2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2431976 3-Mar-2020 16:34

Well looks like all you geekzoners from Tauranga have heeded my information about hand washing, WELL DONE, as I have just returned from doing my Gold Card Tuesday Countdown Fraser Cove shopping and no hand sanitiser and Warehouse Fraser Cove neither. Warehouse stated that they received double full shipment yesterday and all sold out this morning. No sanitiser at any stores apparently, with no time table for next delivery at either company locations.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

tdgeek

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#2431988 3-Mar-2020 17:00

How can this be?

Today, she (Jacinda Adern) told Morning Report there's very clear criteria for why the travel restrictions are for China and Iran only.

"The vast majority of cases are still coming out of there," she said.

Yet at CNN SK has 4800 cases and 24 deaths.

Iran now has 978 cases and 54 deaths

Italy now has 1,694 cases and 34 deaths

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/02/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-update-intl-hnk/index.html

MikeB4

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#2431989 3-Mar-2020 17:03

tdgeek:

How can this be?

Today, she (Jacinda Adern) told Morning Report there's very clear criteria for why the travel restrictions are for China and Iran only.

"The vast majority of cases are still coming out of there," she said.

Yet at CNN SK has 4800 cases and 24 deaths.

Iran now has 978 cases and 54 deaths

Italy now has 1,694 cases and 34 deaths

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/02/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-update-intl-hnk/index.html

The governments decision making and communication on this matter is confused and inconsistent. It is a worry.

tdgeek

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#2431991 3-Mar-2020 17:07

It is. Are they making these calls, or is the Ministry of Health Pandemic document part of this?

Strikes me that they are playing it cool, so if the virus doesn't do much here, its a win. If it ramps up, its a loss. Id rather not gamble.

Fred99

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#2431993 3-Mar-2020 17:15

One point of difference about Korea, they've gone all out to contact trace and the cases they have are centred on a few large outbreaks - in the cult etc.

It's apparently totally out of control in Iran - they've probably got tens of thousands infected, they don't know where or how or for how long - they've got a worst case scenario developing.

tdgeek:

"The vast majority of cases are still coming out of there," she said.

That's probably true - there are cases all over the world popping up where the infection was acquired in Iran. I don't know if there's a tally of "imported cases" and origin - but they're probably at the top of the list.

tdgeek

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#2431997 3-Mar-2020 17:29

Fair call. We seem to be mirroring Australia, or perhaps we are all following WHO to the letter? I just feel there is room to be more cautious. We dont have a standard virus outbreak to go by, there is no standard outbreak, and if many seem to feel this could get bad, we dont need to stick rigidly to any supposed document, no matter who wrote it.

Scott3

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#2432002 3-Mar-2020 17:43

tdgeek:

Fair call. We seem to be mirroring Australia, or perhaps we are all following WHO to the letter? I just feel there is room to be more cautious. We dont have a standard virus outbreak to go by, there is no standard outbreak, and if many seem to feel this could get bad, we dont need to stick rigidly to any supposed document, no matter who wrote it.

WHO opposed travel any restrictions.

Yeah, we seem to be shadowing the USA & Aust. There is definitively room to be more aggressive to protect our population.

I am a bit shocked at the statements saying our health system is ready for covid-19. We aren't even ready for a bad seasonal flu season, and this strain is very demanding on hospital resources.

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Fred99

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#2432003 3-Mar-2020 17:43

Good news - that the two "highly suspicious" cases in NZ tested negative.

This is a kind of bad news case - raises some questions:

Chinese citizen, barred from entering Aus directly - stays 14 days in Dubai, arrive in Brisbane on 23 Feb, feels unwell on 25th, tests positive today.

So that's at least a 16 day incubation - unless he picked it up in Dubai.

Scott3

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#2432006 3-Mar-2020 17:55

There has been evidence around for a while of a wide variety on incubation times.

https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/news/coronavirus-incubation-period-27-days/

I don't know the credibility of the above source, but it quotes a 27 day incubation.

This, combined with widespread antidotes of ineffective arrivals screening for people with symptoms is quite worrying.

We have already failed at step 1 of our national pandemic plan "Keep it out"....

mattwnz

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#2432014 3-Mar-2020 18:21

Plus the person who did test positive had two tests that were negative. So I am not sure how accurate the testing is anyway. That mixed with the case overseas where someone tested positive for it after already recovering from it, and how a pet also tested positive for it, so they are also quarantining pets of those people who have it. I think we should be stopping it at the border, as there is still a lot we don't know about it. Samoa IMO have the right idea. We can't control incoming people who may or may not have it, as it is almost impossible to know if someone has it or not at the border until possibly weeks down the track. I can't understand why we aren't at least quarantining people coming in from SK, like we did for those who were airlifted out of China.

We have to remember that at one stage we were also trying to stop H1N1 flue from entering the country. But that didn't prove to be any worse than normal flue, and it wasn't contained, and we now have that as an annual flu.

Fred99

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#2432027 3-Mar-2020 18:44

The problem with "proving" the incubation period is longer is that you'd have to prove a negative - that the person wasn't exposed to a second source of infection after the confirmed earlier suspected point of infection.

So it was swept aside based on assumption that the people "must have" had a later exposure - even though they can't trace that.

I guess their Occam's razor works differently than mine.

mattwnz

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#2432030 3-Mar-2020 18:53

I would have thought that if they can't prove either way, they would verge of the side of caution. Better to be safe than sorry. It is almost impossible to know either way. But if they did get is via a community transmission in Dubai, then that is another problem.

mattwnz

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#2432051 3-Mar-2020 20:02

Interesting to see on the news about the US, and they think it has silently been spreading for weeks, and the cases are now appearing in the community. This is what makes this virus different, because you an have it for weeks before you show signs of illness.

I know a lot of people who are new planning on getting the flu injection who previously never believed in it. But that isn't available for some time, and I suspect they will have shortages, as they did last year. Flu injections can help to reduce the spread for seasonal flues including H1N1, as well as helping to prevent people getting it, so it is probably a good thing that more people are planning on getting it .

dimsim

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#2432071 3-Mar-2020 20:31

We really need a way to include some form of "vote bot" into a post.

If we could Id love to know how many would vote yes or no to the question "Do you think our Govt is doing enough to mitigate our Corona Virus risk?"

The reason I ask is around this voluntary registration etc...it seems really mickey mouse and like protection on the cheap.

My assumption was backed up yesterday by a friend returning from Northern Italy after having been there for 10 days and in Venice during the outbreak - They entered into NZ, were only given a leaflet then left to go on their own way to voluntary isolation - no temperature scanning or any other form of screening.

Jacinda seems to think that our border officials are enough of a screening measure.. surely they are trained for customs duties and not health screening?

I guess like everyone else I'll just have watch this space, but personally i think we could at least be temperature scanning arriving visitors - some coming in might not even know they have an elevated temperature

dogstar001

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#2432075 3-Mar-2020 20:42

mattwnz:
Interesting to see on the news about the US, and they think it has silently been spreading for weeks, and the cases are now appearing in the community. This is what makes this virus different, because you an have it for weeks before you show signs of illness.

I know a lot of people who are new planning on getting the flu injection who previously never believed in it. But that isn't available for some time, and I suspect they will have shortages, as they did last year. Flu injections can help to reduce the spread for seasonal flues including H1N1, as well as helping to prevent people getting it, so it is probably a good thing that more people are planning on getting it .

What I think makes this virus difficult to manage is

1) unusually long incubation period of about 2 weeks
2) highly contagious
3) not particularly harmful to young healthy people. Young people often have no or mild symptons & a death rate of .2%. Further I imagine this .2% often had some sort of existing condition which caused their death. The death rate of young healthy people probably close to 0.

4) devastating on the elderly. 15% of those over 80 die. About half end up in hospital

This means the virus can basically use young people as carriers. While causing loss of life once affecting the elderly.

In the event of an outbreak which you can't stamp out. you really will have no choice but to isolate the elderly from everyone else while letting the virus run its course in society. I can't see this being effective

I still believe the most effective option would have been to stop the virus coming in, in the 1st place. But this isn't going to happen.

I guess IMHO it is better for our country to isolate ourselves from everyone else as opposed to isolating different groups internally from each other

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