2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2526653 21-Jul-2020 16:51

KrazyKid:

Re Testing:

There is no point doing random street tests - the chance of a positive is way to low to make it worthwhile.

We need to test the right areas.
Eg anyone symptomatic presenting at doctors, All border and MIQ hotel staff, Maybe hospital staff and other high contact/risk areas.
And regular tests as well - cycle through and repeat test every month or something.
Plus out of cycle tests if symptomatic (Which I suspect the will do already)

But like others said, you can't make people take the test.

We need to educate the public and get the doctors to push the testing when people present.

The panic testing in Auckland a few weeks ago was to much, but now it is way to low.

I think the numbers that refuse a test will be small. But why would someone refuse when they can get their doctors bill paid for as well. I wouldn't mind something being poked up my nose is exchange for the $50 doctors consultation fee.

The fact is that the symptoms of this virus, are the same symptoms as colds and flu, which many people now seem to have. Most people don't go to the doctor when they have a cold or the flu unless it is very bad. Doctors are apparently currently confused as to who they should be testing, due to these new requirements, according to a previous post I made on this.

1101

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#2526656 21-Jul-2020 16:55

KrazyKid:

But like others said, you can't make people take the test.

Isnt that the problem.
If this is a major health crisis , or if it becomes one, then we should be able to require testing by law , where deemed needed .

What happens next time, with a even more deadly virus. Do we also say you can can refuse testing .
If this was (say) a TB epidemic or worse , would we still say you have the right not to be tested .

If its a public health issue, things need to be made compulsory , such as testing where required and guaranteening .
The safety of the masses allways needs to come before the perceived rights of the very few.

The anti-vaxers will be coming out of the woodwork soon , as soon as vaccines are available . :-0

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#2526667 21-Jul-2020 17:26

mattwnz:

The fact is that the symptoms of this virus, are the same symptoms as colds and flu, which many people now seem to have.

You keep saying that as if it is a fact. Fluetracker shows something completely different.

This is the report for the week ending 12 July.

Source: Fluetracking NZ

Please provide proof of your "many people seem to have cold and flu" or stop saying it.

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#2526669 21-Jul-2020 17:27

Handle9: Give it up. You weren't presenting facts you were presenting strawmen.

Facts are that another thousand people are loosing their jobs with considerably more reducing their hours at the Warehouse.

And isn't the above a strawman response? As you cannot say with any degree of certainty that not locking down and undoubtedly higher death rates wouldn't have had a far more significant impact on the economy.

If we compare NZ to UAE, where the population is approximately double, it has massive wealth due to oil means that tourism / travel was the only real industry impacted of there.

https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/04/united-arab-emirates-government-and-institution-measures-in-response-to-covid.html

UAE has also passed 50k infections and 340 deaths in comparison to NZs 1555 / 22:

https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/coronavirus-uae-records-271-new-cases-as-352-patients-recover-1.1051904

Granted UAE have been performing around 30k tests per day with positive rate of 1% which is very good news however it only takes a few super spreaders.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates

Handle9: It is a fact that the South Auckland Christian foodbank has had demand rise by 100% on pre Covid levels.

Your opinion isn't a fact, neither is mine.

So a few facts and comparisons between NZ and UAE:

- NZ does not have any restrictions on travel anywhere in the country since the 9th of June at any time of the day or night. UAE still has a curfew since 24 April from 10pm-6am and requires permits and swabs depending on where you travel.

- NZ had it's last reported community infection back on the 1st May, I would presume many of the 271 new cases reported yesterday were from community transmission in UAE.

- NZ has 27 active cases, all from overseas travel and all in managed isolation, the 8k or so Active cases in UAE I would presume are all in Isolation? https://www.dha.gov.ae/en/Covid19/Pages/Isolation.aspx

- UAE has almost twice the GDP of NZ, so even with all that additional money and standard of living the infection and death rates are at least 15x larger for infections and 8x larger for deaths per captia for the UAE.

- NZs debt to GDP is sitting around 50%, which is a lot better than many other developed countries especially those in the EU or the USA. https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/14/new-zealand-s-debt-to-soar-to-counter-covid-19-europe-s-will-too

Do you dispute those facts or are they just my opinion?

My opinion is that the long term impact of COVID won't be seen for a while as worldwide I still believe the true infection rates and long term impacts won't be known for at least 12-18 months. Perhaps the long term impacts from the virus aren't as bad as has been predicted, but if any of the international reports are as bad as some have said having the virus means you are not guaranteed to have livelong immunity to reinfection and also others have had permanent health damage to the lungs or other vital organs.

As I again cannot see any good outcomes for any countries and NZ has had an incredibly well managed government response with thankfully few hiccups that were not fatal flaws especially in comparison to other first world countries and lucky that NZ only started getting infections later than Italy so we had time to base decisions on other countries responses.

Also my opinion is that had we had National in power we would have been in a far worse situation most likely similar to how Australia is right now with ongoing regional lockdowns and far higher infections and mortality. I would love to see any reasoned arguments to change my mind that National could have handled this better.

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#2526671 21-Jul-2020 17:38

BarTender:

And isn't the above a strawman response? As you cannot say with any degree of certainty that not locking down and undoubtedly higher death rates wouldn't have had a far more significant impact on the economy.

If we compare NZ to UAE, where the population is approximately double, it has massive wealth due to oil means that tourism / travel was the only real industry impacted of there.

https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2020/04/united-arab-emirates-government-and-institution-measures-in-response-to-covid.html

UAE has also passed 50k infections and 340 deaths in comparison to NZs 1555 / 22:

https://www.thenational.ae/uae/health/coronavirus-uae-records-271-new-cases-as-352-patients-recover-1.1051904

Granted UAE have been performing around 30k tests per day with positive rate of 1% which is very good news however it only takes a few super spreaders.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_Arab_Emirates

Handle9: It is a fact that the South Auckland Christian foodbank has had demand rise by 100% on pre Covid levels.

Your opinion isn't a fact, neither is mine.

So a few facts and comparisons between NZ and UAE:

- NZ does not have any restrictions on travel anywhere in the country since the 9th of June at any time of the day or night. UAE still has a curfew since 24 April from 10pm-6am and requires permits and swabs depending on where you travel.

- NZ had it's last reported community infection back on the 1st May, I would presume many of the 271 new cases reported yesterday were from community transmission in UAE.

- NZ has 27 active cases, all from overseas travel and all in managed isolation, the 8k or so Active cases in UAE I would presume are all in Isolation? https://www.dha.gov.ae/en/Covid19/Pages/Isolation.aspx

- UAE has almost twice the GDP of NZ, so even with all that additional money and standard of living the infection and death rates are at least 15x larger for infections and 8x larger for deaths per captia for the UAE.

- NZs debt to GDP is sitting around 50%, which is a lot better than many other developed countries especially those in the EU or the USA. https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/14/new-zealand-s-debt-to-soar-to-counter-covid-19-europe-s-will-too

Do you dispute those facts or are they just my opinion?

My opinion is that the long term impact of COVID won't be seen for a while as worldwide I still believe the true infection rates and long term impacts won't be known for at least 12-18 months. Perhaps the long term impacts from the virus aren't as bad as has been predicted, but if any of the international reports are as bad as some have said having the virus means you are not guaranteed to have livelong immunity to reinfection and also others have had permanent health damage to the lungs or other vital organs.

As I again cannot see any good outcomes for any countries and NZ has had an incredibly well managed government response with thankfully few hiccups that were not fatal flaws especially in comparison to other first world countries and lucky that NZ only started getting infections later than Italy so we had time to base decisions on other countries responses.

Also my opinion is that had we had National in power we would have been in a far worse situation most likely similar to how Australia is right now with ongoing regional lockdowns and far higher infections and mortality. I would love to see any reasoned arguments to change my mind that National could have handled this better.

Again you present positions that I have not made and in a blatantly political way.

I didn't say locking down wasn't the right thing to do. I didn't say that National would do a better job or anything of the kind. If you take a look at the Elections forum you can see my opinion of the National party's performance. As Fred99 quite rightly said this isn't the place for political grandstanding. There are highly political aspects of the COVID response, particular moving forward but I haven't made an nakedly political statement here.

This may be hard for you to understand but it is possible to be critical of aspects of a governments performance and not calling for a change in government.

There is no value engaging with you on this as you seem to be intent on picking fights without actually reading what was written.

Edit: Due to USB 3 not playing nicely with Logitech receiver.

freitasm

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#2526672 21-Jul-2020 17:41

Agreed, that's enough politicking in one health thread.

mattwnz

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#2526676 21-Jul-2020 18:04

jarledb:

mattwnz:

The fact is that the symptoms of this virus, are the same symptoms as colds and flu, which many people now seem to have.

You keep saying that as if it is a fact. Fluetracker shows something completely different.

This is the report for the week ending 12 July.

Source: Fluetracking NZ

Please provide proof of your "many people seem to have cold and flu" or stop saying it.

Doesn't the graph show that many people currently do have those symptoms? If it is up to 1%, that is around 50,000, isn't that a lot of people? Your graph also shows it has increased since the lockdown ended. It does also states that is shouldn't be treated as authoritative. So I am not sure what you mean. Yes, the numbers are less that previous years, but that is likely due to the lockdown suppressing other illnesses spreading, and last year none of the potential cases could have been Covid. But we are now in cold and flu season, and doctors are getting more people presenting with symptoms as a result. Potentially all these people should be tested, according to the MOH today, as they want more testing to occur, and it needs to. If there are 50,000 people with symptoymns, that is certainly manageable with our testing capacity, and would support getting all these people tested.

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mattwnz

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#2526677 21-Jul-2020 18:08

1101:

KrazyKid:

But like others said, you can't make people take the test.

Isnt that the problem.
If this is a major health crisis , or if it becomes one, then we should be able to require testing by law , where deemed needed .

What happens next time, with a even more deadly virus. Do we also say you can can refuse testing .
If this was (say) a TB epidemic or worse , would we still say you have the right not to be tested .

If its a public health issue, things need to be made compulsory , such as testing where required and guaranteening .
The safety of the masses allways needs to come before the perceived rights of the very few.

The anti-vaxers will be coming out of the woodwork soon , as soon as vaccines are available . :-0

I understand if someone refuses testing while in isolation, they have to spend longer in quarantine. So if someone in the community refuses being tested for this virus, couldn't they be put in quarantine until their symptoms have ended?

My understanding is that the government can also rewrite laws if needed for the public good. If someone does have Covid for example, they are not allowed to then go to where other people are, eg the supermarket, they must remain isolated. So isn't that forcing someone to do something, or not to do something.

tdgeek

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#2526679 21-Jul-2020 18:22

Oblivian:

And equally we have been pointing out, you can't MAKE people take it.

It is voluntary.

There has to be reason to consider it, or referral

They can throw numbers in the air all they like. When they keep banging that there has been xx days since community transmission and ensuring people the borders are closed. There is no reason for people to VOLUNTEER.

Regardless of the goal posts. You still have to have people WILLING, or a VALID REASON to put themselves forward.

This isn't China. We don't have a dictatorship.

Hoardes of volunteers come forward in Victoria when they ran street collection. The same would likely happen here if it was for requiring assurance. So far that assurance has come from the top that it's not necessary. The same people bitching there's not enough.

You nailed it.

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#2526682 21-Jul-2020 18:27

freitasm:

And you think jobs at The Warehouse would be safer if we allowed international business travellers as you mentioned before?

Really?

I cant speak for the Warehouse without looking it up in detail which I will do tonight, there have been many failures. The big names, are they linked to Covid? Mitre 10? Air NZ, Burger King? Air New Zealand is. I can't recall right now, but one of these big names already had restructuring in place last August. Covid-19 is a great excuse, and of it is, thats fine, no harm no foul, but I don't like using re covid restructuring as an excuse. Bag me if you wish, ill check tonight, just got in

mattwnz

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#2526684 21-Jul-2020 18:29

Yes my understanding is that some businesses were already planning on restructuring and laying off staff prior to Covid. So they shouldn't use Covid as an excuse, although it may cause them to expedite their plans.

debo

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Ultimate Geek

#2526693 21-Jul-2020 18:37

A good video that discusses testing:

Summary: The cheap, rapid, less sensitive paper tests are more useful than the expensive and slow RT-PCR tests that we are currently using.

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#2526701 21-Jul-2020 18:51

ezbee:

Victoria is turning into a very hard fight, looks like the initial postcode lock-down was too localized.
Perhaps some lessons, and warnings on how many days ahead of you this virus always is , if its allowed to be free.
NSW numbers may not look that bad, but they are persist, and a number of clusters/sources.
It shows the amplificati0on power of a bar, 1 bar is 50 of the cases so far and growing.
The other states must be reviewing their measures to manage interstate trucking, essential workers, and travel.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-21/coronavirus-australia-live-news-covid-19-latest-victoria/12474758

Key events

28mminutes agoAustralia's unemployment rate is effectively 11.3pc, Treasurer says
45mminutes agoJobKeeper wage subsidy rate will be cut to $1,200 a fortnight for full time workers
1hhour agoThree people have died in Victoria as the state records 374 new coronavirus cases
1hhour agoNSW records 13 new cases overnight

They really needed to bite the bullet and do a Level 4 cleanse. I watch a bit of Sky News which is AUS news, they dont want to lockdown, economy matters. They are putting themselves into a corner. If Kiwis had to Level 4 again we would hate it, but we know it, has to be done. AUS has had an easier lockdown there, they would never accept a true Level 4. But a true Level 4 would stifle the virus

mattwnz

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#2526702 21-Jul-2020 18:54

tdgeek:

They really needed to bite the bullet and do a Level 4 cleanse. I watch a bit of Sky News which is AUS news, they dont want to lockdown, economy matters. They are putting themselves into a corner. If Kiwis had to Level 4 again we would hate it, but we know it, has to be done. AUS has had an easier lockdown there, they would never accept a true Level 4. But a true Level 4 would stifle the virus

Until they have a proper elimination policy like NZ, they won't solve this long term IMO. Some people in NZ, including those in the Media here thought our lockdown was too tough, and thought we should follow Australia, with a level 3.5, rather than a 4.

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#2526704 21-Jul-2020 18:57

mattwnz:

I have been posting over the last few weeks here about the lack of community testing in the community.

You have! MULTIPLE TIMES! I dont always agree based on where we are, but I do support your stance, for sure. I guess the issue is who do you test? They cant door lock, and doctors would be referring, if not many are potentially symptomatic who do they test? If I "assume" we are covid free right now, we can test 200,000 per day and get no result. Yes, we should be doing more sentinel testing but it seems we need to door knock (which is not a bad idea) Door knock my suburb, test 1000 and so on.

But my point is we seem to be very clean. Our reserve should be when a CT pops up GO HARD THEN?

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