2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2553172 31-Aug-2020 14:38

GV27:

Handful of cases today, all linked to the Roskill Cluster.

This is this mini cluster. I just can't understand how cases only started occurring recently, and are still occurring from this, when Auckland has been in lockdown for 3 weeks, which is well past an incubation cycle. The whole point of the level 3 lockdown was to prevent people being in contact with one another, and according to the news, all these church events occurred well before lockdown occurred. Has there been any official explanation from the MOH ?

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#2554159 31-Aug-2020 14:57

mattwnz:

GV27:

Handful of cases today, all linked to the Roskill Cluster.

This is this mini cluster. I just can't understand how cases only started occurring recently, and are still occurring from this, when Auckland has been in lockdown for 3 weeks, which is well past an incubation cycle. The whole point of the level 3 lockdown was to prevent people being in contact with one another, and according to the news, all these church events occurred well before lockdown occurred.

Has there been any official explanation from the MOH ?

If asked they will likely fudge...

But, media are reporting that there was inter-household-contact post lockdown....

"Sources have told 1 NEWS many worshippers defied lockdown rules and gathered privately for prayer meetings"
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/members-mt-roskill-church-gathered-prayer-meetings-during-lockdown

Oblivian

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#2554171 31-Aug-2020 15:07

Pretty much what I guessed a few pages back I'm picking

Seems it's the asymptomatic travel or 'lvl 3 meetups' by those feeling under the weather ('pollen') taken for granted. 2-3 days after you out, positive...

And then 2-3 days (or more.. scary) after that. Your mates do to.. rinse. repeat.

Sure, you can work out who you saw a few days back and confirm it was one of the ones already noted positive to link it. But it's still somewhat a rampant community spread. 1 first case has blown out to over 2500? close contacts. And those are now awaiting their testing and results which if they too come down, then add 14+ people to that list

We may claim non compliance is low. But I think this is almost an example it's somewhat otherwise.

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#2554180 31-Aug-2020 15:27

Oblivian:
We may claim non compliance is low. But I think this is almost an example it's somewhat otherwise.

I'd say that this is the non compliance that we know of.

Mainly because
1. They got symptoms
2. They got tested
3. Honest with story

I'm sure there are other non compliance that e don't know of because
1.no symptoms (may or may not have Covid)
2. Have symptoms Not tested (may or may not have Covid)
3. Have symptoms got tested but because negative we don't know that they were non compliant

And we see these throughout the free world (non communist countries). Human nature?

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#2554182 31-Aug-2020 15:29

Meanwhile, in America:

"Marilyn Cortez, a retired cafeteria worker in Houston with no health insurance, spent much of July in the hospital with COVID-19. When she finally returned home, she received a $36,000 bill that compounded the stress of her illness. Then someone from the hospital, Houston Methodist, called and told her not to worry — President Donald Trump had paid it. But then another bill arrived, for twice as much."

I wonder how many people in the USA are really ill but won't seek treatment, afraid of being bankrupt by hospital bills. And the unintended consequence is obviously spreading this even more.

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#2554190 31-Aug-2020 15:48

wellygary: "Sources have told 1 NEWS many worshippers defied lockdown rules and gathered privately for prayer meetings"
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/members-mt-roskill-church-gathered-prayer-meetings-during-lockdown

Seems we have the same problems with evangelical / fundamentalist / middle-ages thinking here that the do in the US, in particular Florida.

There's no magic switch inside the virus that turns off infectiousness inside a church, mosque, synagogue, ...

I realize that some fundamentalists want to bring on the end-times / rapture, but the rest of us don't.

I'm sure the same group will be protesting against any forced vaccinations, or object to how a vaccine does not meet their religious criteria: fatalism, stem cells, embryonic cells, must be kosher, must be falal, ...

It's doubly annoying they have special tax-free status while making getting rid of this virus so much tougher.

Perhaps anyone who believes in this nonsense should be put on their own quarantine island, since they obviously don't care about public health.

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#2554191 31-Aug-2020 15:56

kingdragonfly:
wellygary: "Sources have told 1 NEWS many worshippers defied lockdown rules and gathered privately for prayer meetings"
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/members-mt-roskill-church-gathered-prayer-meetings-during-lockdown

Seems we have the same problems with evangelical / fundamentalist / middle-ages thinking here that the do in the US, in particular Florida.

There's no magic switch inside the virus that turns off infectiousness inside a church, mosque, synagogue, ...

or at Nightclubs, birthday parties, funerals,... pretty much any location with lots of people close together has the potential to become a cluster,

Throw in an asymptomatic super-spreader and its all on

mattwnz

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#2554196 31-Aug-2020 16:01

wellygary:

If asked they will likely fudge...

But, media are reporting that there was inter-household-contact post lockdown....

"Sources have told 1 NEWS many worshippers defied lockdown rules and gathered privately for prayer meetings"
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/members-mt-roskill-church-gathered-prayer-meetings-during-lockdown

I had seen rumors, but there doesn't seem to be anything official yet confirming or denying. It probably isn't so bad if it is spreading between a ringfenced number of households while in lockdown, as it is then somewhat contained. The issue is that it potentially keep the virus alive longer, as it has new hosts to spread to, which results in level 3 needing to be longer. But once out of lockdown, and not all cases have been identified, then it has the potential to spread into the wider community.

Are they expecting this cluster and all associated mini clusters to eventually burn themselves out while in level 2? I have read experts opinions and they seem to believe that level 2 could lead to an increase in cases if we came out of level 3 too early. The PM did warn that we could go back up levels again if NZers fail to do thing properly this time. But IMO we already know that a small percentage of people won't, and there seems to be little margin of error when in level 2, whereas there is a huge margin of error in level 4, due to everyone being in their own bubbles.

Also I saw the Ministry of Health set themselves a target of 70,000 tests last week. I haven't seen them mention yet if they met this target. They only did about 7000 yesterday.

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#2554197 31-Aug-2020 16:02

wellygary:

or at Nightclubs, birthday parties, funerals,... pretty much any location with lots of people close together has the potential to become a cluster,

Throw in an asymptomatic super-spreader and its all on

Clock starts today.

Saw a meme this morning. Busy AKL motoroway. "Dear New Zealand. See you soon. Love, Auckland". You have to giggle. Not sure if they've had enough and want holidays. Or if they want to get out of the 'hotspot'.

We shall find out in a few weeks who hasn't followed precautions or shrugged it off.

mattwnz

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#2554200 31-Aug-2020 16:05

freitasm:

Meanwhile, in America:

"Marilyn Cortez, a retired cafeteria worker in Houston with no health insurance, spent much of July in the hospital with COVID-19. When she finally returned home, she received a $36,000 bill that compounded the stress of her illness. Then someone from the hospital, Houston Methodist, called and told her not to worry — President Donald Trump had paid it. But then another bill arrived, for twice as much."

I wonder how many people in the USA are really ill but won't seek treatment, afraid of being bankrupt by hospital bills. And the unintended consequence is obviously spreading this even more.

We potentially have a similar problem in NZ with overstayers in Auckland, and I saw some being interviewed the other night, and looked like they were possibly living in a garage. They use traditional remedies when they get sick, rather than seek medical treatment. Many will be too scared to seek treatment, as the fear the ramifications. The Minister of Health said that they wouldn't join the dots, so they have nothing to fear in getting tested, but not sure if they trust that.

mattwnz

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#2554202 31-Aug-2020 16:07

Oblivian:

wellygary:

or at Nightclubs, birthday parties, funerals,... pretty much any location with lots of people close together has the potential to become a cluster,

Throw in an asymptomatic super-spreader and its all on

Clock starts today.

Saw a meme this morning. Busy AKL motoroway. "Dear New Zealand. See you soon. Love, Auckland". You have to giggle. Not sure if they've had enough and want holidays. Or if they want to get out of the 'hotspot'.

We shall find out in a few weeks who hasn't followed precautions or shrugged it off.

Seems there are a lot who are wanting a holiday. Maybe a last hurrah before another more rigorous lockdown, or permanent level 2.5 - 2.8 restrictions?

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#2554203 31-Aug-2020 16:07

kingdragonfly:
wellygary: "Sources have told 1 NEWS many worshippers defied lockdown rules and gathered privately for prayer meetings"
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/members-mt-roskill-church-gathered-prayer-meetings-during-lockdown

Seems we have the same problems with evangelical / fundamentalist / middle-ages thinking here that the do in the US, in particular Florida.

There's no magic switch inside the virus that turns off infectiousness inside a church, mosque, synagogue, ...

I realize that some fundamentalists want to bring on the end-times / rapture, but the rest of us don't.

I'm sure the same group will be protesting against any forced vaccinations, or object to how a vaccine does not meet their religious criteria: fatalism, stem cells, embryonic cells, must be kosher, must be falal, ...

It's doubly annoying they have special tax-free status while making getting rid of this virus so much tougher.

Perhaps anyone who believes in this nonsense should be put on their own quarantine island, since they obviously don't care about public health.

Some religion-based organisations, like the Salvation Army, fulfil a clear social welfare purpose and add value. Others seem to just make demands for special treatment and not give a lot back beyond their cloistered communities. These should be subject to a special tax to compensate for their parasitism.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Oblivian

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#2554204 31-Aug-2020 16:08

mattwnz:

Also I saw the Ministry of Health set themselves a target of 70,000 tests last week. I haven't seen them mention yet if they met this target. They only did about 7000 yesterday.

No. Short. Only a spike on Sat/Sunday.

Their attempts were thwarted with head hunting reporters and lots of media stories focused on wanting a name to point fingers at who 'got it wrong' In re-requesting the same message from Wed over the weekend with the wrong clickbait headline (making it look like everyone should - no official media release was pushed for re-publish it seems) and not fronting up by the 'panic' it apparently caused.

Cause we know, lines of people coming forward in panic vs openly volunteering (tui?) is a bad thing. It was basically a repeat of the outbreak at day0 it seems.

Possibly bad in the sense that it brings out all the people second guessing their current conditions who should really have been checked already. And anyone who read it as another urgent outbreak blanket. The further details went into it, the headline image did not (see my prev)

wellygary

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#2554211 31-Aug-2020 16:17

mattwnz:

Also I saw the Ministry of Health set themselves a target of 70,000 tests last week. I haven't seen them mention yet if they met this target. They only did about 7000 yesterday.

They are close, but not their yet.... The target was announced on the 25th and talked about the next 7 days, so they have 2 days to go...

From the 26-30th they did 47964, or just under 9600 per day...

7000 tests on a Sunday is not too bad thou... its a heck of a lot better than the 2000 odd tests done on the Sunday before the outbreak was announced

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#2554213 31-Aug-2020 16:19

mattwnz:

freitasm:

Meanwhile, in America:

"Marilyn Cortez, a retired cafeteria worker in Houston with no health insurance, spent much of July in the hospital with COVID-19. When she finally returned home, she received a $36,000 bill that compounded the stress of her illness. Then someone from the hospital, Houston Methodist, called and told her not to worry — President Donald Trump had paid it. But then another bill arrived, for twice as much."

I wonder how many people in the USA are really ill but won't seek treatment, afraid of being bankrupt by hospital bills. And the unintended consequence is obviously spreading this even more.

We potentially have a similar problem in NZ with overstayers in Auckland, and I saw some being interviewed the other night, and looked like they were possibly living in a garage. They use traditional remedies when they get sick, rather than seek medical treatment. Many will be too scared to seek treatment, as the fear the ramifications. The Minister of Health said that they wouldn't join the dots, so they have nothing to fear in getting tested, but not sure if they trust that.

Possibly. But talking of treatment alone, it's been clear from the start if you are in New Zealand you will be treated.

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