2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2536486 7-Aug-2020 21:58

Would you believe we are now on the level 2 US travel warnings... (4=max)

The US Government has warned its citizens to be very cautious about travelling to New Zealand because of our "23 active cases" of Covid-19.

Despite the US recording more than 2 million cases and 160,000 deaths, the government is advising against travelling to New Zealand.

Nevermind the fact they can't.

I needed a friday pick me up.

Fred99

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#2536540 8-Aug-2020 09:11

sbiddle:

mattwnz:

IMO we have to keep improving the border, and make it more and more watertight. The entire economy and NZers future is almost entirely based on what happens at the border to keep the virus out. The cost of a leak, like has occurred in Victoria, is going to cost a huge amount of money, and huge knock on effects, including a lot of unnecessary death. Let alone how it inconveniences and restricts the lives of everyone, when a lockdown occurs.

If hypothetically speaking there there is no effective vaccine in by the end of next year and the world has moved on and just deals with small outbreaks as they happen (factoring in that if there is no vaccine by then that herd immunity would have likely occured across many parts of the world) how long will NZ be able to keep it's borders closed for?

Why consider hypotheticals based on a bleak assumption that there won't be an "effective" vaccine?

If the situation was the same as it is now - (ie including with vaccines of unknown efficacy being "imminent") then why would you do anything different that we're doing now? If by the end of next year it was known that a vaccine wasn't going to work - then you make decisions at that time based on the good evidence you've got then - not based on what we know now.

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#2536558 8-Aug-2020 09:44

More talks about travel bubble to PI

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/news/article.cfm?c_id=7&objectid=12354619

sbiddle

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#2536560 8-Aug-2020 09:49

Fred99:

If the situation was the same as it is now - (ie including with vaccines of unknown efficacy being "imminent") then why would you do anything different that we're doing now? If by the end of next year it was known that a vaccine wasn't going to work - then you make decisions at that time based on the good evidence you've got then - not based on what we know now.

Discussions around the border need to be happening now and not just put in the too hard basket. A blanket ban on travel to NZ isn't sustainable even medium term, and in particular exclusions on people coming here as skilled workers (whether long term or short term) and the massive implications for the literally thousands and thousands of FIFO workers based in NZ who are currently stuck in limbo.

Fred99

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#2536563 8-Aug-2020 10:03

sbiddle:

Fred99:

If the situation was the same as it is now - (ie including with vaccines of unknown efficacy being "imminent") then why would you do anything different that we're doing now? If by the end of next year it was known that a vaccine wasn't going to work - then you make decisions at that time based on the good evidence you've got then - not based on what we know now.

Discussions around the border need to be happening now and not just put in the too hard basket. A blanket ban on travel to NZ isn't sustainable even medium term, and in particular exclusions on people coming here as skilled workers (whether long term or short term) and the massive implications for the literally thousands and thousands of FIFO workers based in NZ who are currently stuck in limbo.

Discussions around the border are happening now. It's going to be a numbers game WRT availability of adequate quarantine facilities. You were talking about what we'd need to do at the end of next year - that's a long time away.

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#2536605 8-Aug-2020 10:11

Ironically the inbound pressure on the border & managed isolation hotels might reduce if NZ did get another episode of community transmission! Kiwis living abroad might decide to stay put as the NZ Covid situation had deteriorated.

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Fred99

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#2536615 8-Aug-2020 11:17

36% of Americans answer "no" to the following question:

If an FDA-approved vaccine to prevent coronavirus/COVID-19 was available right now at no cost, would you agree to be vaccinated?

Gallup

Fred99

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#2536617 8-Aug-2020 11:21

The age group that expressed the most skepticism about a vaccine were those between 50 and 64 years old (59%) -- and the group that was most accepting of a vaccine were between 18 and 29 (76%).

Politically, 81% of Democrats, 59% of independents and 47% of Republicans said they would take the vaccine.

Article

The US really is an idiocracy / divided nation.

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#2536632 8-Aug-2020 12:18

Fred99:

36% of Americans answer "no" to the following question:

If an FDA-approved vaccine to prevent coronavirus/COVID-19 was available right now at no cost, would you agree to be vaccinated?

Gallup

No different really to places like Italy with their massive issues with influenza in recent years. Despite hitting 15k+ deaths in recent years it's still a huge struggle for them to get people vaccinated, with total vaccination rates below 20%, and those aged 65+ only sitting in the mid 60% range.

Yes they had a massive vaccine failing a few years ago (mismatch and chose the wrong strain) but the simple fact is people don't get vaccinated despite the fact it could save their life.

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#2536686 8-Aug-2020 12:51

Fred99:
36% of Americans answer "no" to the following question:

If an FDA-approved vaccine to prevent coronavirus/COVID-19 was available right now at no cost, would you agree to be vaccinated?

Gallup

From that I can deduce that about 38% people will vote for Trump.

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#2536687 8-Aug-2020 12:51

Fred99:

The age group that expressed the most skepticism about a vaccine were those between 50 and 64 years old (59%) -- and the group that was most accepting of a vaccine were between 18 and 29 (76%).

Politically, 81% of Democrats, 59% of independents and 47% of Republicans said they would take the vaccine.

Article

The US really is an idiocracy / divided nation.

do we know its not the same in NZ/AU/globally? Think lewis Hamilton, novak djokovic etc

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#2536691 8-Aug-2020 13:03

Fred99:

36% of Americans answer "no" to the following question:

If an FDA-approved vaccine to prevent coronavirus/COVID-19 was available right now at no cost, would you agree to be vaccinated?

Gallup

I'm as pro vax as they come, and I would be extremely cautious about getting an FDA-approved vaccine if it was available now. To my knowledge no vaccine candidates have completed 3rd stage trials, so having an FDA-approved vaccine would mean that shortcut's have been taken through normal vaccine safety processes.

I would rather others went first for a rushed vaccine granted early approval. Would feel more comfortable a couple of months after release.

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#2536692 8-Aug-2020 13:16

Scott3:

I'm as pro vax as they come, and I would be extremely cautious about getting an FDA-approved vaccine if it was available now. To my knowledge no vaccine candidates have completed 3rd stage trials, so having an FDA-approved vaccine would mean that shortcut's have been taken through normal vaccine safety processes.

I would rather others went first for a rushed vaccine granted early approval. Would feel more comfortable a couple of months after release.

I think you have misinterpreted the question and applied some false assumptions. "If an FDA approved vaccine was available right now (paraphrased)" would mean if there was a vaccine that has gone through all the correct safety processes to obtain FDA approval. It's a technique the pollsters use around the whatif type of scenario ie conjecture.

It doesn't mean shortcuts have been taken otherwise it wouldn't be FDA approved.

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#2536693 8-Aug-2020 13:24

At the rate Trump has been corrupting institutions, how much credibility will the FDA have?

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Fred99

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#2536699 8-Aug-2020 13:45

Batman:

do we know its not the same in NZ/AU/globally? Think lewis Hamilton, novak djokovic etc

I think as far as vaccines for kids go, then areas where there were outbreaks of measles, the vaccination rate had dropped below 90%.

I doubt ~35% of NZ adults would not accept a free, fully approved C-19 vaccine, but who knows? Maybe we need to find out, as if only 65% would have it and it isn't 100% effective, then the disease is here forever, and if it's the over 60s refusing in high numbers, then they'll just keep dying of Covid.

I suspect that many >60s who don't have a flu shot "don't get around to it" or forget - they don't actively refuse.

A couple of days ago I looked at a facebook post from a friend in Aus, celebrating a daughter's 40th birthday. She's been totally blind and totally deaf from birth - her mother contracted Rubella when she was unborn. She's been in care most of her life. This is what anti-vaxxers are seeking - even if they don't realise it. Unbelievable selfish behaviour. They way it's tied to certain religious/cultural beliefs is a problem.

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