/campervan-quarantine-camps-killed-off-after-costing-government-2-million

There was bugger all used/required. So few they fitted in smaller hotels.

That explains the $29 campa deals.

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#2497665 3-Jun-2020 20:37

wellygary:

The most recent declared imported case was 10 May

Right... but the most recently imported case arrived on 25/4/20 https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details

But thanks for the passenger arrival numbers, except they're in PDF form, so hard to analyse. And the quarantine numbers.

But, eyeballing the arrivals, there's over 1,000 in April after 25th, and about 100/day since then. So I figure about 4,000 arrivals (give or take a 1,000). This is in the right ballpark, given 2760 in currently in isolation/quarantine and 206 exemptions. So you would expect 22 (+/- 5) infected passengers. Yet none at all. That's quite extraordinary.

I guess that back in April/May, infection rates in the US and Europe were quite a bit lower. And, as someone else pointed out the sick wouldn't be traveling. But, even so, I'm still surprised. Not a single infected but asymptomatic person arriving.

Sidestep

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#2497840 4-Jun-2020 06:58

frankv:

So, for every 176 people arriving here from Western Europe or the USA, I expect one case of covid-19 (maybe more if infections spread in the aircraft) to be found. Unless people coming here are unrepresentative, and have a lower incidence of the disease?

That's right, people who would travel to NZ are a generally unrepresentative sample.

The city I'm in, for example, of 1.4 million inhabitants, has just under 5,000 infections total - So about 1 in 280 of the city residents is infected?

Nope - over 4500 have already recovered, 50 more are in hospital, about 120 (officially) have died (though certainly under-reported in the elderly).
Just over 300 people are currently infected, quarantined or self-quarantining and recovering outside hospital.

So potentially one in every 4,666 inhabitants is infected and could fly to NZ?

Nope - the two largest sources of those total numbers - and the currently infected - by far, are/were elderly people in care homes, and low paid workers.

Nearly three-quarters of the total cases are people like the employees of a local Cargill Meat-packing plant.
Of 2,000 workers, nearly 1,000 got infected. Many were in Canada on work visas (Temporary Foreign Workers). TFW's are basically indentured labour.. they infected a further 500, many of whom, also TFW's, worked in Care homes (often doing multiple shifts in different facilities).

These people, working minimum wage (and remitting much of that home) living in crowded, substandard accommodation, aren't going to be flying to NZ for a holiday.
Neither are the very elderly they infected in Care Facilities.

Of the remainder, multiple cases came from single gatherings, church meetings and the like. Many of these were new immigrants, people who's whole social network was that church or community group, who didn't have the luxury of a detached, single family home to isolate in.

My wife, kids and I live in a relatively affluent part of a reasonably wealthy, young, (and very white) city.
Less than 20% of the city population is a visible minority, the median age is 37. Our suburban losses have been confined to our aged parents in care homes (we lost my F.I.L, a neighbour lost her Dad), and the occasional infection of a health-care worker - in my extended circle I know of a Doctor who was infected.

Even in a wealthy, modern city with top-end healthcare, the virus has exposed, infected, and killed an underclass - of poor immigrants and the very elderly they cared for.
Once you knock all those out you're down to very low numbers.

You could pick up the two (wealthier) Western Quadrants of the city, a half-million people, fly them to NZ and find maybe 5-10 infected.

The biggest risk - in this demographic - is likely health workers. I'm sure they are red-flagged in NZ.

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#2497845 4-Jun-2020 07:14

ockel:

tdgeek:

I thought there may have been a backlash on the film people. There has been in parts of the media. But they have tested negative, and quarantined, part of that is taxpayer cost (security) but they are paying (accommodation, food etc). Thats what Wellington and NZ needs. A few hundred million revenue, jobs, prestige for Kiwiland. Who knows, we may become a movie location bypassing issues with Covid-19 for a while.

Yes its good for the film industry but its the hypocritical exception to the rule. Take the fishing boat that needs engineering repairs in Picton - the crew have been at sea for months, the only port they have been is American Samoa (which has had no cases of Covid) and despite the request to dock for repairs (with associated quarantine) they have been refused. Thats millions of dollars of work that has been denied to the local economy. Without applying common sense or consistency. Its the typical endorsement of how this crisis has been managed - poorly.

Edit: link added

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/content/tvnz/onenews/story/2020/06/02/dozens-of-engineering-jobs-at-risk-with-foreign-ships-unable-to.html

A complaint for the sake of it. Im sure there are huge numbers that want to come here, I guess we can let them all in... . If the film isnt worth the exception, just say so.

tdgeek

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#2497847 4-Jun-2020 07:16

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

I thought there may have been a backlash on the film people. There has been in parts of the media. But they have tested negative, and quarantined, part of that is taxpayer cost (security) but they are paying (accommodation, food etc). Thats what Wellington and NZ needs. A few hundred million revenue, jobs, prestige for Kiwiland. Who knows, we may become a movie location bypassing issues with Covid-19 for a while.

That is what Australia thinks too, they think they can be a safe place for movie production. But they need to eliminate it first, and they are still getting a fair number of cases daily now. They seem to be following the trend of one of NZ covid models, where the long tail of covid cases doesn't end. Whereas NZs covid tail will hopefully be at an end. But a few hundred million revenue is small compared to the 100 billion it will cost NZ to eliminate it and keep it out, so our borders must be watertight.

They all tested negative and will be quarantined. Watertight for how long?

tdgeek

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#2497848 4-Jun-2020 07:21

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

More good news, a lot of NZ hospitality can get back on track

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2020/06/coronavirus-alert-level-1-move-a-game-changer-for-hospitality-industry-expert.html

Once we move to level 1, how long will it be before there will be calls by different political parties to open the borders more. Already political pressure has likely meant that we are moving to level 1 sooner than was initially recommended by health experts. Some politicians already said that it wasn't realistic to eliminate the virus from NZ, and that travel must still be allowed. But we likely have eliminated it. If we live in the US or UK, the new normal will likely be wearing masks in public, and physical distancing and largely empty shops and restaurants etc . Even Oz is expecting the new normal to be quite restrictive compared to our level 1.

Ill give up posting good news. Personally I thought it was good news that hospitality can now get back to normal, but it seems thats not good news after all?

Does it matter if we move to level 1 a bit sooner? Its been stated why, we are ahead of the recommendation status.

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#2497850 4-Jun-2020 07:41

tdgeek:
ockel:

Yes its good for the film industry but its the hypocritical exception to the rule. Take the fishing boat that needs engineering repairs in Picton - the crew have been at sea for months, the only port they have been is American Samoa (which has had no cases of Covid) and despite the request to dock for repairs (with associated quarantine) they have been refused. Thats millions of dollars of work that has been denied to the local economy. Without applying common sense or consistency. Its the typical endorsement of how this crisis has been managed - poorly.

Edit: link added

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/content/tvnz/onenews/story/2020/06/02/dozens-of-engineering-jobs-at-risk-with-foreign-ships-unable-to.html

A complaint for the sake of it. Im sure there are huge numbers that want to come here, I guess we can let them all in... . If the film isnt worth the exception, just say so.

I'm sure the engineers losing their jobs view it as a complaint for the sake of it.

What is the logic in allowing one group over the other? It doesn't appear to be risk.

tdgeek

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#2497851 4-Jun-2020 07:52

Handle9:

I'm sure the engineers losing their jobs view it as a complaint for the sake of it.

What is the logic in allowing one group over the other? It doesn't appear to be risk.

Economic boost to Wellington and NZ and employment. And more to come if NZ is seen as a safe haven, the economy is now the priority. Some here advocate watertight borders for a long period, some see Level 1 as too soon, whatever anyone says its wrong. Its all bad news stories now, a bit of glass half full wont do any harm at times

MileHighKiwi

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#2497852 4-Jun-2020 07:56

mattwnz: Already political pressure has likely meant that we are moving to level 1 sooner than was initially recommended by health experts.

They have said the whole time that the response will be data led. It's now reported in a leaked cabinet paper the criteria for L1 is 28 days of no CT, but Bloomfield said it's actually been almost two months since the last CT case.

It's time for level 1.

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