Car boom looks like last hurrah for petrol power: Electric vehicles look set to take over?

Forums › Transport (cars, bikes and boats) › Car boom looks like last hurrah for petrol power: Electric vehicles look set to take over?

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#1834653 1-Aug-2017 08:05

@Lastman:
@Dratsab:

@Aredwood: How will a fart tax actually reduce emissions?

It won't. In just the same way that carbon taxes don't reduce the amount of carbon being outputted. But it gives a select few a great cash windfall, and a bunch companies can puff themselves up with [false] pride and say "we're doing our bit".

If a tax doesn't work you may just have to legislate for methane reductions, staged reduction by quotas etc. One way or another this needs to be controlled, even if we may be indifferent as a country, markets and politics will demand it eventually.

Nitrogen caps are gradually coming in. Controlling nitrogen outputs ultimately reduces cattle numbers and this will reduce methane as well.

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#1834662 1-Aug-2017 08:35

Is cattle methane really that bad? There are two cattle beasts per human in NZ. Double that to 4 to account for per adults. How much greenhouse gases to adults emit? From cars, using fossil fuels in logfires, public fossil fuel transport, fossil fuels used to top up power generation?

EDIT. It is, as per @frednz

“New Zealand is in an unusual position, because 43 per cent of its greenhouse gases are caused by methane and 11 per cent by nitrous oxide, the first generated by all livestock, the latter mainly by cows urinating.”

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#1834665 1-Aug-2017 08:39

frednz:

Linuxluver:

The other issue is public awareness of climate change. This government whispers about it occasionally but gives no sign of comprehending how grave the situation now actually is. They do pretty much nothing. In that regard they are no different to most conservative parties around the world that have abandoned any pretense of making policy based on evidence.

You talk about conservative parties, but what policies does, for example, the NZ Green Party have that will really help the uptake of electric vehicles in NZ? Do they propose subsidies for new EVs? And are they going to take the lead of several other countries and ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles in a few years’ time?

Also, bear in mind that more than half of New Zealand’s greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture. For example, we have 6.5 million dairy cattle. In this article, it says that:

“New Zealand is in an unusual position, because 43 per cent of its greenhouse gases are caused by methane and 11 per cent by nitrous oxide, the first generated by all livestock, the latter mainly by cows urinating.”

And globally, aren’t NZ’s greenhouse gas emissions not even one-fifth of 1%? We are such a drop in the global bucket that even if we reduced our harmful emissions altogether, the world wouldn’t notice any difference in the overall situation. Sure, we have no reason to be complacent, but don’t you think the real focus has to be on a country like China which has CO2 emissions of about 30% of the world’s total? I don't think other countries are screaming at NZ to do more!

It's worth noting that the burning of coal, natural gas, and oil for electricity and heat is the largest single source of global greenhouse gas emissions, so be careful of the way you heat your home this Winter!

And Australia. They both have a clear goal to support a green earth, AFTER their cheap coal runs out

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#1834666 1-Aug-2017 08:40

Batman: Anyone knows the policies in China re pollution?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I had the impression than China and USA are the world's top polluters

They support reducing pollution, ONCE their cheap coal runs out

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#1834671 1-Aug-2017 08:48

tdgeek:
Is cattle methane really that bad? There are two cattle beasts per human in NZ. Double that to 4 to account for per adults. How much greenhouse gases to adults emit? From cars, using fossil fuels in logfires, public fossil fuel transport, fossil fuels used to top up power generation?

EDIT. It is, as per @frednz

“New Zealand is in an unusual position, because 43 per cent of its greenhouse gases are caused by methane and 11 per cent by nitrous oxide, the first generated by all livestock, the latter mainly by cows urinating.”

With methane, I guess it's a question of "Is there really more methane being produced in industrial times than before, there were plenty of animals around right?

Unfortunately the answer is yes, atmospheric methane levels are much greater in modern times.

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#1834672 1-Aug-2017 08:49

This is nonsense.

1) Yes there will be more electric car options available. It may look more like a 50/50 fleet in 2040.

2) But petrol/diesel will not disappear in the next 20 - 25 years. Anyone who says so is clueless.

I like electric cars, the idea is great. Less moving parts mean potentially less problems. And i believe they will be come even more power efficient in the future. However, There are a number of hurdles that still need to be addressed. Including charging.

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#1834676 1-Aug-2017 09:00

darylblake:

This is nonsense.

1) Yes there will be more electric car options available. It may look more like a 50/50 fleet in 2040.

2) But petrol/diesel will not disappear in the next 20 - 25 years. Anyone who says so is clueless.

I like electric cars, the idea is great. Less moving parts mean potentially less problems. And i believe they will be come even more power efficient in the future. However, There are a number of hurdles that still need to be addressed. Including charging.

Not hard, just $3 Million to get this https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/27/queensland-to-build-one-of-worlds-longest-electric-vehicle-highways

As in the article other countries are making it happen, I guess they have a modern Govt.

Yes, petrol vehicles will be here a long time, the market will manage that. EV upfront cost, lower maintenance, low fuel costs and the ICE equivalents.

Where to charge? Home, work, supermarket, parking meters, parking buildings, a lot of that is quite easy

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#1834714 1-Aug-2017 09:26

Yes, petrol vehicles will be here a long time, the market will manage that. EV upfront cost, lower maintenance, low fuel costs and the ICE equivalents.

Where to charge? Home, work, supermarket, parking meters, parking buildings, a lot of that is quite easy

funny , driving around the area where i live i dont see any of those things . Guess you live in a big city not like the majority who live in Rural and small town NZ.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#1834720 1-Aug-2017 09:32

vexxxboy:

Yes, petrol vehicles will be here a long time, the market will manage that. EV upfront cost, lower maintenance, low fuel costs and the ICE equivalents.

Where to charge? Home, work, supermarket, parking meters, parking buildings, a lot of that is quite easy

funny , driving around the area where i live i dont see any of those things . Guess you live in a big city not like the majority who live in Rural and small town NZ.

My post supported the argument that charging is not hard to create, see the Queensland article. And that its not hard to have them everywhere. I should have clarified, I meant not hard to have these, although I did put "is" quite easy (to create)

Say an EV is 15k more then ICE. Ouch. But lower maintenance is a plus, free or cheap "fill up the tank" is a huge incentive. But this country doesn't market EV's, it's left to the dealers to do that, so take up is sloooow. From what I read here, its more then doable to go on a road trip in NZ. One day it will be normal, but we need t a Govt who wants a clean green NZ, but we dont have that.

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#1834736 1-Aug-2017 09:46

@Dratsab:

@Aredwood: How will a fart tax actually reduce emissions?

It won't. In just the same way that carbon taxes don't reduce the amount of carbon being outputted. But it gives a select few a great cash windfall, and a bunch companies can puff themselves up with [false] pride and say "we're doing our bit".

It will. Farming is a business. Where it is profitable to farm, people will farm. If taxation (or any other cost) increases, then farms that are marginally profitable will become unprofitable. Those farms will close, or reduce stock levels, or change to some other activity (maybe even forestry). So a fart tax will reduce emissions.

In the same way, carbon taxes work by redirecting economic activity towards creating less pollution.

Without the fart tax and carbon tax and (hopefully to arrive soon) river-polluting tax and water usage tax, in effect we and our children and grandchildren are subsidising farming activities, since we and our children and grandchildren will pay the cost of the farmers' activity in having to deal with global warming, sea level rise, health issues, and inability to use water and rivers ourselves.

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#1834741 1-Aug-2017 09:52

frankv:

@Dratsab:

@Aredwood: How will a fart tax actually reduce emissions?

It won't. In just the same way that carbon taxes don't reduce the amount of carbon being outputted. But it gives a select few a great cash windfall, and a bunch companies can puff themselves up with [false] pride and say "we're doing our bit".

It will. Farming is a business. Where it is profitable to farm, people will farm. If taxation (or any other cost) increases, then farms that are marginally profitable will become unprofitable. Those farms will close, or reduce stock levels, or change to some other activity (maybe even forestry). So a fart tax will reduce emissions.

In the same way, carbon taxes work by redirecting economic activity towards creating less pollution.

Without the fart tax and carbon tax and (hopefully to arrive soon) river-polluting tax and water usage tax, in effect we and our children and grandchildren are subsidising farming activities, since we and our children and grandchildren will pay the cost of the farmers' activity in having to deal with global warming, sea level rise, health issues, and inability to use water and rivers ourselves.

No need to stop farming. The farmers can cease beef cattle, go to lamb and wool or cropping. We can import beef, or only allow cattle where there is no runoff to water supplies. But 2/3 is dairy cattle, we can't exactly stop them and import dairy, unless there is a way to reduce methane, or capture it. Battery farmoing is the easy solution, but that's another sore topic.

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#1834743 1-Aug-2017 09:52

vexxxboy:

Yes, petrol vehicles will be here a long time, the market will manage that. EV upfront cost, lower maintenance, low fuel costs and the ICE equivalents.

Where to charge? Home, work, supermarket, parking meters, parking buildings, a lot of that is quite easy

funny , driving around the area where i live i dont see any of those things . Guess you live in a big city not like the majority who live in Rural and small town NZ.

These places don't have electricity where you live? Putting a charging station wherever there's power is not difficult or expensive.

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#1835060 1-Aug-2017 15:41

darylblake:

1) Yes there will be more electric car options available. It may look more like a 50/50 fleet in 2040.

2) But petrol/diesel will not disappear in the next 20 - 25 years. Anyone who says so is clueless.

I like electric cars, the idea is great. Less moving parts mean potentially less problems. And i believe they will be come even more power efficient in the future. However, There are a number of hurdles that still need to be addressed. Including charging.

Point 1 - true

Point 2 - true

The tone of your post suggest you are arguing against the rise of electric cars but having 50/50 fleet in 2040 would be a huge win for electric. With that ratio there is no reason why the government couldn't ban the sale of fossil fuelled new cars by 2040. There would still be fossil fuelled cars on the road for a while after that but there would be a steady decline.

You did realise that many are talking about stopping the sale of new fossil fuelled cars by 2040, not having no FF cars on the road didn't you? I really hope your prediction of EVs making up 50% of the nations fleet by 2040 comes true, that would be absolutely fantastic.

Charging isn't a hurdle that will slow down EVs - I already have electricity delivered to my house and I don't even have an EV yet. Just let me buy a car with enough range so I only ever have to charge it overnight and there will be no inconvenience ever. There are already cars with close to 600km range, it wouldn't take much advancement to push the range out to more kms than I would drive in a day and then viola - let the car refuel while I sleep! By 2030 we will have enough range to solve the problem, by 2040 that sort of range wont be prohibitively expensive. Two car family will only need to spend more for long range on one of their cars which will save some money for them.

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#1835280 1-Aug-2017 21:32

MarkH67:

darylblake:

1) Yes there will be more electric car options available. It may look more like a 50/50 fleet in 2040.

2) But petrol/diesel will not disappear in the next 20 - 25 years. Anyone who says so is clueless.

I like electric cars, the idea is great. Less moving parts mean potentially less problems. And i believe they will be come even more power efficient in the future. However, There are a number of hurdles that still need to be addressed. Including charging.

Point 1 - true

Point 2 - true

The tone of your post suggest you are arguing against the rise of electric cars but having 50/50 fleet in 2040 would be a huge win for electric. With that ratio there is no reason why the government couldn't ban the sale of fossil fuelled new cars by 2040. There would still be fossil fuelled cars on the road for a while after that but there would be a steady decline.

You did realise that many are talking about stopping the sale of new fossil fuelled cars by 2040, not having no FF cars on the road didn't you? I really hope your prediction of EVs making up 50% of the nations fleet by 2040 comes true, that would be absolutely fantastic.

Charging isn't a hurdle that will slow down EVs - I already have electricity delivered to my house and I don't even have an EV yet. Just let me buy a car with enough range so I only ever have to charge it overnight and there will be no inconvenience ever. There are already cars with close to 600km range, it wouldn't take much advancement to push the range out to more kms than I would drive in a day and then viola - let the car refuel while I sleep! By 2030 we will have enough range to solve the problem, by 2040 that sort of range wont be prohibitively expensive. Two car family will only need to spend more for long range on one of their cars which will save some money for them.

If you have an EV that has a maximum range of about 130km, what would you expect it would cost to charge this vehicle overnight at home to 100% assuming that the battery had gone down to 10km range? The old model BMW i3 might be an EV that would have this sort of range.

I realise that the answer to this depends on what electricity company you are with and where you are located etc, so a rough estimate would be helpful, thanks.

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#1835322 1-Aug-2017 23:03

tdgeek:

frankv:

@Dratsab:

@Aredwood: How will a fart tax actually reduce emissions?

It won't. In just the same way that carbon taxes don't reduce the amount of carbon being outputted. But it gives a select few a great cash windfall, and a bunch companies can puff themselves up with [false] pride and say "we're doing our bit".

It will. Farming is a business. Where it is profitable to farm, people will farm. If taxation (or any other cost) increases, then farms that are marginally profitable will become unprofitable. Those farms will close, or reduce stock levels, or change to some other activity (maybe even forestry). So a fart tax will reduce emissions.

In the same way, carbon taxes work by redirecting economic activity towards creating less pollution.

Without the fart tax and carbon tax and (hopefully to arrive soon) river-polluting tax and water usage tax, in effect we and our children and grandchildren are subsidising farming activities, since we and our children and grandchildren will pay the cost of the farmers' activity in having to deal with global warming, sea level rise, health issues, and inability to use water and rivers ourselves.

No need to stop farming. The farmers can cease beef cattle, go to lamb and wool or cropping. We can import beef, or only allow cattle where there is no runoff to water supplies. But 2/3 is dairy cattle, we can't exactly stop them and import dairy, unless there is a way to reduce methane, or capture it. Battery farmoing is the easy solution, but that's another sore topic.

How does importing beef instead of locally growing beef reduce emissions? A cow is going to fart out the same amount of methane no matter what country it lives in.

Either way, the easiest way to reduce total emissions is through building more hydro. A fart tax will have almost no total reduction in emissions. (it could even increase total worldwide emissions). But it will remove lots of money from the NZ economy. Sure NZ emissions will go down, but how does it help the enviroment if emissions in another country go up by the same amount that NZ emissions go down by?

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