2026 Fuel Prices & Security of Supply

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#3503123 15-Jun-2026 13:16

cddt:

SaltyNZ:

As an aside, am I the only one who is irrationally annoyed every time they hear Trump

No, no you are not.

Nope.

The little things make the biggest difference.

kingdragonfly

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#3503141 15-Jun-2026 14:30

I'm sure everyone's seen the announcement of a sixty days cease fire. It's important to not it's not a peace treaty, no one in the US congress publicly stated to knowing its contents, and it's not signed yet; Friday at the earliest.

The Youtube Channel "What's going on with shipping" has noted the following:

Shipping won't recover quickly even with 60 days of instant perfect peace.

When missiles fly, insurers raise war‑risk premiums dramatically, and they never immediately lower them. Underwriters need weeks of incident-free data: "everyone is playing nice. no bad news". They wait to see if the ceasefire holds. Reinsurance markets move slowly and conservatively, such as London and Bermuda.

Ships have avoided the Strait of Hormuz and rerouted. Once rerouted, operators don’t immediately switch back. It takes weeks to months to unwind.

Port congestion and backlogs take time to clear, at least weeks.

Energy markets are "sticky": as buyers need to renegotiate contracts, sellers need to re‑establish schedules, and inventories need to rebalance. That ain't happening overnight.

Most operators want at least 6 months of stability before returning to pre‑crisis patterns.

Insurance underwriters are watching Oman closely because stability there is a leading indicator for global shipping risk.

Historically there's been a lot of conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, so feel free to investigate the consequences yourself.

kingdragonfly

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#3503144 15-Jun-2026 14:38

Sorry I misread a Reuter's article

"Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said a more expansive agreement would be negotiated during a 60-day ceasefire period, including sanctions relief for Iran.

The fate of Iran's nuclear program, another thorny issue, will also be addressed in those later talks, sources previously told Reuters."

So I should have said

“the ceasefire is a 60‑day agreement.”

The 60‑day negotiation window exists. But it is not defined as a 60‑day ceasefire.

wellygary

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#3503146 15-Jun-2026 14:49

kingdragonfly: Sorry I misread a Reuter's article

So I should have said

“the ceasefire is a 60‑day agreement.”

The 60‑day negotiation window exists. But it is not defined as a 60‑day ceasefire.

My take is that the negotiations will end up being extended and extended. But from the RoW perspective as long as the SoH remains open most will move onto the other issues...

Obama's "deal" took 18+ months to thrash out... The Iranians have plenty of experience in dragging things out and making themselves the focus of US attention in the region..

Iran have always said "We don't want a bomb" but then proceed to continue to enrich uranium... This, like North Korea's actual bomb is a key negotiating chips,

cddt

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#3503197 15-Jun-2026 15:02

ANZ truckometer reports that in the three months March - May, light traffic volumes dropped 4.2% and heavy traffic volumes dropped 2.2% (all seasonally adjusted).

As I asserted earlier in this thread, fuel use is surprisingly inelastic... people who were speculating there would be drops of 20% were wildly optimistic.

SaltyNZ

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#3503199 15-Jun-2026 15:10

wellygary:

Iran have always said "We don't want a bomb" but then proceed to continue to enrich uranium...

After Trump tore up the agreement that they were abiding by even according to US intelligence, and slammed sanctions back down on them. The slowly increasing enrichment levels were 100% to put pressure on the US and everyone else to force them to negotiate to get another agreement again.

But after the way they were betrayed twice by the US and Israel during these negotiations I would not be surprised if now they did decide to pursue a bomb. After all, nobody is bombing North Korea, are they? It would be dangerous, but the Iranians already know they can't trust Trump or Netanyahu even if they are doing everything asked of them. Do they really have anything left to lose at this point? They still have enough missiles and drones to make closure of the Strait a moot point by causing years worth of destruction to Gulf oil infrastructure and they can probably rebuild them faster than the US and Israel can replace their interceptors so they retain a quasi-nuclear option in the meantime.

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wellygary

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#3503204 15-Jun-2026 15:18

cddt:

ANZ truckometer reports that in the three months March - May, light traffic volumes dropped 4.2% and heavy traffic volumes dropped 2.2% (all seasonally adjusted).

As I asserted earlier in this thread, fuel use is surprisingly inelastic... people who were speculating there would be drops of 20% were wildly optimistic.

Diesel is particularly inelastic (heavy traffic)

During COVID it remained at 80-90% of normal even in the Level 3 lockdowns, It was only in the full on Level 4 "Do not leave your house" events that it fell by any significant amount...

gzt

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#3503357 15-Jun-2026 20:03

cddt: ANZ truckometer reports that in the three months March - May, light traffic volumes dropped 4.2% and heavy traffic volumes dropped 2.2% (all seasonally adjusted). As I asserted earlier in this thread, fuel use is surprisingly inelastic... people who were speculating there would be drops of 20% were wildly optimistic.

Dunno how this data is composed. I suspect it's road samples at fixed points and probably captures relatively inelastic typical commuting as well.

Anecdotally people are driving less discretionary kms. 20% less domestic discretionary kms, dunno, could be.

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#3503546 16-Jun-2026 15:02

kingdragonfly: Sorry I misread a Reuter's article

"Iran's deputy foreign minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, said a more expansive agreement would be negotiated during a 60-day ceasefire period, including sanctions relief for Iran.

The fate of Iran's nuclear program, another thorny issue, will also be addressed in those later talks, sources previously told Reuters."

So I should have said

“the ceasefire is a 60‑day agreement.”

The 60‑day negotiation window exists. But it is not defined as a 60‑day ceasefire.

USA is paying Iran USD$300 blllion

Iran is going to collect "fees" on the Strait

you and I will be paying for it

also very fragile as Bibi is not on board and could sabotage it anytime he wants

regardless, i would like to see war end ... but USA lost

cddt

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#3503556 16-Jun-2026 15:21

gzt:
Dunno how this data is composed. I suspect it's road samples at fixed points and probably captures relatively inelastic typical commuting as well.

Anecdotally people are driving less discretionary kms. 20% less domestic discretionary kms, dunno, could be.

That's the problem with anecdotes, yours is different to mine. From what I can observe of the people I know, people are driving roughly the same as before the war started.

DjShadow

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#3503559 16-Jun-2026 15:25

Waitomo pushed an app notification earlier today to say 91 at all their stations is under $3/L, sounds worth celebrating

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wellygary

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#3503565 16-Jun-2026 15:40

DjShadow:

Waitomo pushed an app notification earlier today to say 91 at all their stations is under $3/L, sounds worth celebrating

Lower Petrol prices are good for the consumer, Lower Diesel Prices are good for the Country...

They're currently showed Diesel at $2.76 in Welly, which is a huge fall from the $3.50 it go to in April (I think it touched nearly $4 in when oil got close to $120USD)

For reference before this whole $hit$how happened 91 was $2.55. '95 was $2.75 while diesel was $1.88

$80USD brent is still ~20-30% higher than it was going into this thing, so Diesel in the low $2 would be a great result in the next month or so...

gzt

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#3503566 16-Jun-2026 15:43

The current low prices may be just a result of traders dumping positions with the peace mou announcement. It may take a little more time to settle at a stable price.

SaltyNZ

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#3503569 16-Jun-2026 15:55

gzt: The current low prices may be just a result of traders dumping positions with the peace mou announcement. It may take a little more time to settle at a stable price.

Must be, given that nothing has actually changed yet.

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wellygary

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#3503578 16-Jun-2026 16:43

SaltyNZ:

gzt: The current low prices may be just a result of traders dumping positions with the peace mou announcement. It may take a little more time to settle at a stable price.

Must be, given that nothing has actually changed yet.

Singapore products prices have pretty much tracked brent as it declined...

This is the price that NZ importers will pay to the refiners for shipments, so its what they will be basing their pricing assumptions off...

But they are still up ~50% from before the war

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