2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2536706 8-Aug-2020 14:54

sbiddle:
Fred99:

If the situation was the same as it is now - (ie including with vaccines of unknown efficacy being "imminent") then why would you do anything different that we're doing now? If by the end of next year it was known that a vaccine wasn't going to work - then you make decisions at that time based on the good evidence you've got then - not based on what we know now.

Discussions around the border need to be happening now and not just put in the too hard basket. A blanket ban on travel to NZ isn't sustainable even medium term, and in particular exclusions on people coming here as skilled workers (whether long term or short term) and the massive implications for the literally thousands and thousands of FIFO workers based in NZ who are currently stuck in limbo.

I think a cost benefit analysis needs to be done based on risk. There is potentially going to be a high cost as soon as community transmission is detected again. Another lockdown will cost the NZ community and businesses money and require the government to again provide more handouts. If the first lockdown has a cost of 50 billion we have to look at what revenue we get by letting more people in and using private contractors potentially increasing the risk of community transmission due to human error or holes in processes.

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#2536755 8-Aug-2020 15:10

mattwnz: I think a cost benefit analysis needs to be done based on risk. There is potentially going to be a high cost as soon as community transmission is detected again. Another lockdown will cost the NZ community and businesses money and require the government to again provide more handouts. If the first lockdown has a cost of 50 billion we have to look at what revenue we get by letting more people in and using private contractors potentially increasing the risk of community transmission due to human error or holes in processes.

Disagree. The borders are as good as you can expect from a non prison approach. 36000 and counting. We are well over 1/4 of a year with no cases.

We wont be bringing more people in as we are limited by MIQ capacity, so its just having a few skilled essential workers on any one flight and less Kiwis, thats fine. if we need skilled essential workers for our economy, thats good with me.

I doubt we will see private contractor MIQ. No one will wear that.

I want to see students get back in, thats a goal to work for for 2021 education year.

frankv

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#2536759 8-Aug-2020 15:44

sbiddle:

If hypothetically speaking there there is no effective vaccine in by the end of next year and the world has moved on and just deals with small outbreaks as they happen (factoring in that if there is no vaccine by then that herd immunity would have likely occured across many parts of the world) how long will NZ be able to keep it's borders closed for?

Very hypothetical, since (a) individual immunity isn't certain, and (b) no country is close to herd immunity after 6 months. The most infected country is Qatar at about 4% infection, so would need a tenfold increase in infections (and deaths) to get close to the infection rate needed for herd immunity.

mattwnz

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#2536760 8-Aug-2020 15:47

tdgeek:
mattwnz: I think a cost benefit analysis needs to be done based on risk. There is potentially going to be a high cost as soon as community transmission is detected again. Another lockdown will cost the NZ community and businesses money and require the government to again provide more handouts. If the first lockdown has a cost of 50 billion we have to look at what revenue we get by letting more people in and using private contractors potentially increasing the risk of community transmission due to human error or holes in processes.

Disagree. The borders are as good as you can expect from a non prison approach. 36000 and counting. We are well over 1/4 of a year with no cases.

We wont be bringing more people in as we are limited by MIQ capacity, so its just having a few skilled essential workers on any one flight and less Kiwis, thats fine. if we need skilled essential workers for our economy, thats good with me.

I doubt we will see private contractor MIQ. No one will wear that.

I want to see students get back in, thats a goal to work for for 2021 education year.

I suggest you listen to the Sir David Skegg interview previously posted. I understand they are already talking about using private contractors . Bringing in students and housing them halls of residences for quarantine he discussed this could increase the risk of cases being into the community. He is probably the main reason NZ changed to the elimination approach as he did say it is possible to eliminate it.
He did say that the biggest risk of it getting back in is around staff working around these incoming people from overseas getting infected and then taking it back home to their family giving the virus a path back into the community. Complacency is going to be the problem IMO as these people drop their guard over time.

tdgeek

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#2536763 8-Aug-2020 16:14

mattwnz: I suggest you listen to the Sir David Skegg interview previously posted. I understand they are already talking about using private contractors . Bringing in students and housing them halls of residences for quarantine he discussed this could increase the risk of cases being into the community. He is probably the main reason NZ changed to the elimination approach as he did say it is possible to eliminate it.
He did say that the biggest risk of it getting back in is around staff working around these incoming people from overseas getting infected and then taking it back home to their family giving the virus a path back into the community. Complacency is going to be the problem IMO as these people drop their guard over time.

They is the Govt? They are discussing using private contractors or has someone raised that as a possible option?

What I bolded is already happening, the current count is 36000 to 0. The borders are not watertight, they are not supposed to be, if they were supposed to be it would be at Paremoremo.

Complacency is already the problem its not that it will be in the future, it already is.

AS far as students go, I don't favour University managed isolation. That wont work. They are educators not MIQ operators as is the private sector. Its likely that compliance from overseas students would be higher as they come here for a reason, 2 weeks is no big deal, but it will need to be part of MIQ in some form. In which case its no different to what we have now, which works well. Is a 5 billion industry worth being part of MIQ which we already do? Off course it does. If we need essential workers, them as well. Kiwis will hopefully drop off, they can be topped with with these other sectors.

cshwone

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#2536770 8-Aug-2020 17:26

tdgeek:

mattwnz: I suggest you listen to the Sir David Skegg interview previously posted. I understand they are already talking about using private contractors . Bringing in students and housing them halls of residences for quarantine he discussed this could increase the risk of cases being into the community. He is probably the main reason NZ changed to the elimination approach as he did say it is possible to eliminate it.
He did say that the biggest risk of it getting back in is around staff working around these incoming people from overseas getting infected and then taking it back home to their family giving the virus a path back into the community. Complacency is going to be the problem IMO as these people drop their guard over time.

They is the Govt? They are discussing using private contractors or has someone raised that as a possible option?

What I bolded is already happening, the current count is 36000 to 0. The borders are not watertight, they are not supposed to be, if they were supposed to be it would be at Paremoremo.

Complacency is already the problem its not that it will be in the future, it already is.

AS far as students go, I don't favour University managed isolation. That wont work. They are educators not MIQ operators as is the private sector. Its likely that compliance from overseas students would be higher as they come here for a reason, 2 weeks is no big deal, but it will need to be part of MIQ in some form. In which case its no different to what we have now, which works well. Is a 5 billion industry worth being part of MIQ which we already do? Off course it does. If we need essential workers, them as well. Kiwis will hopefully drop off, they can be topped with with these other sectors.

I guess you all missed this:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300076216/government-rejects-the-idea-of-privatelyrun-managed-isolation-facilities

"The minister in charge of isolation facilities, Megan Woods, said Victoria's Covid-19 struggles showed the benefit of having the military in charge.

The government was not considering the idea of going private, she said."

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tdgeek

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#2536783 8-Aug-2020 18:49

Not me :-). Ive heard of the news re private contractors, never heard it from Govt. Seemed clickbait at the time too. No doubt someone raised it as an option, quickly thrown out for obvious reasons.

Batman

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#2536803 8-Aug-2020 20:34

Rikkitic:
At the rate Trump has been corrupting institutions, how much credibility will the FDA have?

Depends on how much they bow down to Trump. Or if Trump installs someone who will obey him while saving those who don't.

kingdragonfly

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#2536806 8-Aug-2020 20:43

Washington Post: Georgia school reverses suspension of teen who shared viral photo of hallway packed with students

A high school in the Atlanta suburbs has lifted the suspension of at least one student who shared images of a crowded campus hallway jammed with mostly maskless classmates, according to the student and her mother.

Lynne Watters told The Washington Post on Friday morning that North Paulding High School had ended her daughter’s suspension.

“The principal just said that they were very sorry for any negative attention that this has brought upon her, and that in the future they would like for her to come to the administration with any safety concerns she has,” Watters said in a text message. “[The principal] confirmed that she will have no disciplinary action on her record and she can return to school on Monday.”

Hannah Watters, 15, was one of at least two North Paulding students who were suspended earlier in the week after they shared photos and video of the school’s crowded interior on the first days of school.

The school in Dallas, Ga., about an hour’s drive from Atlanta, was thrust into the national spotlight because of the images, which showed a sea of teens clustered together without face coverings, and raised concerns among parents and others over how the district is handling school reopenings during the coronavirus pandemic.

Facing a fierce online backlash, Otott told parents and guardians in a letter earlier in the week that the images “didn’t look good.” But he argued that they lacked context about the 2,000-plus student school, where masks are a “personal choice.”
...

kingdragonfly

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#2536808 8-Aug-2020 20:55

BuzzFeed: The Truth Behind A Viral Picture Of A Reopening School Is Worse Than It Looked

An alarming photo of a hallway crowded by mostly maskless students in a Georgia high school raises issues with reopening schools all around the country.

...North Paulding High School, about an hour outside Atlanta, reopened Monday despite an outbreak among members of its high school football team, many of whom, a Facebook video shows, worked out together in a crowded indoor gym last week as part of a weightlifting fundraiser.

Within days of that workout, several North Paulding players had tested positive for the coronavirus. The school’s parents were notified just hours before the first day of class.

And multiple teachers at North Paulding say there are positive tests among school staff, including a staff member who came into contact with most teachers at the school while exhibiting symptoms last week.

...“Days before school even started, they knew that many of the football players were sick,” said a person familiar with the issues at the high school. “They knew from before day one that it wasn't going to work.”

Some students at North Paulding say they were forced to attend school in person because all of the slots for the district’s virtual learning option were filled. A narrow sign-up window for virtual classes meant many parents missed their opportunity to enroll their children online.

James, a North Paulding senior, said he came to school Tuesday because his mother was unable to enroll him in virtual learning. He wore a mask, but many of his classmates did not. And while some classes practiced distancing, in one, a teacher had pushed together students’ desks to allow for group work.

...North Paulding teachers said they too felt they had no choice but to show up to work, even after a staff member texted colleagues saying she had tested positive for the virus. The staffer had attended planning sessions while exhibiting symptoms, one teacher said.

...In a resignation letter she shared with BuzzFeed News, [the school nurse] wrote, “Masks are not a ‘personal choice’ during a pandemic. I cannot return knowing I am not supportive of your decision to open so quickly and not at least mandate masks.”

...Many other parents and family members of students in Paulding County, however, are not concerned about the risk of attending school in person. The district said the majority of parents had chosen in-person schooling, despite the overfilling of its virtual schools.

“We have faith in our governor,” said Mary Wells, the grandmother of multiple students in the district, referring to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp. “He has done a great job and the school administrators in Paulding are doing the best they can in this insane time.”

Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease official, has been openly critical of Kemp for his decision this spring to reopen the state, allow indoor dining, and not mandate masks.

...Virtual learning was not an option for many low-income students without access to devices, or for students in rural areas with poor Internet access, one student pointed out. And Governor Kemp himself has refused a mask mandate.
...

kingdragonfly

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#2536810 8-Aug-2020 21:05

Pop Dust: Calling Coronavirus "Boomer Remover" Is Twitter's Big New Meme

The question is whether or not we respond with empathy to the real fears of people who never had our best interests at heart.

Every so often, a dank meme appears with big pandemic energy, spreading exponentially until suddenly it's everywhere.

Such was the case with "OK Boomer" and so seems to be the trajectory of "Boomer Remover," Gen Z's new term for the coronavirus.

It started, like many memes, with a single Tweet:

"I have been informed by a relative who is a middle school teacher that students are now referring to coronavirus as the “boomer remover”"

But while the term has an obviously jokey air to it, there's also a very serious undercurrent of anger beneath the surface. Even a perfunctory scroll through related posts reveals an overwhelming number of people who genuinely feel like the boomer generation has destroyed the world for younger people.

And while they might shroud their generational rage beneath the guise of humor, there does seem to be some real sentiment that the coronavirus might be the karmic reckoning that boomers deserve.

...Another Tweet:

"Millennials and Gen Z: dying from depression, homelessness, nonliving wages, mass shootings, poor healthcare, etc

Boomers: Walk it off, snowflakes.

Millennials and Gen Z: *calls coronavirus Boomer Remover*

Boomers: NOW LISTEN HERE YOU LITTLE SH_TS HOW DARE YOU PEOPLE ARE DYING"
...

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kingdragonfly

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#2536812 8-Aug-2020 21:17

Washington Post: Bikers pour into South Dakota for rally expected to draw 250,000, stoking virus fears

Health officials are still warning against even small gatherings, and states with relatively low spread of the coronavirus are ordering visitors from hot spots to self-quarantine.

That did not stop hordes of bikers from arriving Friday at one of the world’s biggest annual motorcycle rallies — the first of 250,000 of people from across the country expected to descend on South Dakota’s rural Black Hills. They rumbled through the streets and crowded the sidewalks, often without masks, for the start of a 10-day extravaganza so deeply rooted that Sturgis calls itself the City of Riders.

“I don’t want to die, but I don’t want to be cooped up all my life either,” 66-year-old Stephen Sample told the Associated Press, explaining that he’d driven his Harley up from Arizona. He worries about getting coronavirus, he said, and was trying to steer clear of bars but ate breakfast that morning inside a diner.

Like Sample, many bikers are from the older population most vulnerable to covid-19. Like Sample, many hail from the summer’s major viral hotspots. And like Sample, they’ve heard the warnings but decided the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally is worth the risk.

“This is a major experiment,” Sample told the AP. “It could be a major mistake.”

As the massive rally approached this week, the mayor of Sturgis said there was not much to do but encourage “personal responsibility,” set up sanitation stations and give out masks, though they are not required.

“We cannot stop people from coming,” Mayor Mark Carstensen said Thursday on CNN.

Worried residents, however, say officials should have delayed or canceled what could go down as one of the biggest pandemic-era gatherings in the country, in a state where Republican Gov. Kristi L. Noem resisted stay-at-home orders and mask rules — and last month welcomed another mass event, President Trump’s Fourth of July weekend speech at the foot of Mount Rushmore.
...

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#2536859 9-Aug-2020 00:11

meanwhile India's plan to profit from the pandemic (sorry not sure how it's related but the article says it's related). i thought making paracetamol was profit enough

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/08/india-prime-minister-narendra-modi-plans-to-fell-ancient-forest-to-create-40-new-coal-fields