2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2566397 17-Sep-2020 07:21

mattwnz:

We don't know the details. But if people are sick, they must stay home and get tested. Everyone who is sick with these cold and flu symptoms must get tested. No ifs or buts, as that was the advice that the Minster of Health gave. Our testing numbers have dropped back a lot , and countries like the UK are now doing substantially more testing than NZ. Unless we test, we won't find the cases, and it is that reduced testing that allowed this virus to get a head start in the community by at least a few weeks, leading to the lockdown. .

Yes we need enforcement and fines, which is what they are doing in Australia. We are now fining people for going just 1 km/hr over the speed limit, yet someone not doing what they should with this virus (such as being a close contact, yet not self isolating when they should be) , and this results in it spreading, has a major financial costs for everyone, and also the potential to cause more deaths.

But the school cases now appearing do show that children and schools are going to be a problem, and children do catch and can spread the virus. IMO mass masking is needed for all in Auckland, unless it is mandatory people won't wear them. Fine anyone who isn't. It has proven to provide significant benefits in reducing the virus spreading. Children have to wear them overseas of those countries that have reopened schools.

We don't know how good we have got it for now, as long as Covid doesn't silently spread, due to people not doing what they should be doing. In the UK, there current wave has resulted in the rule of 6, which is effectively going to ruin many peoples Christmas.

Reduced testing? methinks reduced testing translates to "people are deciding not to get as many tests"

Children arent the problem, some parents are, who send ill kids to school, symptomatic, could be a cold could be Covid, off to school this kid went. MoH cannot solve this they can only provide capability and guidelines, its up to US to solve this, and some of US are creating leaks. With proper actions, US can see the tail dropping off over x weeks, but this one instance (of many) will keep extending the outbreak. We should have an outbreak then a longish tail, but we keep extending the outbreak.

My sympathies to the many Aucklanders who are doing their bit. Too many avoidables are ocurring, I'd be getting pretty darn p!ssed off if I was living up there

Batman

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#2566398 17-Sep-2020 07:25

Oblivian:

Batman:

i think people need to stop passing judgement on a forum site. time for bed ...

If that was at me... eh? And I'm assuming since I posted the only reply in the last hour - it is

@oblivian no no no sorry i was typing my last post as the wife was wanting to go to bed and wasn't directed at any individual.

my apologies.

some people (myself included) have been passing judgement on people who appear to have done something wrong - and my point was, we just don't know their whole story - all we know is snippets of what stuff/herald have reported. and as we've seen in the posts before, the advice given varies from 0-100 so who knows maybe they were just following advice so we shouldn't pass judgement when they went to school and had covid for example, without knowing the whole story.

GV27

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#2566406 17-Sep-2020 07:48

Batman:

some people (myself included) have been passing judgement on people who appear to have done something wrong - and my point was, we just don't know their whole story - all we know is snippets of what stuff/herald have reported. and as we've seen in the posts before, the advice given varies from 0-100 so who knows maybe they were just following advice so we shouldn't pass judgement when they went to school and had covid for example, without knowing the whole story.

We also have had the health authorities expressing frustration at non-compliance and people being uncooperative. This isn't happening in a vacuum.

tdgeek

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#2566417 17-Sep-2020 08:24

Batman:

@oblivian no no no sorry i was typing my last post as the wife was wanting to go to bed and wasn't directed at any individual.

my apologies.

some people (myself included) have been passing judgement on people who appear to have done something wrong - and my point was, we just don't know their whole story - all we know is snippets of what stuff/herald have reported. and as we've seen in the posts before, the advice given varies from 0-100 so who knows maybe they were just following advice so we shouldn't pass judgement when they went to school and had covid for example, without knowing the whole story.

After 6 months, you would expect that every adult has some awareness of what to do and what not to do. This isn't a random news story. You dont need to watch every one of the 180 standups to know the deal, IMHO

wellygary

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#2566438 17-Sep-2020 09:04

mattwnz:

We don't know the details.

We actually have a reasonable idea... (and its not as people are making out in terms of non-compliance)

This story from RNZ contains

"Public health officials say the child was dropped off at school on Monday at 8.30am but was picked up again at 9am.
They later returned a positive test"
...
"The case is among those previously reported by the Ministry of Health."

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/426235/covid-19-south-auckland-primary-school-closes-after-child-tests-positive

from the current cases list

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-current-situation/covid-19-current-cases/covid-19-current-cases-details

We know a 5-9 year old female was notified positive on 13/9 in Counties Manukau

When that case was announced on the 14th

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/1-new-case-covid-19-18

Moh said:
"The case is a female child who is epidemiologically linked to an existing case associated with the Botany sub-cluster which has been genomically linked to the Auckland cluster.

The child has been in isolation since August 30 due to being a household contact of a confirmed case. "

So it is likely the child was originally tested and came back negative, but continued to isolate for 14 days, on Day 15 they presumably showed no symptoms and returned to school, but I'm guessing that Health said they needed to be tested before returning and then returned a positive test...

(the biggest question will be the status of the 3 siblings or friends that also were dropped off at school with them

"The four youngsters were only at the Flat Bush school for 30 minutes before they were picked up at 9am."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12365571

Batman

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#2566614 17-Sep-2020 09:30

Household contacts are tricky.

Here's a possible scenario that could occur

If you isolate dad with virus and everyone else without virus for 14 days, in the same house, dad told not to share bathroom and to avoid everyone else. Works great for 12 days then someone gets infected on day 13, get tested on day 14 - negative, and then show symptoms on day 18 and infect a whole lot of people.

Possible?

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Fred99

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#2566618 17-Sep-2020 09:34

tdgeek:

Batman:

@oblivian no no no sorry i was typing my last post as the wife was wanting to go to bed and wasn't directed at any individual.

my apologies.

some people (myself included) have been passing judgement on people who appear to have done something wrong - and my point was, we just don't know their whole story - all we know is snippets of what stuff/herald have reported. and as we've seen in the posts before, the advice given varies from 0-100 so who knows maybe they were just following advice so we shouldn't pass judgement when they went to school and had covid for example, without knowing the whole story.

After 6 months, you would expect that every adult has some awareness of what to do and what not to do. This isn't a random news story. You dont need to watch every one of the 180 standups to know the deal, IMHO

There seems to be some level of "distrust" with how MoH guidelines WRT testing/isolation are implemented. As for example in the thread above one person saying that they were advised that isolation while waiting for test results wasn't necessary - but conflicting with my report with my SO being advised that she did need to isolate, but both situations meeting guidelines. In my SO's case, she did have 2-3 possible Covid symptoms (fever, myalgia, diarrhoea) so high risk despite not having any known contact with cases. Maybe the OP reporting had symptoms not meeting guidelines.
If you're sick - stay home. Phone healthline, get tested if they say so. Trust them. If people don't and it's widespread distrust in "the system" - then we're doomed to Covid winning the battle.

DS248

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#2566627 17-Sep-2020 09:39

Interesting article and comments. Pulls no punches & likely a red flag to certain elements - to the extent that Reddit closed the thread after two comments, both deleted.

https://stke.sciencemag.org/content/13/649/eabe4242

Fred99

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#2566666 17-Sep-2020 10:04

DS248:

Reddit closed the thread after two comments, both deleted.

Subreddits are moderated. You don't have to look very hard to see train-wrecks.
I didn't need to look very had to find that thread, nor surprised to see that the thread was locked - without explanation of why it was locked.

While "interesting" - Reddit is an inconsistent joke, that subreddit an endless source of festering steaming turds of opinion being upvoted, brigaded by political shills, etc.

"This subreddit seeks to facilitate scientific discussion of this global public health threat."

ROFL.

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#2566775 17-Sep-2020 12:14

Press release (emphasis mine):

Today’s better-than-forecast GDP figures show the expected impact of the decision to act quickly to protect New Zealanders from the global COVID-19 pandemic.

GDP fell 12.2% in the June quarter from March, reflecting decisions to close New Zealand’s borders and enter Alert Level 4.

“This result was better than the Treasury forecast of 16% released yesterday and at the lower end of other commentators’ expectations,” Grant Robertson said.

Annual average GDP was down 2% in the year ended June 2020.

“The lives and livelihoods of New Zealander’s are our top priority. The Government acted swiftly to put the country into lockdown and protect our people when COVID-19 arrived,” Grant Robertson said.

“The June quarter includes almost the entire time New Zealand was in Alert Level 4 which we moved into on March 26, so this result is not surprising. Going hard and early means that we can come back faster and stronger. Economists expect the current September quarter to show a record jump back to growth in the economy.

“We already know we have bounced back since the end of June, with the New Zealand activity index in July up two percent on the same period last year. Electronic card spending was also 11 percent higher in July than the same period in 2019.

“The structure of the New Zealand economy which relies heavily on tourism and international education means that this GDP result is in line with expectations. The contribution of a sector like tourism to New Zealand’s exports is about double than it makes to the Australian economy which contracted 7% in the same quarter.

“In some ways today’s result shows the limitations of GDP as a measure of the wellbeing of a country. While the economy slowed during lockdown, the benefits of moving into Alert Level 4 are not taken into account – including potentially saving thousands of lives, not overburdening the health system and getting on top of the virus so we could bounce back faster.

“Our investments like the wage subsidy scheme, the small business cashflow scheme and business tax changes have cushioned the blow through this health crisis, and our focus now is on supporting the economy to recover and rebuild. By opening up the economy faster than forecast, we have a strong head start,” Grant Robertson said.

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1101

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#2566781 17-Sep-2020 12:26

Another escapee from quarantine last night.

He's was found later that night.
"He's been taken to hospital due to concerns for his wellbeing."

Just putting this up here: possible (a guess) mental wellbeing issues , so we dont start hammering on him for escaping.
:-)

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vexxxboy

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#2566794 17-Sep-2020 12:42

1101:

Another escapee from quarantine last night.

He's was found later that night.
"He's been taken to hospital due to concerns for his wellbeing."

Just putting this up here: possible (a guess) mental wellbeing issues , so we dont start hammering on him for escaping.
:-)

at that time of night and the location of the Hotel he would have problems finding anybody to pass the virus to.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Reanalyse

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#2566854 17-Sep-2020 14:27

1101:

Another escapee from quarantine last night.

He's was found later that night.
"He's been taken to hospital due to concerns for his wellbeing."

Just putting this up here: possible (a guess) mental wellbeing issues , so we dont start hammering on him for escaping.
:-)

Note to all campaigning politicians of any stripe.

Criticizing people that are doing their best for events such as this happening, and stating that " residents were "promised" that nothing like this would happen" is not a productive statement.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12365751

wellygary

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#2566865 17-Sep-2020 14:41

Another good day of no new community cases, now 3 in a row,

Actives are 44, and continue to trend down, looks like we might have dodged a the "les mills" bullet...

[gyms have some reasonably strict distancing and hygiene requirements under L2]

All going well I think we are looking at early October to finally close down this outbreak, all other things being equal the last 45 cases arose from 29 August-14 September, (17 days) so another 17 days takes us to 4/5 October,

Touch wood I'm guessing Auckland will go to level 2 next week sometime (although masks on PT will remain)

I'm hearing health are scoping something call level 1+ (which I suspect is level 1 with masks for PT) and the rest of the country might get that until we get back to no active community cases...

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#2566909 17-Sep-2020 15:46

New York Times: Trump contradicts the C.D.C. chief’s testimony on masks and vaccines.

President Trump rebuked the head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Wednesday, saying that Dr. Robert R. Redfield offered “incorrect information” when he told a Senate panel earlier in the day that a coronavirus vaccine was unlikely to be widely available before the middle of next year.

“I saw the statement — I called him,” Mr. Trump told reporters during a news briefing at the White House. “I said, ‘What did you mean by that?’ And I think he just made a mistake.”

The president also said that Dr. Redfield was wrong to say that a mask is more effective than a vaccine.

“The mask is not as important as the vaccine,” the president asserted, adding, “The mask, perhaps, helps.

...Dr. Redfield had told senators that even if a vaccine were available now, vaccinating enough Americans for widespread immunity could take six to nine months. He estimated that one could be available for limited use by the end of the year, and for wider distribution by the middle of 2021, echoing a timeline that other top health officials, including Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, had used in recent weeks.

During the hearing, Dr. Redfield also said that masks are “the most important, powerful public health tool we have” in fighting the pandemic.

He said universal mask use could bring the pandemic under control in a few months and said, “I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against Covid than when I take a Covid vaccine.” (Vaccines are not 100 percent effective, whereas masks, worn properly, do what they are designed to do.)

But Mr. Trump asserted several times that his C.D.C. chief was wrong. “I got the impression that he didn’t realize he said what he might have said,” the president said. Asked whether he still had “confidence” in Dr. Redfield, Mr. Trump said, “I do.”

The president has repeatedly claimed that a vaccine could be available before Election Day, a timeline that most health experts say is unrealistic, prompting concerns that the Food and Drug Administration might give emergency authorization to a vaccine before it has been fully vetted for safety and effectiveness. Nine pharmaceutical companies have pledged to “stand with science” and to not push through any product that didn’t stand up to scientific scrutiny.

...“We’re ready to go as soon as the vaccine happens,” Mr. Trump said. Asked how long he thought it might be before every American could be vaccinated, he replied, “I think it will be very soon.”

Mr. Trump said at a town-hall-style event on Tuesday night that a vaccine could be ready within “three weeks, four weeks.”...

Also in the same article Caputo will take a leave of absence from health department.

Michael R. Caputo, the embattled top spokesman of the cabinet department overseeing the coronavirus response, will take a leave of absence...

The announcement came after a bizarre and inflammatory outburst on Facebook on Sept. 13 and disclosures that he and his team had tried to water down official reports of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about the pandemic.
...

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