2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2509280 21-Jun-2020 18:07

mattwnz:

Why are we suddenly getting a far larger number of new cases?

Unfortunately, the answer seems to be that we simply weren't testing. i.e. we HAD been getting the same number of cases but we screwed up and let them in and then out of isolation.

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#2509284 21-Jun-2020 18:16

I'd like to thank you Kiwis for your support and cooperation! :-)

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

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#2509286 21-Jun-2020 18:26

Meanwhile in the USA Mr Trump tells his officials to do less testing and that way they will have less COVID-19 cases. If I hadn't watched him say this I would not have believed he would say it. Stupidity know no bounds.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

GV27

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#2509293 21-Jun-2020 18:46

duckDecoy:

mattwnz:

Why are we suddenly getting a far larger number of new cases?

Unfortunately, the answer seems to be that we simply weren't testing. i.e. we HAD been getting the same number of cases but we screwed up and let them in and then out of isolation.

Reading around the edges, this is a logical assumption, but I'd like to see that scenario put to Bloomfield.

I'd also like to see him asked about the current levels of community testing (e.g. how much testing is being done in the wider community, not the recent arrivals) so we can have some comfort that we will pick it up if it has gotten out there again.

tdgeek

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#2509294 21-Jun-2020 18:52

GV27:

Reading around the edges, this is a logical assumption, but I'd like to see that scenario put to Bloomfield.

I'd also like to see him asked about the current levels of community testing (e.g. how much testing is being done in the wider community, not the recent arrivals) so we can have some comfort that we will pick it up if it has gotten out there again.

Im not sure you can draw a conclusion there. Im sure sentinel testing is low. People feel great, the virus "isn't here" why get a test? The paranoid the other day flooded the test centres, but thats a different need. People arent unwell, so few get a test. If its as out there we would know, by a sentinel test or a physician initiated one. I would hope all physicians in GP practices send all of the possibles to a test. You have the flu, here's some pills, you must get a test.

GV27

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#2509298 21-Jun-2020 19:03

tdgeek:

If its as out there we would know, by a sentinel test or a physician initiated one.

If it's out there asymptomatically, then by the time someone who can afford to see a doctor and who can get time off work to get a referral for a test and can go get one, it could get a lot further than we think before we know it.

All the talk has been around two week cycles. If testing was slack when those women left and people from that time frame got out without being tested, then a positive person would surely take a couple of weeks to generate an effect big enough to be picked up by reduced sentinel testing.

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tdgeek

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#2509303 21-Jun-2020 19:21

GV27:

If it's out there asymptomatically, then by the time someone who can afford to see a doctor and who can get time off work to get a referral for a test and can go get one, it could get a lot further than we think before we know it.

All the talk has been around two week cycles. If testing was slack when those women left and people from that time frame got out without being tested, then a positive person would surely take a couple of weeks to generate an effect big enough to be picked up by reduced sentinel testing.

Not everyone is poor, and has issues getting time off to see the doctor. If it was out there and spreading, we would know. You can still get tested, but not many see a need to do that as they don't have symptoms, which is what you would expect. The management by Police, Military and MOh of the centres has been poor, it didn't just start being poor 14 days ago, surely? Its been poor all the time. The centres are full now due to the rapidly growing arrival numbers, all of which is expected, and we got 5 cases from hotspots. As expected. The growing number of arrivals and that they can come from anywhere where I "assume" previously was more likely to be mainly from Australia will cause more cases. This is expected. leaking from the centres is obviously a problem

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#2509306 21-Jun-2020 19:41

rotavegas now a quarantine center

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12341580

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#2509312 21-Jun-2020 20:10

Cancer diagnosis delayed :(

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300037886/ministrys-handling-of-cancer-diagnosis-during-lockdown-a-disgrace-top-oncologist-says

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#2509313 21-Jun-2020 20:26

GV27:

duckDecoy:

Unfortunately, the answer seems to be that we simply weren't testing. i.e. we HAD been getting the same number of cases but we screwed up and let them in and then out of isolation.

Reading around the edges, this is a logical assumption, but I'd like to see that scenario put to Bloomfield.

I'd also like to see him asked about the current levels of community testing (e.g. how much testing is being done in the wider community, not the recent arrivals) so we can have some comfort that we will pick it up if it has gotten out there again.

There isn't really a need to put that to him because it's a known - we only started testing international arrivals on Tuesday 9th June once we moved to level 1, and based off all the media stories so far it would seem a significant percentage of people who have arrived since that date had not had the required tests on the 3rd day (and the 12th day is only around now).

In some ways we took the Trump approach - if you don't test you won't know how many people are positive. The fact we're getting people testing positive now is completely normal, and to be completely honest I'd be very worried if we weren't getting at least some positive tests when people are coming from countries where the virus is still spreading.

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#2509315 21-Jun-2020 20:34

tdgeek:
mattwnz:

But why suddenly so many cases in just a few days? It has now got the stage we we are now expecting new cases coming in. I wonder if we shouldn't be looking at requiring self isolation before they fly, in addition to the 14 days in NZ. They require this for people flying to pacific islands already, to reduce the risk. I now don't think NZ is safe enough for a pacific bubble, beucase we don't know what effects these issues at the border have had yet.

News today say 290 coming in tomorrow and 590 Tuesday. Emirates is starting shortly. Clearly, Level 1 has ramped up Kiwis coming home. Expected.

Do we have the capacity to manage this big increase safely? I understand the auditing of the hotels doesn’t even start until next month

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GV27

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#2509316 21-Jun-2020 20:36

sbiddle:

There isn't really a need to put that to him because it's a known - we only started testing international arrivals on Tuesday 9th June once we moved to level 1, and based off all the media stories so far it would seem a significant percentage of people who have arrived since that date had not had the required tests on the 3rd day (and the 12th day is only around now).

In some ways we took the Trump approach - if you don't test you won't know how many people are positive. The fact we're getting people testing positive now is completely normal, and to be completely honest I'd be very worried if we weren't getting at least some positive tests when people are coming from countries where the virus is still spreading.

That's the bit I want to know. I think he has remarked that he isn't concerned by it, but clearly what he thought was happening and what was happening are two very different things.

tdgeek

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#2509320 21-Jun-2020 21:02

mattwnz:

Do we have the capacity to manage this big increase safely? I understand the auditing of the hotels doesn’t even start until next month

Its full so using Rotorua, and elsewhere. Over 4200 in place now I guess that will grow and will settle on a 14 day cycle until the incoming ease back. Doesnt matter where they go as long as they are secure and tested Day 3 and Day 13. Then imported cases are a non issue for us. If they remain out of general circulation, we will be fine. All this is expected, but for some reason some seem to think its already eliminated, so problem solved, now its back. No idea why.

tdgeek

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#2509321 21-Jun-2020 21:06

GV27:

That's the bit I want to know. I think he has remarked that he isn't concerned by it, but clearly what he thought was happening and what was happening are two very different things.

As long as Day 12 was done, I guess the covers missing Day 3. What he thought was happening as what he instructed to happen, ask the Police and Military why it wasn't. That seemed to be when the PM took that over, she decided the Police and Bush own that function leaving MoH out of it.

sbiddle

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#2509322 21-Jun-2020 21:10

The increases of people arriving aren't really that big number wise, but it does hit the limit of available hotels in Auckland.

Just looking at the data April had 6,385 arrivals, May had 5,577 arrivals and hit 4,926 for June on Thursday 18th (last day stats are currently showing).

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