2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2433211 5-Mar-2020 14:43

mattwnz:

Although there have been 80,000 people reported with this illness in the world, if many haven't been tested and recorded in the stats, that number could be 200-300 thousand if not more. Not only that, but potentially the death rate percentage could be significantly less.

It's >95,000 now. I think that WHO have advised that the number of asymptomatic cases is not anywhere near as high as 2-3x confirmed - where extensive testing of contacts had been carried out. Some or many "asymptomatic" may be "pre-symptomatic".
Of course that's going to be a very variable thing - awareness of Covid-19 "going around" could incentivise people with mild symptoms to present for testing - on the other hand there will be people who know they're got symptoms and could be cases - but will avoid that, which throws a huge spanner in the works for "containment".

dogstar001

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#2433212 5-Mar-2020 14:44

Fred99:

wellygary:

Sure its nice for the statistics , but to be honest I'm fairly sure they will be notified to the WHO as suspected cases that have recovered and it will be left at that...

I hope you're wrong, because there's plenty of evidence for "recovered" patients still shedding the virus and supposed "relapses". They must test them anyway - or quarantine them.

Agreed, I feel this is an appropriate course of action. Personally i'm really struggling with the response by the authorities. They are so casual about the whole thing. I almost find it surreal. I feel

a firmer but more measured approach would do more to reassure people & maintain normality in society.

Fred99

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#2433215 5-Mar-2020 14:53

dogstar001:

Fred99:

I hope you're wrong, because there's plenty of evidence for "recovered" patients still shedding the virus and supposed "relapses". They must test them anyway - or quarantine them.

Agreed, I feel this is an appropriate course of action. Personally i'm really struggling with the response by the authorities. They are so casual about the whole thing. I almost find it surreal. I feel

a firmer but more measured approach would do more to reassure people & maintain normality in society.

Yes - but there we get to the crux of a real problem in a freedom-valuing democratic society. I'm sure many people who suspect they've got it won't front up for testing voluntarily and won't self-quarantine - especially when we've had a barrage of dangerous denialism "it's only the flu".

To contain it in Wuhan - they welded people into apartment buildings. That's not going to happen here. And that's why, unless radical action is taken, we'll never achieve what China appears to have been able to do. When NZ gets to only 250 cases nationally, then we'll be at the same level of infection in the population as China at the peak.

mattwnz

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#2433217 5-Mar-2020 14:54

dogstar001:

Agreed, I feel this is an appropriate course of action. Personally i'm really struggling with the response by the authorities. They are so casual about the whole thing. I almost find it surreal. I feel

a firmer but more measured approach would do more to reassure people & maintain normality in society.

I agree. Compare it to China, where they are going around in Hazmat suits, straying streets with disinfectant, enforcing travel restrictions etc. We seem to be using the 'She'll be right' attitude, and don't worry. Maybe we a haven't yet reach the stage of major community transmission, but we don't know yet due to potential the long incubation time. But we haven't stopped this getting into NZ, and we haven't stopped local transmission occurring, or others in close contact being potentially affected. People are worrying, and this has been proven by the run of stock at super markets.

mattwnz

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#2433219 5-Mar-2020 14:57

Fred99:

Yes - but there we get to the crux of a real problem in a freedom-valuing democratic society. I'm sure many people who suspect they've got it won't front up for testing voluntarily and won't self-quarantine - especially when we've had a barrage of dangerous denialism "it's only the flu".

To contain it in Wuhan - they welded people into apartment buildings. That's not going to happen here. And that's why, unless radical action is taken, we'll never achieve what China appears to have been able to do. When NZ gets to only 250 cases nationally, then we'll be at the same level of infection in the population as China at the peak.

I understand they do have the ability to do this sort of thing if people eg refuse to self isolate. People coming from Wuhan were forced into quarantine, so I understand that we do have have protections in place.

Fred99

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#2433224 5-Mar-2020 15:05

mattwnz:

Fred99:

Yes - but there we get to the crux of a real problem in a freedom-valuing democratic society. I'm sure many people who suspect they've got it won't front up for testing voluntarily and won't self-quarantine - especially when we've had a barrage of dangerous denialism "it's only the flu".

To contain it in Wuhan - they welded people into apartment buildings. That's not going to happen here. And that's why, unless radical action is taken, we'll never achieve what China appears to have been able to do. When NZ gets to only 250 cases nationally, then we'll be at the same level of infection in the population as China at the peak.

I understand they do have the ability to do this sort of thing if people eg refuse to self isolate. People coming from Wuhan were forced into quarantine, so I understand that we do have have protections in place.

Yeah they do. They have seldom used powers already with some other infectious diseases, but it's very extreme.

WHO must declare this a pandemic - to let democratic countries like NZ to get our backside into gear and insulate government somewhat from the ridiculous concept that they're "overreacting" when implementing pandemic plans that were put in place to protect us from exactly what's unfolding now.

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mattwnz

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#2433303 5-Mar-2020 17:12

Fred99:

Yes - but there we get to the crux of a real problem in a freedom-valuing democratic society. I'm sure many people who suspect they've got it won't front up for testing voluntarily and won't self-quarantine - especially when we've had a barrage of dangerous denialism "it's only the flu".

I think we have to encourage anyone who suspects they may have it , to contact health-line (free) 0800 611 116 or book in to see a doctor. They can then assess whether it could be this illness, or something else.

MadEngineer

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#2433315 5-Mar-2020 17:18

4 March 2020

Dear parent or caregiver
Auckland Regional Public Health Service (ARPHS) has confirmed a parent of two students - one at Auckland Grammar School and Ormiston Junior College - has been confirmed with coronavirus (COVID-19). While this is concerning for everyone, there is no risk to students, staff or others at the schools.
The whole household is in isolation at home, but the two students have not been infectious while they have been at school, and are not considered infectious now.
The children are completely well and have no symptoms.They are now staying home as a precaution, in case they develop the disease in the future. The parents have not visited the schools.
This disease is managed the same way as other infectious diseases, like mumps, where people who are close contacts – but do not have the disease – are kept away from others, in case they become contagious.
There will be high levels of anxiety amongst parents and students, and there will be commentary in social and other media.
Please understand that people are not considered at risk if they have been close to a contact – as the contact does not have the disease. Contacts of contacts do not have to take any action such as isolating themselves.
Please explain to your children that the students do not have COVID-19, and that they have not exposed anyone else to this virus. Please ask them not to post any information on social media as this could lead to bullying. Netsafe provides guidance on online behaviour.
If you would like more information, please visit the ARPHS’ or the Ministry of Health’s websites, or call Healthline on 0800 358 5453.
Please be assured there is no risk to the school communities from this case.

Auckland Regional Public Health Service

...
Meanwhile:
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronavirus-research-woman-with-no-symptoms-infects-five-people

You're not on Atlantis anymore, Duncan Idaho.

frednz

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#2433319 5-Mar-2020 17:25

neb:
frednz: Oh yes, that's right, even though it's very important, you can't buy hand sanitiser anywhere so you become reliant on dubious home brews, which may or may not be good for you!! Oh yes, NZ is really well prepared for this event!!!

nCov 19 is an enveloped virus isn't it? In that case anything with BZK in it would work, and you can buy that in anything up to 5L containers. So go to Bunnings, Mitre10, whatever, look for anything with benzalkonium chloride (BZK) in it, and get use that, diluted down, as sanitiser if you can't get the standard alcohol/triclosan based stuff. That is, assuming nCov 19 as actually affected by it, I'm sure someone will tell me if it isn't.

There have been plenty of suggestions here about how easy it is to make your own "home brew" hand sanitiser. Now if it's so easy to make and if the raw materials are quite plentiful, why isn't a bit of Kiwi ingenuity being used by some NZ company to commercially manufacture the stuff? Surely this would be very profitable when 500mL of hand sanitiser was being sold for $35? Come on somebody, get going and make the stuff, it could be worth big bucks for you!

wellygary

8830 posts

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#2433320 5-Mar-2020 17:27

MadEngineer:

4 March 2020

Dear parent or caregiver

To be honest, given the stats on this virus, I'm really not too worried about schools, Children appear to have a low susceptibility and a even lower rate of severe symptoms,

My big concerns is it getting in to resthomes, where its going to have a serious impact..

Scott3

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#2433321 5-Mar-2020 17:29

^^^ Seems odd that ARPHS would publish that article with such absolute terms, given there seem to be a number of examples of asymptotic symptoms, and not yet enough information for a scientific consensus on the issue.

In the engineering field, it is common to avoid terms like no risk, and instead use terms like minimal risk, negligible risk etc.

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wellygary

8830 posts

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#2433322 5-Mar-2020 17:34

frednz:

neb: nCov 19 is an enveloped virus isn't it? In that case anything with BZK in it would work, and you can buy that in anything up to 5L containers. So go to Bunnings, Mitre10, whatever, look for anything with benzalkonium chloride (BZK) in it, and get use that, diluted down, as sanitiser if you can't get the standard alcohol/triclosan based stuff. That is, assuming nCov 19 as actually affected by it, I'm sure someone will tell me if it isn't.

There have been plenty of suggestions here about how easy it is to make your own "home brew" hand sanitiser. Now if it's so easy to make and if the raw materials are quite plentiful, why isn't a bit of Kiwi ingenuity being used by some NZ company to commercially manufacture the stuff? Surely this would be very profitable when 500mL of hand sanitiser was being sold for $35? Come on somebody, get going and make the stuff, it could be worth big bucks for you!

Hmm, BZK is moss killer,

https://www.bunnings.co.nz/yates-surrender-moss-algae-killer-200ml_p0373872

[500g/litre benzalkonium chloride in the form of a soluble concentrate.]

Not sure we're that desperate to be cleaning our hands with the stuff.. :)

I think I'll stick with soap and water....

tdgeek

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#2433337 5-Mar-2020 18:29

No evidence, but a work colleague before I logged off said that China has had 75 cases that came in from there countries. I'll search now, but interesting.

tdgeek

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#2433338 5-Mar-2020 18:46

I dont like this

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/03/coronavirus-health-minister-criticised-for-revealing-covid-19-case-on-tv-with-no-details.html

Using this serious issue for political purposes. Why doesn't Paula give her version how WHO, Ministry of Health and the Government should act with this serious issue? /smh

alexx

867 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#2433339 5-Mar-2020 18:47

Useful list of things cancelled due to coronavirus.
https://isitcanceledyet.com/

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