2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2508336 19-Jun-2020 19:00

DS248:

DS248: ...

Part of the explanation for (supposedly) no imported cases in NZ in the month to 15 June is very likely lack of testing. Forty three of the 55 imported cases arriving in Hong Kong in the last month were asymptomatic at time of confirmation. Another factor also being that many imports to NZ will have come from AU, as has already been mentioned.

Recent data show that the majority (85/96) of asymptomatic confirmed cases transferred from the Diamond Princess to a hospital in Japan remained asymptomatic throughout the time they were quarantined in the hospital (Sakurai et al 2020, Letter to the Editor, NEJM 12 June).

Relevant point is that asymptomatic (/pre-symptomatic) arrivals should also be treated as potentially infected, not just people with 'covid-like' symptoms (many of whom may just have a cold or flu). Mind you, good to keep cold/flu quarantined also.

==

In regard to concerns (speculation) that significant transmission is unlikely from true asymptomatic cases, this recent research potentially suggests otherwise?

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0965-6

" ... The asymptomatic group had a significantly longer duration of viral shedding than the symptomatic group."

Precautionary principle would suggest treating such cases as potentially contagious until there is well founded research showing otherwise. Too much at stake to rely on speculation or 'gut feeling'.

Plus of course, will not initially be able to differentiate asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic cases, and there is clear evidence of pre-symptomatic transmission.

Yep. This week had caused a big catchup on testing, that can only do good

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#2508337 19-Jun-2020 19:03

tdgeek:

Ive been criticised for being positive here. Its worked out. These latest issues bother me, but the work isn't caving in.

It was a stuff up, but at least they've controlled it, are learning from it and taking action. I think of it like software development, you can't make it 100% user proof, people will find ways of breaking your code - but have a way of limiting the effects of that failure and fix the problem.

I'm with you, I think NZers have done an amazing job and I'm proud of our achievement. In hindsight some things could have been done better but you've got to try to make the best decision that you can at the time. The morons who have broken the rules have luckily had a limited effect on the outcome, one of the things I'm disappointed about is there weren't harsher penalties. My hope is that the ones who are refusing the test and have to stay the extra 14 days get charged for their accommodation costs, and I think they'll probably also be the ones who refuse the vaccine unfortunately.

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#2508340 19-Jun-2020 19:07

tdgeek:
DS248:

?

He has been glass empty forever. Its fine to be negative if you truly believe that, but its not fine to whinge. Join the discussion, or go to www.conspiracy.com

Ive been criticised for being positive here. Its worked out. These latest issues bother me, but the work isn't caving in.

I can't believe MoH are inept, nor the Police nor the Military, all of whom are part of this fail. Has the world ended? No. On the surface, how hard can it be to lock up quarantines, or control managed isolation? Obviously it's hard. Notable in todays video was that "people need to take responsibilty" "there will be consequences" Which is to say that the powers that be cannot control everybody. So there is not enough people to babysit the idiots. The latter can and will cause more issues but as we cannot physical control them all, they will be subject to a $4000 fine and I think 6 months prison. Id like also to suggest that if you play up, you restart the 14 days.

The conclusion is we cannot staff enough people to manage/force everyone to comply.

As someone here has suggested why don't we treat them all as quarantines? Lock them all up, make it 100% effective. There are worse things that being in a hotel for 14 days

Wow that's so many words. I merely asked a legit, simple, yes no question

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#2508345 19-Jun-2020 19:19

dejadeadnz:

Equally, for any discussion to be meaningful, we hardly need people just playing cheering squad for the establishment.

Increased penalties for breaching isolation rules

These increases are pathetic. There should be a maximum penalty of at least a year and a presumption of imprisonment. Fines just don't deter some of the entitled upper class types nor the idiots who can't afford to pay it in full but will be drip-feeding it at $10 a week.

I agree re punishment. It seems a cop out, telling us that they cannot guarantee compliance. I can guarantee compliance, its a key. If you will comply, my key is no issue

As to playing cheerful for the establishment, up to you to voice that, thats your opinion. Not all of us are frothing, we just want a good result.

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#2508349 19-Jun-2020 19:34

In regards to "punishment" it became apparent today from the media conference the rules of quarantine will be clear and the consequences clear

How I read that is that those in quarantine until Tues were likely not provided effective rules nor told the formal consequences

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#2508519 19-Jun-2020 22:35

Another potential road block in the road to rapid vaccine deployment.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/11/business/vaccine-glass-vials-coronavirus/index.html

" ... Strategic National Stockpile has only 2% of the 650 million to 850 million needles and syringes needed and that officials aren't addressing the global shortage of glass vials.
It could take up to two years to produce enough vials for US vaccine needs, ..."

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#2508523 19-Jun-2020 23:01

A staggering catalogue of alleged isolation stuff ups

Somehow I just don't think all these people are just getting together to lie and stick it to St Bloomfield.

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#2508524 19-Jun-2020 23:11

dejadeadnz:

A staggering catalogue of alleged isolation stuff ups

Somehow I just don't think all these people are just getting together to lie and stick it to St Bloomfield.

sorry i didnt read about stuff ups , what i got from that article was the staff trying to do there best and a bunch of ungrateful people going out of their way to complain and to be dickheads, personally i would lock everyone in there rooms for 14 days and let them out when they have a negative test ,

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2508527 19-Jun-2020 23:53

You didn't read it very closely then.

She said individuals at varying points of isolation were mixing, and social distancing protocols haven't been consistently enforced or adhered to.

...

A "massive problem" at the hotel has come to light, with several people refusing to be tested for Covid-19. One person McEwan spoke to was doing so because the test impinges on her human rights.

"Some are even refusing to have their temperatures taken. Apparently, multiple people who are due to be released this weekend are refusing to have the Covid test done," McEwan said.

One person McEwan spoke to was doing so because the test impinges on her human rights.

...

McEwan felt there had been "a breakdown" in facility management - a viewpoint shared by Phelan.

"It has become clear that the policies and procedures in place regarding testing are not down to negligence at a facility level, but a direct order from the Ministry of Health itself.

Phelan believed the purpose of managed isolation had become "lost in translation" with too much focus on wellbeing.

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#2508572 20-Jun-2020 09:19

Her "human rights" are affecting my right to live.

Enough with this non-sense. That's why health laws exist.

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#2508576 20-Jun-2020 09:29

Ironic that her human rights for a few seconds for the test, will be offset by another 14 days. Lets hope she gets a sniffle on day 27 and refuses again.

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#2508583 20-Jun-2020 09:37

"Nearly 1,500 deaths in one day: UK ministers accused of downplaying Covid-19 peak"

Ministers have been accused of playing down the gravity of the coronavirus pandemic after it emerged that more than 1,000 people died every day in the UK for 22 consecutive days – in stark contrast with daily tolls announced by the government.

According to an analysis of official figures, the darkest day came on 8 April as the country prepared for Easter under lockdown, when a record 1,445 people died from Covid-19 in 24 hours.

The figures – encompassing deaths in hospitals, care homes and private residences – are far higher than the numbers announced by ministers during that period at the daily Downing Street briefings, as the pandemic peaked faster than forecast.

Critics say ministers should have more clearly underlined that the reported death tolls were underestimates of the true tallies as they only counted deaths in hospitals after positive Covid-19 tests, excluding thousands who died in care homes.

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#2508591 20-Jun-2020 10:03

Oh the against my human rights to get temperature or tested.
We certainly don't need these people even getting on the plane.

What would the conditions and penalties in the countries they are coming from for such refusals for reasonable measures.

Hell we are even paying the bill for you !

Before people get on the plane and before they cross the immigration boarder we have a lot more ability to elicit co-operation.
Deportation maybe off the table as Australia would not want them back, but if its possible then get tested or deported perhaps.

Before boarding perhaps have everyone sign a declaration of co-operation with quarantine.
While to a degree a legal document , really its more to make it something people will more likely read as they are signing it as statutory declaration.
Including an assurance to pay all isolation/quarantine costs with amount spelled out for 14 or 28 days in big type.
Even better with a large bond prepaid for the quarantine/isolation costs, to be refunded upon conclusion.
Predicated to agreeing to testing etc otherwise you don't get on the plane in the first place.

Any later refusal, there goes your bond and you get a bill for all costs of the 28 days of isolation, including transfer to a much less nice stricter isolation facility for your and our protection.

We are by nature nice and kind, and for the 99% this is all good, but the 1% seem to be growing in self entitlement.

Pandering to this 1% needs to stop.

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#2508597 20-Jun-2020 10:16

I find it somewhat disconcerting that people keep focusing on these selfish and idiotic individuals. Sure, their attitude and behaviour is contemptible but honestly human nature sucks. Why is anyone surprised? There should have been processes to protect the normal majority from them from the outset. The failure for this to occur properly is the real scandal, not the utter predictability of people being stupid.

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#2508600 20-Jun-2020 10:30

"COVID-19: Straight Answers from Top Epidemiologist Who Predicted the Pandemic" - a bit US-centric but interesting:

Here are the highlights of our conversation. But if you really want to understand this disease, read the whole interview. This disease may be the biggest event of our lifetimes.

3 months ago, COVID-19 was not even in the top 75 causes of death in this country. Much of the last month, it was the #1 cause of death in this country. This is more remarkable than the 1918 Flu pandemic.
There is no scientific indication Covid-19 will disappear of its own accord.
If you’re under age 55, obesity is the #1 risk factor. So, eating the right diet, getting physical activity, and managing stress are some of the most important things you can do to protect yourself from the disease.
One of the best things we can do for our aging parents is to get them out into the fresh air, while maintaining physical (not social) distancing.
Wearing a cloth mask does not protect you much if you’re in close contact with someone who is COVID-19 contagious. It may give you 20 minutes, instead of 10, to avoid contracting the disease.
We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% – 70% of Americans. That’s around 200 million Americans.
We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.
There is no guarantee of an effective vaccination and even if we find one, it may only give short term protection.
Speeding a vaccination into production carries its own risks.
The darkest days are still ahead of us. We need moral leadership, the command leadership that doesn’t minimize what’s before us but allows everyone to see that we’re going to get through it.

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