2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2527578 23-Jul-2020 09:30

wellygary:

Fred99:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421744/isolation-facilities-we-are-now-close-to-exhausting-our-nationwide-capacity-megan-woods

This has been badly reported by the media, "close to exhausting our capacity" gives the inference that nearly all the rooms are full, but in truth they more than half are empty....

Effective Capacity :6698

Occupancy: 2946

Vacancy: 3752

https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/miq-data/miq-daily-update-2020-07-22.pdf

What the Govt tried to say, and the media are misreporting, is that they have identified all the potential hotels throughout the country that can be used for isolation.. Not that the hotels are full to capacity.... ( The airlines paused bookings weeks ago, because it was almost getting to that)

Thanks for that reference. Really good clarification,

frankv

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#2527580 23-Jul-2020 09:39

mattwnz:

frankv:

There is no covid-19 wild in the community. The purpose of community testing is just to confirm that. So the public good here is quite limited; no confirmation of something that right now is not disputed. I don't see the need for draconian "lock them up" laws. It would be very different if someone was *probably* to or even *possibly* infected, but that just isn't the case.

You mean there is no 'detected' covid19 in the community yet. But the fact is that sooner or later, there is very likely to be a new case detected in the community, via a hole in our isolation facilities at the border, as happened in Victoria. The thing is we need to detect those cases as soon as they occur. If we aren't doing much community testing (only 8 community tests in one day points to hardly any community testing being done), then we leave ourselves open to becoming another Victoria if we give it time to spread. Concentrating testing around workers in hotels and airports etc, and families of those, are one area that testing could be done. As well as getting people who have symptoms.

I think we're using the phrase "community testing" differently. I use it to mean random or perhaps widespread testing of people with symptoms. You apparently also include *targeted* testing of people who may have contact with people from overseas. (I don't know which is correct usage, just pointing out the difference).

But, if there was covid-19 in the community, there would be hospital admissions and deaths within a couple of weeks. So no CT as of two weeks ago.

We aren't going to detect leaks in the border isolation effectively by (my definition) community testing. There would be tens of thousands of "extremely unlikely to be infected" people for every "possibly infected" person. The best way to detect leaks would be to test people likely to have contact with infected people... as you say, hotel staff, airport staff, police, etc. I do agree that 8 tests is inadequate.

Oblivian

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#2527593 23-Jul-2020 10:01

frankv:

The best way to detect leaks would be to test people likely to have contact with infected people... as you say, hotel staff, airport staff, police, etc. I do agree that 8 tests is inadequate.

*8 General population

Between the 8th and 19th of July, we can report border testing of 405 workers

There's still 405 with unknown number of tests between them (poss multiple depending on role)

Which exploded to ~2000 the following day from the 8 (total 600 odd)

I for one, wouldn't like being in that position after having one even if it did give warm fluffies for 'doing the bit' at the front line.

tdgeek

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#2527595 23-Jul-2020 10:08

wellygary:

Fred99:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/421744/isolation-facilities-we-are-now-close-to-exhausting-our-nationwide-capacity-megan-woods

This has been badly reported by the media, "close to exhausting our capacity" gives the inference that nearly all the rooms are full, but in truth they more than half are empty....

Effective Capacity :6698

Occupancy: 2946

Vacancy: 3752

https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/resources/miq-data/miq-daily-update-2020-07-22.pdf

What the Govt tried to say, and the media are misreporting, is that they have identified all the potential hotels throughout the country that can be used for isolation.. Not that the hotels are full to capacity.... ( The airlines paused bookings weeks ago, because it was almost getting to that)

Isnt that based on the leadtime? I vaguely recall she said they plan ahead 1 or 2 weeks, to match rooms with known incoming passengers, hence the capacity she refers to may be in 2 weeks?

wellygary

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#2527609 23-Jul-2020 10:24

tdgeek:

Isnt that based on the leadtime? I vaguely recall she said they plan ahead 1 or 2 weeks, to match rooms with known incoming passengers, hence the capacity she refers to may be in 2 weeks?

They are expecting to have 5633 in 14 days time, capacity will be 6935,

They will never reach over capacity now, because in the next week of so they will implement an on line booking service that you will need to book a MIQ room through, before you have book and air flight to NZ...

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#2527654 23-Jul-2020 10:44

Oblivian:

I can verify, when tested here you are given 2x information sheets. And verbally advised.

Do NOT go to work or leave self isolation, until 48Hrs AFTER your negative result is in, OR after you are symptomatic free following the result. Whichever is longer

It even tells you in the result if you bother to click it

So let's say sick on monday - get tested. result on wednesday negative, can't go back to work till monday.

That's 5 days sick leave from one sick episode.

Maybe that's why people don't want to get tested?

I'm not saying it's right or wrong I'm just putting it out there as matter of fact.

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frankv

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#2527659 23-Jul-2020 10:53

PolicyGuy:

Geektastic:

Surely going to work when people do not feel well is the end result of the idea of restricted sick leave?

The statutory entitlement in NZ is only five days sick leave for each year of completed service**.

Public service employees, and some private sector employees, enjoy ten days.
A very few organisations operate with 'unlimited sick leave' regimes - I only know of one

When I worked at MidCentral DHB, we had unlimited sick leave. I believe that's still the case. AFAIK, it wasn't abused.

I think the amount of sick leave owing is a factor in deciding whether to go to work or not. If you take a sickie every time you feel a bit off-colour, you'll quickly run out of sick leave, so tend to go to work, especially if you are running short. Another point... where I work now, when you start there's 6 months before you're entitled to *any* sick leave.

NB that if you run out of Sick Leave, you may be able to use Annual Leave, so that being too sick to work wouldn't necessarily leave you without income until that also runs out.

I do believe that the lack of Sick Leave and very limited (typically 10 days or less) Annual Leave provisions is part of the reason why covid-19 is so uncontrollable in the USA.

wellygary

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#2527663 23-Jul-2020 11:08

Batman:

So let's say sick on monday - get tested. result on wednesday negative, can't go back to work till monday.

That's 5 days sick leave from one sick episode.

Maybe that's why people don't want to get tested?

I'm not saying it's right or wrong I'm just putting it out there as matter of fact.

Pretty much this

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/jul/23/coronavirus-live-update-australia-victoria-nsw-queensland-face-masks-hotspots-covid-19-latest-news

from the Guardian in OZ

"Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, yesterday pointed the finger at insecure work as one of the main reasons why people in Melbourne were going to work when sick, or worse, when awaiting coronavirus test results.

He told reporters yesterday that nine in 10 people who tested positive over a two-week period in July told contact tracers that they had not been self-isolating since they first showed symptoms — that is, they had been going to the supermarket, seeing friends and family or even going to work. One in two said they continued to do so after they got tested, while awaiting their results.

There is a $1,500 hardship payment available in Victoria for people who do not have sick leave, but it’s only available to people who test positive to Covid-19, once they test positive.

Sally McManus, the secretary of the Australian Council of Trade Unions, said that if we want to make sure people stop attending work the minute they get symptoms we need a better form of income support which kicks in much earlier."

Oblivian

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#2527666 23-Jul-2020 11:17

Funny enough I fit that example. Sick over weekend, tested monday to assure everyone I had been with the week before. Not back till following week.

But, I'm an exception due long service of having a bit more than 6 days allowance. (and a butt load of standard leave as backup since I'm stupid and holiday infrequently)

frankv

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#2527718 23-Jul-2020 11:53

Interesting article from The Economist

* Bat populations throughout South East Asia (and maybe the rest of the world?) carry a multitude of coronaviruses

* Some of these bats have ACE2 receptors like humans, so viruses adapted to that can cross species

* Maybe Vietnamese (and other SE Asian peoples) have some immunity to coronaviruses, due generations of exposure

* WHO to investigate the origin of covid-19

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#2527720 23-Jul-2020 11:57

frankv:

Interesting article from The Economist

* Bat populations throughout South East Asia (and maybe the rest of the world?) carry a multitude of coronaviruses

* Some of these bats have ACE2 receptors like humans, so viruses adapted to that can cross species

* Maybe Vietnamese (and other SE Asian peoples) have some immunity to coronaviruses, due generations of exposure

* WHO to investigate the origin of covid-19

entirely possible

though why the chinese (very similar ethnicity from the naked eye - only a border away) don't have immunity. they also live close to bats.

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Batman

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#2527721 23-Jul-2020 11:58

frankv:

Interesting article from The Economist

* Bat populations throughout South East Asia (and maybe the rest of the world?) carry a multitude of coronaviruses

* Some of these bats have ACE2 receptors like humans, so viruses adapted to that can cross species

* Maybe Vietnamese (and other SE Asian peoples) have some immunity to coronaviruses, due generations of exposure

* WHO to investigate the origin of covid-19

umm "WHO" = Helen Clark?

trig42

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#2527740 23-Jul-2020 12:53

Oblivian:

Funny enough I fit that example. Sick over weekend, tested monday to assure everyone I had been with the week before. Not back till following week.

But, I'm an exception due long service of having a bit more than 6 days allowance. (and a butt load of standard leave as backup since I'm stupid and holiday infrequently)

Also, after what has happened so far this year, a lot of companies are allowing working from home.

We have had a couple of people here that have had colds. They've stayed home and gone and had a test. They worked from home for 5 days from their tests. No issues, still paid fully, no sick leave used.

I know not everyone can work from home, and will have to rely on sick/annual leave, but for some it is quite manageable.

Oblivian

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#2527751 23-Jul-2020 13:22

Notable mentions from today (0+)

Some of it against what we just discussed with some of Aussies fails to keep going to work etc..

Yesterday our laboratories completed 2,419 tests, just under 2 thousand of which were in the community.

Bloomfield said a key change of the case definition the other weeks sets out the group with a high index of suspicion. This is people who work at the border or people who live with those who do - they need to self isolate until they get the results back.

- If they have a test and aren't in the high index of suspicion group, they don't need to self-isolate while awaiting results. Bloomfield reiterated that most people won't need to isolate while awaiting test results.

Clicking the link in my previous test now 404s, but the site has these updated reccomendations.

We're still testing people with COVID-19 symptoms in the community so we can be sure the virus isn't spreading.

Most people being tested for COVID-19 in New Zealand now have a low risk of getting a positive test result. Even if you have symptoms, if you haven't been in close contact with someone with COVID-19, you're considered to have a low risk of having it.

If you have a low risk of having COVID-19, you no longer need to self-isolate after having a test.

But you do have symptoms of an infectious virus so you should stay off work or school. You should also avoid public places until your main symptoms of the virus have been gone for at least 24 hours. If you have to go out in public, you may want to consider wearing a mask. You should use good hand hygiene and cough and sneeze into a tissue or your elbow.

wellygary

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#2527759 23-Jul-2020 13:34

This just in from VIC,

"In Victoria, the premier, Daniel Andrews ,has announced a hardship payment of $300 which will be available to anybody who has taken the coronavirus test and needs to remain off work to self-isolate until the results are in."

Hopefully this will help

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