New Nissan LEAF announced!

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#1866666 15-Sep-2017 09:03

Handle9:

Can it be done - yes. Is it currently comparable with an ICE experience - no.

The Leaf is an excellent commuter and town car, as others have said. EVs are now viable for this application and used imports are viable financially (partly due to the subsidies in the economies we buy them from).

It's still some years off for most drivers if they regularly have to to do longer range trips. Expecting most long range trips to take 25% says that it isn't yet viable for most people. It'll get there fairly quickly but it's not there yet for the mainstream.

Personally I expect our next second car to be an EV. I think we're still 5-10 years away from both our cars to be EVs. This lines up with the expectations in being set in overseas markets like the UK and China.

I keep injecting the climate emergency thing.....as it is something most existing EV owners already grasp.

The "mainstream" could use a little waking up and consider minor compromises to help ensure their descendants live on a habitable planet. Some scenarios have hydrogen sulphide-producing bacteria being advantaged....at which point the atmosphere becomes seriously toxic and most land life dies.

Adding: At this point, cities like Miami are already gone......like a car heading for a crash into a brick wall in 3 minutes. Two minutes and 30 seconds out the music sounds great and there is no obvious problem....except those annoying people talking about that darn brick wall that isn't even visible yet.......well, maybe....but it's so far away.

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#1866807 15-Sep-2017 12:20

I wonder what the replacement costs will be for batteries for this and other EV cars. How long will they last?

The way NZ'ers that are classed as mainstream buy vehicles is that they are imported from overseas with 50,000+kms on the clock. Some readings i have seen estimate that EV cars will require battery replacement at 100,000kms. For me this would turn me right off buying any EV vehicle second hand. You would have little idea on the life left in the batteries and how they were treated prior to purchase.

It would be nice to think that we could all afford an EV car brand new, but in reality this is far out of the reach of most people (unless you get a car loan which is stupid).

This in turn will create a bit of a bad name for some EV's among people - "I brought an EV a few months ago and it already needs a new battery" type conversations could become common with second hand vehicles.

MarkH67

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#1866840 15-Sep-2017 13:00

jaymz:

Some readings i have seen estimate that EV cars will require battery replacement at 100,000kms.

Who makes that claim? Shell? Mobil? BP?

I've seen a pic on facebook of a Nissan Leaf with 280,000kms on the clock & 11 out of 12 bars on the battery SoH meter. There is a Tesla that has passed 500,000 MILES!

I've seen a video of a Leaf with 11 out of 12 bars that is 5 years old - colder (Canada) climate probably helping that one.

One problem is that there is no way to know what a battery replacement will cost, there is still several years before such a thing will be needed and we only know today's costs.

If the battery is too expensive then you sell the car to someone with a shorter commute and you buy a newer car with a better battery. It is only IF a battery swap works out to be the better financial move that you bother doing it.

frednz

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#1866844 15-Sep-2017 13:07

Linuxluver:

Handle9:

Can it be done - yes. Is it currently comparable with an ICE experience - no.

The Leaf is an excellent commuter and town car, as others have said. EVs are now viable for this application and used imports are viable financially (partly due to the subsidies in the economies we buy them from).

It's still some years off for most drivers if they regularly have to to do longer range trips. Expecting most long range trips to take 25% says that it isn't yet viable for most people. It'll get there fairly quickly but it's not there yet for the mainstream.

Personally I expect our next second car to be an EV. I think we're still 5-10 years away from both our cars to be EVs. This lines up with the expectations in being set in overseas markets like the UK and China.

I keep injecting the climate emergency thing.....as it is something most existing EV owners already grasp.

The "mainstream" could use a little waking up and consider minor compromises to help ensure their descendants live on a habitable planet. Some scenarios have hydrogen sulphide-producing bacteria being advantaged....at which point the atmosphere becomes seriously toxic and most land life dies.

Adding: At this point, cities like Miami are already gone......like a car heading for a crash into a brick wall in 3 minutes. Two minutes and 30 seconds out the music sounds great and there is no obvious problem....except those annoying people talking about that darn brick wall that isn't even visible yet.......well, maybe....but it's so far away.

The "climate emergency thing" is also clearly grasped by most people these days. But, is the same pressure being put on people who frequently fly, to stay at home because of how damaging aircraft are to the planet? And is the same pressure put on farmers to get rid of all their cows because their methane emissions are much more damaging than CO2 emissions? We all want to do our very best for the planet, but we also have to accept that this can't be done over night and must be driven by Governments.

For some people, petrol vehicles are essential to their survival and their only alternative would be to walk everywhere, use public transport, or ride on horseback until prices of EVs come down and their range increases.

But public transport is far from green and even horses fart, so EV enthusiasts, just be patient and stop the alarmist talk, please!!!!

And remember, Earth’s hottest periods—the Hadean, the late Neoproterozoic, the PETM—occurred before humans existed.

GeekRay

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#1866859 15-Sep-2017 13:28

I don't think Earth will have any problem surviving; it's the humans that we need to worry about.

jaymz

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#1866870 15-Sep-2017 13:46

MarkH67:

jaymz:

Some readings i have seen estimate that EV cars will require battery replacement at 100,000kms.

Who makes that claim? Shell? Mobil? BP?

I've seen a pic on facebook of a Nissan Leaf with 280,000kms on the clock & 11 out of 12 bars on the battery SoH meter. There is a Tesla that has passed 500,000 MILES!

I've seen a video of a Leaf with 11 out of 12 bars that is 5 years old - colder (Canada) climate probably helping that one.

One problem is that there is no way to know what a battery replacement will cost, there is still several years before such a thing will be needed and we only know today's costs.

If the battery is too expensive then you sell the car to someone with a shorter commute and you buy a newer car with a better battery. It is only IF a battery swap works out to be the better financial move that you bother doing it.

Easy on there, below are the links where i read about servicing costs and how long a battery should last:

http://insideevs.com/ev-vs-ice-maintenance-the-first-100000-miles/

http://www.hybridcars.com/how-long-will-an-evs-battery-last/

I assume they are independent and not affiliated with any fuel company.

There is a reason why these manufacturers only have a warranty for so long on these batteries, and if you look in the last link above they have clear warnings about not letting the battery go to 0% and that the user should also expect a loss of storage capacity over time.

I have always felt that EV cars are best suited for people who lease them. Then they return the car before any warranty runs out and get a new car. A rather expensive "throw away" idea though!

MarkH67

One problem is that there is no way to know what a battery replacement will cost, there is still several years before such a thing will be needed and we only know today's costs.

From what i can find, a replacement battery for a Nissan Leaf (not sure of generation) will set you back US$6500. They require you to return the old battery for a $1000 off discount (effectively meaning you are out of pocket US$5500) Early estimates for this battery were as high at $15,000 but Nissan has worked to lower the prices.

MarkH67

If the battery is too expensive then you sell the car to someone with a shorter commute and you buy a newer car with a better battery. It is only IF a battery swap works out to be the better financial move that you bother doing it.

I think something that a lot of people are going to struggle with is the idea that the car they buy second hand will not go as far on a charge as it once did. It is a concept that is not something you think of when you get into a car!

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KrazyKid

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#1866871 15-Sep-2017 13:46

frednz:

The "climate emergency thing" is also clearly grasped by most people these days. But, is the same pressure being put on people who frequently fly, to stay at home because of how damaging aircraft are to the planet? And is the same pressure put on farmers to get rid of all their cows because their methane emissions are much more damaging than CO2 emissions? We all want to do our very best for the planet, but we also have to accept that this can't be done over night and must be driven by Governments.

For some people, petrol vehicles are essential to their survival and their only alternative would be to walk everywhere, use public transport, or ride on horseback until prices of EVs come down and their range increases.

I an quite pessimistic about our ability to change. Governments or no governments.

Generalizing here:

Humans tend to focus on themselves and what is good for them. Very few are will to change there lifestyle in a meaningful way as the "cost" is to much.
Say we need public transport to replace petrol vehicles - very few governments are willing to spend the money on such infrastructure. Why because very few voters are willing to see taxes go up to pay for it.
Higher taxes is a cost we don't want to pay.
We all say we want a greener life style but most of us only recycle a few bits of paper and plastic.
We buy he cheapest good available even if it is a) bad for the environment and its inefficiently shipped from china in individual packets.

And I for one am the same as most people. And I am lucky enough that buying an electric car would not kill me financially in the long run. But it would add a few years to the mortgage and my ICE is 15 years old but it still goes ok.
Hopefully I'll manage to buy a electric car next year when I finally get decide the Honda needs replacing.

/despair

Back on topic - new leaf looks nice - do you think it will drive down the cost of imported Gen 2 leafs, or will the increasing demand that they seem to have in NZ keep supporting the price.

I'd love to pick up a Gen 2 Leaf for 13,000 - I've seen them as low as $17,000 on trade me (but most seem around $20,000)

Linuxluver

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#1866892 15-Sep-2017 14:27

jaymz:

I wonder what the replacement costs will be for batteries for this and other EV cars. How long will they last?

(Edit: Now to correct all the typos) What's the cost for a replacement engine in an ICE car, or exhaust system?

The batteries are supposed to last 8-10 years and be at 75%-80% capacity at that time. It's why you'd buy a car with a bit more range than you need right now....so it will have the range you need until the battery needs refreshing / replacing.

How much will it cost? What will *anything* cost in 8 years? The trend is that will be cheaper. Especially if the solid-state battery is perfected. They charge in minutes and basically last forever. You'd buy a new car to wrap around them. But by today's standards, some car vendors - Renault and BMW - offer a new battery pack or an upgrade. They aren't cheap today, but you can upgrade your 22kWh Renault Zoe to 40kWh for a price. Similarly BMW's i3. If you bought the 24kWh(?) version, you can pay to have it upgraded to 33kWh. That should perhaps be a factor in deciding which EV to buy.

Most people buy the old (literally - the 2011 / 12 models) LEAF with 90-120km range for $10k-$12k reckoning that if it lasts them 5 years it will have paid for itself in petrol not bought and servicing not required. The issue of any replacement battery is held out there for the future. As it is, EECA recently awarded Bluecars over $23,000 in co-funding to explore ways to refresh / replace old LEAF batteries as they are, currently, the most affordable EVs...and the growth of the fast charging network has been such than even these cars can be used for travel between many towns, certainly on the North Island and around Christchurch.

The way NZ'ers that are classed as mainstream buy vehicles is that they are imported from overseas with 50,000+kms on the clock. Some readings i have seen estimate that EV cars will require battery replacement at 100,000kms. For me this would turn me right off buying any EV vehicle second hand. You would have little idea on the life left in the batteries and how they were treated prior to purchase.

Fair enough.....though it's worth pointing out that the tech is developing so rapidly with EVs that the residual value of them tumbles fairly rapidly. That's bad for people who bought then new and great for people buying them later. My own LEAF has just under 40,000km and the battery is 96% on a bad day and 98% on a good day......so no real impact on range as I almost never run it down close to empty anyway.

But you're right.....and this is where purchase incentives or tax credits for rebates funded via a carbon tax have been used overseas to bring the prices closer together NOW....and now when we need the CO2 reductions....not 2, 3 or 5 years from now when everyone gets around to it. Hopefully Hurricane Irma opened a few eyes.......the strongest hurricane ever and from a part of the Atlantic that doesn't usually spawn hurricanes. That's ALREADY happening.....action was required 20 years ago...and it didn't happen. Every day we delay now will just make it worse down the road.

It would be nice to think that we could all afford an EV car brand new, but in reality this is far out of the reach of most people (unless you get a car loan which is stupid).

This in turn will create a bit of a bad name for some EV's among people - "I brought an EV a few months ago and it already needs a new battery" type conversations could become common with second hand vehicles.

Yeah....and if that were the case, it would be bad. No one buying a new EV today in NZ is going to have any battery issues (other than defects - they happen with everything) for at least 5 years and closer to 10. Given there were no EVs at all only 7 years ago.....watch this space. It's changing very rapidly.

One strategy is to buy the cheapest used LEAF you can get today.....so you're emissions free for most driving NOW.....and then in 2-3 years buy the best new EV out....and there will be many.

Even better, change the government on September 23rd and have a government that will actually DO something about the affordability issues you correctly and reasonably raise. It can be done. California and Norway and others are all over it.

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Linuxluver

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#1866899 15-Sep-2017 14:40

frednz:

The "climate emergency thing" is also clearly grasped by most people these days. But, is the same pressure being put on people who frequently fly, to stay at home because of how damaging aircraft are to the planet? And is the same pressure put on farmers to get rid of all their cows because their methane emissions are much more damaging than CO2 emissions? We all want to do our very best for the planet, but we also have to accept that this can't be done over night and must be driven by Governments.

For some people, petrol vehicles are essential to their survival and their only alternative would be to walk everywhere, use public transport, or ride on horseback until prices of EVs come down and their range increases.

But public transport is far from green and even horses fart, so EV enthusiasts, just be patient and stop the alarmist talk, please!!!!

And remember, Earth’s hottest periods—the Hadean, the late Neoproterozoic, the PETM—occurred before humans existed.

If people really understood, they would see the need to do something about it...both personally and politically. For now, I agree a lot of people 'get it'.....but many haven't made the leap to doing something about it with a sense of urgency. "I don't like the colour, I'll wait for next years model" (example) isn't someone who sees themselves playing any immediate role in addressing emissions.

As for flying or farming, we can all engage in what-about-ery.....it's a nice distraction from taking personal ownership of our own emissions because the world and our descendants need us to. People will need to fly around. So let's look at other ways to do that. Farmers have a problem if people go vegetarian.....as they will have to grow something else (if the land allows it - a lot of livestock land isn't suitable for cropping).

One problem at a time. I see two steps you and I can take today. We can address our own emissions....and vote for a government that will help address all excess emissions. Maybe a grow meat in vats. Maybe we house herds and extract the methane form the air in the building they are housed in. People have been wintering livestock indoors for centuries. We're just not used to it in NZ.

One problem at a time.....starting with you and me.

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jaymz

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#1866908 15-Sep-2017 15:00

Linuxluver:

jaymz:

I wonder what the replacement costs will be for batteries for this and other EV cars. How long will they last?

(Edit: Now to correct all the typos) What's the cost for a replacement engine in an ICE car, or exhaust system?

I can see the point you are trying to make here, but i have to argue that all vehicles that i own at the moment are 20+ years old with 200,000+kms on the clock and are a long way off needing a new engine/exhaust/transmission. Probably not a good comparison for replacing a battery in an EV car.

I understand that the running costs over time will mean replacing a battery will be cheaper than running/servicing a petrol car in the same time, so I will use that instead :)

I do commend you on being able to afford a EV and getting into that way of helping to protect the environment, but unfortunately i am not willing to move down that path just yet. I have chosen to apply my family and myself into other areas of reducing our impact. Recycling, growing own food, shorter showers, etc

Linuxluver

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#1866961 15-Sep-2017 15:12

jaymz:

Linuxluver:

jaymz:

I wonder what the replacement costs will be for batteries for this and other EV cars. How long will they last?

(Edit: Now to correct all the typos) What's the cost for a replacement engine in an ICE car, or exhaust system?

I can see the point you are trying to make here, but i have to argue that all vehicles that i own at the moment are 20+ years old with 200,000+kms on the clock and are a long way off needing a new engine/exhaust/transmission. Probably not a good comparison for replacing a battery in an EV car.

I understand that the running costs over time will mean replacing a battery will be cheaper than running/servicing a petrol car in the same time, so I will use that instead :)

I do commend you on being able to afford a EV and getting into that way of helping to protect the environment, but unfortunately i am not willing to move down that path just yet. I have chosen to apply my family and myself into other areas of reducing our impact. Recycling, growing own food, shorter showers, etc

Good! "Let's do this". ;-)

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#1866979 15-Sep-2017 15:41

jaymz:

From what i can find, a replacement battery for a Nissan Leaf (not sure of generation) will set you back US$6500. They require you to return the old battery for a $1000 off discount (effectively meaning you are out of pocket US$5500) Early estimates for this battery were as high at $15,000 but Nissan has worked to lower the prices.

But my car is only 2 years old, what if it needs a new battery 8 years from now?

What will Nissan charge? Will there be 3rd party options? Since I can't see into the future I just don't know what the answers will be for 8 years from now.

Not many people buying an EV today will need a replacement battery at today's prices so those figures matter very little compared to what they might be in a few years time.

jaymz

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#1866988 15-Sep-2017 16:03

MarkH67:

jaymz:

From what i can find, a replacement battery for a Nissan Leaf (not sure of generation) will set you back US$6500. They require you to return the old battery for a $1000 off discount (effectively meaning you are out of pocket US$5500) Early estimates for this battery were as high at $15,000 but Nissan has worked to lower the prices.

But my car is only 2 years old, what if it needs a new battery 8 years from now?

What will Nissan charge? Will there be 3rd party options? Since I can't see into the future I just don't know what the answers will be for 8 years from now.

Not many people buying an EV today will need a replacement battery at today's prices so those figures matter very little compared to what they might be in a few years time.

That is one point I find hard to swallow with EV cars. A battery is a critical piece of the car, so knowing the approximate replacement costs would be essential if I was going to consider buying a EV car.

Although the timeline would be different, i would liken it to replacing tyres. Batteries only have a finite life (with today's current technology) so if you are not planning on changing your vehicle in the next few years, you will need to replace the battery.

Not replacing the battery will only rapidly drive down any resale value of the vehicle , which will mean you loose even more money on an EV.

This supports the idea of only purchasing an EV (with today's technology) on a lease scheme.

Holding onto a EV vehicle until end-of-life could prove to be very expensive/frustrating to the owner, especially since you may have to settle for a substandard aftermarket battery if the manufacturer decides they will stop producing them.

Linuxluver

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#1866989 15-Sep-2017 16:04

MarkH67:

But my car is only 2 years old, what if it needs a new battery 8 years from now?

What will Nissan charge? Will there be 3rd party options? Since I can't see into the future I just don't know what the answers will be for 8 years from now.

Not many people buying an EV today will need a replacement battery at today's prices so those figures matter very little compared to what they might be in a few years time.

It helps that the LEAF is outrageously reliable.

That couple who drove their LEAF from London to Outer Mongolia in the recent rally would be typical. He had one puncture, a cracked alloy wheel and lost a mudflap. Hardly mechanical faults......and that's 13,000km across some pretty rough roads.

That was a 2016 LEAF.

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#1867014 15-Sep-2017 16:54

jaymz:

Not replacing the battery will only rapidly drive down any resale value of the vehicle , which will mean you loose even more money on an EV.

Nope, I wont be losing money on my EV.

Over the next 8-10 years I'll save the entire purchase price of the car just from the savings in running costs.

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