2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2540300 13-Aug-2020 15:41

tdgeek:

You say that he may have infected many others in the last 14 days, but in 48 hours we should have located all of those people and had them tested? Its not the time to locate and test its the forensics to find many of these people. i wish everything was as easy as often is made out here

Very hard indeed. Requires you to remember accurately where you've been and who with and when - which is not an easy task. Made a lot harder if you've since been sick and had your mind on other things. And how often do you think of/remember something you missed 24 hours later? They do follow up interviews for this exact reason.

Not to mention you're dealing with multiple individuals, all with their own contacts.

Just another reason why the tracing app or keeping a diary is so important.

djtOtago

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#2540303 13-Aug-2020 15:45

kingdragonfly:

Covid-19: Americold confirms three new co-workers return positive results

Three new Covid-19 cases linked to the Americold worker who tested positive earlier this week have been confirmed by the company.

A man in his 50s was the initial Covid-19 case at Americold's Mt Wellington facility. Another close contact of the latest active cases has also been confirmed to have the virus - a student from Mount Albert Grammar.

<...>

The way the article reads, it implies the man in his 50s in infected the student.
How do they know he infected the student, and not the other way round?

Oblivian

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#2540304 13-Aug-2020 15:46

Think recent peoples are missing the point.

It was made clear the person in question doesn't handle your bag of peas you pick up. Or the box many of them come in. But possibly the pallet they come on. At multiple sites. And this company has pointed out very little product transits between NZ and Aus. Although it can. And none of their staff have recently.

Fred99

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#2540312 13-Aug-2020 15:54

JPNZ:

Americold is just a cluster, just coincidence that there is cases in the same company in Melbourne I'd say. Bloomfield said it will be person to person. The big question still remains how did the 1st case at Americold (the man in his 50's) get it? The fact that 48 hours down the track we still have no idea goes to show the tracing system is poor.

If it 100% came person to person who at Americold or in the general public gave it to the man above, where are they now and how many others have they infected in the last 14+ days???

I agree that it's probably coincidence - but that's not been established as fact, so it's not 100% established it was person to person (as opposed to fomite transmission).

The tracing system has limitations - the man could have picked it up anywhere, contact tracing won't work to find someone who walked past you on the street. It uses "most likely" contacts that the person has been close to and can never be perfect.

BarTender

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#2540313 13-Aug-2020 15:55

For those who haven't seen the IMDb article yet. There is some classic kiwi comedy nuggets in there.

1pm Daily Update

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12511606/

JPNZ

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#2540315 13-Aug-2020 15:56

antonknee:

More importantly - where did they get it?

The frozen food thing does seem unlikely, and officials are saying they don't think it's this and they just want to rule it out. I'm generally a fan of the simplest explanation being the right one, but this is an intriguing and very curious possibility.

Indeed! If it is person to person then how do we not know who that person is already? We are tracing from the 1st 4 (the index 4) through the people they infected but if you miss the 1st or 2nd step before the index 4 then your only tracking part of the chain.

That's the main problem here

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Fred99

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#2540316 13-Aug-2020 15:57

djtOtago:

kingdragonfly:

Covid-19: Americold confirms three new co-workers return positive results

Three new Covid-19 cases linked to the Americold worker who tested positive earlier this week have been confirmed by the company.

A man in his 50s was the initial Covid-19 case at Americold's Mt Wellington facility. Another close contact of the latest active cases has also been confirmed to have the virus - a student from Mount Albert Grammar.

<...>

The way the article reads, it implies the man in his 50s in infected the student.
How do they know he infected the student, and not the other way round?

I don't think they can be 100% sure unless/until they trace back to the source. They'll be probably assuming that as the student was picked up from testing while asymptomatic, but developed symptoms the following day, then he was infected later. They're probably right.

PolicyGuy

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#2540320 13-Aug-2020 16:04

1101:

Was it ever established that the 'lockdown', travel restrictions, quarenteening are 100% legal . I know its been tested in the courts tat least twice .
Could be the 'Bill of Rights' brings the legality into question , as has happened allready .

That case is still before the courts IIRC

However, the government has brought in new legislation since then which was designed to make the powers of the Director-General of Health lawyer-proof

wellygary

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#2540326 13-Aug-2020 16:13

djtOtago:The way the article reads, it implies the man in his 50s in infected the student.
How do they know he infected the student, and not the other way round?

At the moment they don't,

But now they will go and test the close contacts of the student and follow any links, if none come up then they will be assumed to be a branch, if they discover more cases its possible they are a step (s) closer to the source..

Case zero only remains case zero until something better comes along... like one of the border staff testing +

PolicyGuy

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#2540327 13-Aug-2020 16:15

djtOtago:

kingdragonfly:

Covid-19: Americold confirms three new co-workers return positive results

Three new Covid-19 cases linked to the Americold worker who tested positive earlier this week have been confirmed by the company.

A man in his 50s was the initial Covid-19 case at Americold's Mt Wellington facility. Another close contact of the latest active cases has also been confirmed to have the virus - a student from Mount Albert Grammar.

The way the article reads, it implies the man in his 50s in infected the student.
How do they know he infected the student, and not the other way round?

Dr Bloomfield said today that the Mt Albert Grammar student previously described as a 'Close Contact' is in fact a relative of the "Index Family". It is reasonable to infer that there was some kind of family gathering at which infection occurred.

If transmission was from the student that than to him/her, presumably Mt Albert Grammar will be riddled with Covid.
In which case I guess it'll be two weeks Level 4 for Auckland and Level 3 for the rest of us, and the election on 17th October?
:(

SepticSceptic

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#2540329 13-Aug-2020 16:21

BarTender:
For those who haven't seen the IMDb article yet. There is some classic kiwi comedy nuggets in there.

1pm Daily Update
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12511606/

Much laughter. Needed that. There are some clever people commenting. A few 1s but every release gets those.

I like the introduction of Collins as the arch villain..

To be continued....

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mattwnz

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#2540353 13-Aug-2020 16:55

freitasm:

"Aucklanders flee lockdown to Queenstown"

So many selfish people.

IMO the MOH and Government should have brought in the border closure immediately at the 9pm announcement, to prevent people moving out of the area. And then also require people isolate for 14 days if they did go out of Auckland to return home, because the fact is, any one of those people could have had the virus, in the same way that anyone from overseas and coming into NZ could have the virus. It is just illogical to me. We only need to look at what is happening in other states in Australia, where the virus has now spread out of Victoria into these other covid free states.

Funnily enough, the first of the CT cases and the level 3 lockdown for Auckland had already leaked onto twitter before the announcement, unless some people are really good at guessing.

mattwnz

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#2540356 13-Aug-2020 17:10

PolicyGuy:

Dr Bloomfield said today that the Mt Albert Grammar student previously described as a 'Close Contact' is in fact a relative of the "Index Family". It is reasonable to infer that there was some kind of family gathering at which infection occurred.

If transmission was from the student that than to him/her, presumably Mt Albert Grammar will be riddled with Covid.
In which case I guess it'll be two weeks Level 4 for Auckland and Level 3 for the rest of us, and the election on 17th October?
:(

I can't see how level 3 for outside of Auckland can be justified yet, until there is actually a case detected outside Auckland. But level 4 for Auckland IMO is probably needed now, as not enough testing was done, and it has likely been spreading for at least a few weeks, and they still haven't found patient zero. The moral of the story is get tested AS SOON as you develop symptoms Don't wait. I wouldn't have thought we would have had such a huge leap in cases today (13), if all of those people had been tested as soon as they developed symptoms. It is a big lesson to everyone in charge, that everyone with cold and flu symptoms should have been tested, as it is all about finding the virus in the community. To refresh some peoples memory,

The MoH changed the testing criteria in June saying the priority was patients with symptoms, who had also been in contact with people recently returned from overseas or with people who had the virus. In the article it quotes someone, that under the new criteria, most low-risk people with a minor sniffle were probably safe to say home.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/420200/covid-19-tests-free-or-paid-and-who-gets-one-gps-seek-clarity

So they weren't testing everyone with colds and flu, even though they are the identical symptoms to Covid, and we had the capacity to do the tests. So testing dropped down to very low number, eg around 1800 tests a few days ago.

I am also concerned that there are 5000 overstayers in Auckland. Will they want to get tested, if they risk then being locked up or deported? If they don't get tested, then it could delay eliminating the virus, and cause the lockdown to go on for longer. I guess a level 4 lockdown in Auckland for 4-6 weeks would help clear the virus, but it also depends on how many people are living in each house, as to how long the virus can remain circulating in that household. I imagine that houses with a lot of people, which seem common in this area, could keep the virus alive for longer in a household.

BarTender

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#2540366 13-Aug-2020 17:42

SepticSceptic:
BarTender:

For those who haven't seen the IMDb article yet. There is some classic kiwi comedy nuggets in there.

1pm Daily Update

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12511606/

Much laughter. Needed that. There are some clever people commenting. A few 1s but every release gets those.

I like the introduction of Collins as the arch villain..

To be continued....

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt12511606/parentalguide

kiwifidget

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#2540376 13-Aug-2020 18:02

All positive cases now have to go into quarantine. No more self-isolating at home.

That should fix the problem of huge queues at the testing facilities.

Delete cookies?! Are you insane?!

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